I am legitimately thrilled for this weekend’s Big Ten football slate. There are four games I find to be truly compelling and informative for what we should expect for the rest of the season and one other that is at least entertaining as football misery voyeurism. While Penn State and Ohio State should have layup blowout wins, there is real anxiety and hope involved in the other five games being played around the conference. Stick around and gawk at your comrades in our big, beautiful league.
Avoid Unless You Care
Rutgers at Ohio State (-40.5), 3:30pm, BTN
We are fortunate and blessed that there are only two uninteresting slots in the conference this week. There’s very little drama to this game. The Buckeyes are going to roll by 35 or 50 points in a name-your-score game (and if not we will summarily arrest Ryan Day), but maybe you’re interested in seeing some back-up linebackers or wide receivers get some tread.
Northwestern at Penn State (-26.5), 3:30pm, ESPN
Northwestern is in a thrilling four-team race with Nebraska, Indiana, and Rutgers to see who is the shittiest in the conference and the Wildcats are really making a push here. I’m curious to see Penn State’s rushing defense try to contain Evan Hull, but they are in no danger of this being a close or competitive game. Watch if you want to see how many interceptions Penn State can snag.
Football Misery Voyeurism
Indiana at Nebraska (-5.5), 7:30pm, BTN
Like I said, there is a tight race between these two teams, Rutgers, and Northwestern to determine who the true bottom-feeder is. Noted crustacean Tom Allen will square up with the Nebraska Cornhuskers (who are fresh off of a bye week, playing at home, and absolutely desperate for the win). The Hoosiers have seen some improvement week-to-week and also notched some lucky wins, whereas the Huskers are desperate to find a way to lose in new fashion each week. I think that gives Indiana the edge, but it will truly be a horrible football game. I can’t wait.
The Weekend Marquee
Illinois at Wisconsin (-7), 12pm, BTN
Is Illinois going to be able to run the football and keep the ball off of the turf? If so, they have a chance to get a massive arrival win for Bret Bielema against his former team. The Illini have already lost an astounding seven fumbles through four games, the most in the country, and for an offense with no interest in or ability to pass the football against a Wisconsin defense that has basically only seen success via ballhawking this year, staying ahead of the chains and avoiding turnovers is the key to the game. I know that sounds incredibly simplistic, because that’s what every team wants to do, but it really matters in this game.
Both of these teams want to play the exact same way – both have excellent running backs and offensive lines, don’t trust their quarterbacks, and cannot play in games where they fall behind and have to make a comeback. These offenses move very deliberately – both rank in the bottom ten in the FBS in explosiveness – and will want to play the field position game. Expect a vintage Big Ten football game on Saturday.
Michigan State at Maryland (-8.5), 3:30pm, FS1
Seeing a Michigan State team be a two score dog to Maryland, of all teams, is truly stunning. Mel Tucker’s strategy of attacking the portal aggressively every year has not really worked. The defense has not improved structurally from last year, Payton Thorne has regressed, Jalen Berger and Jarek Broussard are good but not Kenneth Walker, and they just got trampled by a Minnesota team that totally exposed their defensive front. If Maryland has Taulia Tagovailoa back in this game, I truly do not see the Terps losing to the Spartans, who have now been blown out twice in four tries.
Maryland showed some real creativity in running plays and short-yardage passing that were missing in previous seasons and this team hung with Michigan for four quarters. I don’t know what Michigan State is supposed to be good at. I don’t see how they differentiate themselves from their opponents in any way. They are just a computer-generated, replacement level football team that has no identity or staples to lean on.
Purdue at Minnesota (-12.5), 12pm, ESPN2
Where did this Minnesota team come from? The return of Kirk Ciarocca to the offensive coordinator role and Mo Ibrahim’s bounce back from last season’s year-ending leg injury have both been revelations for the Golden Gophers. They have, frankly, beaten the shit out of everyone they’ve played through four weeks with a cumulative score of 183-24.
The silver lining for Purdue is that they know that all Minnesota wants to do is run at them and they already played a version of this game against Syracuse, where the Boilermakers defense was excellent for 59 minutes and probably walks away with a huge road win if not for boneheaded penalties late and a poorly-timed coverage breakdown. Purdue very effectively contained one of the best running backs in America, 2021 freshman All-American Sean Tucker, in that matchup. Without Chris Autman-Bell in the lineup for Minnesota, it’s hard to know who they will turn to if Ibrahim is effectively contained.
On the other hand, how is Purdue going to move the football? Aidan O’Connell remains questionable for this game and the Boilermakers will be in dire straits without their star quarterback, in all likelihood. They’ve been a piss-poor running team through the first four games of the season and Minnesota has flashed one of the best rush defenses in America to date.
Purdue is going to need some turnover luck or key breaks going against Minnesota unless O’Connell is healthy and deals for the game of his life.
Michigan (-11) at Iowa, 12pm, FOX
Here is the pitch for Iowa fans: Kinnick is a blisteringly hostile environment where the Hawkeyes have gone 5-1 in their last six home games against top five opponents (as ranked by AP voters at the time of the game). In the era of Phil Parker as defensive coordinator, the four teams that qualify for that stat have averaged three turnovers and none could do better than 6.1 yards per attempt through the air. A stifling Hawkeyes secondary has again been excellent this year and kept this team in games it has no business winning. Without Cade McNamara at the helm, Michigan is relying on young J.J. McCarthy, who struggles with trusting his pocket and pushing the ball downfield with any kind of accuracy, to be able to beat this Iowa defense. The only way Iowa wins is by forcing turnovers and generating scoring opportunities off of those havoc plays.
On the other hand, Iowa does have to actually play on offense too. If the Michigan defense does have a weakness, it lies in the back seven, particularly an injured and relatively inexperienced linebacker corps and a secondary that has been good-not-great. Obviously, Iowa quarterback Spencer Petras and brain genius Brian Ferentz are in no possession to take advantage of this. If they came out with a gameplan that somehow miraculously involves Petras being able to accurately throw over the middle and playing find-the-fish with Wolverine linebackers, Michigan fans should weep, because they will lose the game.
Of course, that will not happen. Iowa will run the football and try to force turnovers and gain field possession steadily by creating havoc for a young quarterback. If McCarthy doesn’t turn the ball over and Michigan doesn’t make special teams mistakes, they will slowly choke the life out of the Hawkeyes and the crowd. If they do allow any positive plays for Iowa when they’re not on offense, this game is in real jeopardy. I cannot wait to watch.