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Boston College
Coaching Changes: Boston College lost defensive coordinator Tem Lukabu and fired offensive coordinator John McNulty. Jeff “Jef” Hafley promoted from within for both of these roles and now features two defensive co-coordinators and an offensive triumvirate of an offensive coordinator, pass game coordinator, and an “associate head coach for offense and offensive development.” There’s no way to view this as anything other than a silly choice and a negative for a team that was in desperate need of fresh blood and new ideas.
Player Departures: Starting quarterback Phil Jurkovec transferred to Pitt, star wide receiver Zay Flowers went in the first round of the NFL Draft, and almost the whole secondary is gone.
Noteworthy Players: All-ACC offensive guard Christian Mahogany missed 2022 with a knee injury but is a likely NFL player. Pat Garwo ran for over a thousand yards in 2021. UCF transfer Ryan O’Keefe has totaled more than 725 receiving yards each of the last two seasons. Donovan Ezeiruaku was an All-ACC edge rusher in 2022 with 8.5 sacks. Elijah Jones at corner and linebackers Vinny DePalma and Kan Arnold are solid returners.
What to Know, Offense: Boston College had a terrible offensive line that should marginally improve with the return of Mahogany and a couple of transfers, but it inarguably gets worse in skill position talent with the loss of Jurkovec and Jones. Hafley did nothing to improve his incompetent coaching brain trust on this side of the ball. The Eagles ranked 122nd in scoring offense and have little reason for optimism beyond that.
What to Know, Defense: The much-vaunted Hafley defense ranked just 68th in yards per play allowed, in large part due to its lack of run-stopping. The continuity and talent additions in the front seven should improve that aspect but the secondary is full of question marks. The pass rush will have to carry the entire defense, which doesn’t work if teams can run down their throat again.
The Drive-By Take: Jeff Hafley is a totally cooked product who has a reputation as a great recruiter and defensive coach. The truth is that he’s just average at both and the decline in offensive talent and coaching ability should project for another miserable season after their 3-9 campaign in 2022.
Projected Record: 4-8 with potential wins at home against Northern Illinois, Holy Cross, Virginia, UConn, and Virginia Tech and on the road at Army. Even if the record is better because of maybe the easiest schedule in America, this program sucks ass.
Duke
Coaching Changes: Duke is replacing defensive coordinator Robb Smith after he stepped away from the game for personal reasons. To do so, they hired Texas A&M co-defensive coordinator and linebackers Tyler Santucci, who worked under Mike Elko during Elko’s stint as an Aggie. The transition should be seamless and Elko’s fingerprints will remain on the defense.
Player Departures: Duke didn’t lose a single player to the NFL Draft, although linebacker Shaka Heyward (honorable mention All-ACC) and safety Darius Joiner (third-team All-ACC) both received UDFA contracts. A pair of offensive linemen are gone for the Blue Devils as well, but this team returners 17 total starters from the team that went 8-4 in Elko’s first campaign.
Noteworthy Players: Nine Duke players made All-ACC in one capacity or another during the 2022 season and seven of them return to this Blue Devils squad, led by quarterback Riley Leonard. I think Leonard is a legitimate pro prospect and one of the absolute best quarterbacks in America as he enters his junior season; he will be the engine of this offense under offensive coordinator Kevin Johns. Slot receiver Jalon Calhoun has over 2500 career all-purpose yards and was an all-ACC selection as a receiver and returner. The three best offensive linemen from last season return. All four defensive linemen starters are back. The two biggest names to know on each line are offensive tackle Graham Barton and defensive tackle DeWayne Carter Jr., both of whom seem to be clear NFL players. Barton should be a top 100 pick.
What to Know, Offense: 98.6-percent of passing production, 99.1-percent of total receiving production, and 99.6-percent of total rushing production return to this team. Its line has three returning starters – the aforementioned Barton at left tackle, left guard Maurice McIntyre, and right guard Jacob Monk – who enter the season with more than 100 career starts between them. Jake Hornibrook had 23 career starts at Stanford and joins the program; presumably, one of him, McIntyre, or Monk will slot in at center while the other two play guard.
I don’t know if I can be effusive enough in my praise. They have every position solved on offense aside from a competition at one position on the offensive line. This was a top 40 unit in yards per play and scoring offense in 2022 and should only be further improved going into 2023.
What to Know, Defense: Joiner and Heyward, both of whom I mentioned above, are real losses for this defense, but the continuity in the rest of the unit and the brilliant defensive mind of Elko make me feel pretty comfortable here. Duke was a bit bend-but-don’t-break last year, finishing 66th in yards per play allowed and 31st in scoring defense, but I think will improve again this season. Adding veteran corner presences Al Blades (Miami) and Myles Jones (Texas A&M) from the portal, who have 46 starts between them, is a boost in the secondary. Unless the loss of Joiner results in a huge dropoff at deep safety, there are no real holes on this defense.
The Drive-By Takes: Duke is significantly improved from a team that went 8-4 last season, for my money. However, they also face a much more difficult schedule. You can argue that there are only four obvious wins on the schedule, two matchups against playoff contenders, and two others against preseason top 25 opponents. Duke basically has to ace the schedule and secure a win against a blue-chip opponent to improve on their regular season record from last year. But with what’s returning… would you bet against them?
Projected Record: 9-3. This is a huge departure from the Vegas over/under being set at six wins going into the season, but I am buying a lot of stock on Duke and Elko, who has improved year-over-year consistently at every other job he’s had. Give me wins against Lafayette, Northwestern, N.C. State, Wake Forest, and Pitt at home and UConn, Louisville, and Virginia on the road to get to eight. Then I’ll take the Blue Devils upsetting either Notre Dame at home or North Carolina on the road to finish 9-3.
Georgia Tech
Coaching Changes: Brent Key takes over as head coach after going 4-4 in the interim role in 2022 following the early firing of Geoff Collins. Key retained defensive coordinator Andrew Thacker and the two secondary coaches, but has an all-new staff besides that. The group is headlined by offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner, who has spent the last three years at Georgia as a quality control coach but has nine years of FBS coordinator experience, and Heisman Trophy-winning co-OC Chris Weinke. Long-time SEC assistant Kevin Sherrer also joins Thacker as co-DC.
Player Departures: The lone NFL departure for the season was second-round pick Keion White, a talented pass rusher at defensive end. Aside from him, the Yellow Jackets 22 players enter the transfer portal, as is inevitable with any coaching transition despite the internal hire. Some of the most notable names were quarterback Jeff Sims (Nebraska), receiver Nate McCollum and safety Derrik Allen (both North Carolina), and cornerback Zamari Walton and defensive tackle Akelo Stone (both Ole Miss). Second-team All-ACC Ayinde Eley and third-team All-ACC Charlie Jones are both gone at linebacker. Honorable mention All-ACC running back Hassan Hall is out too. It seems like Tech’s offense should take a step forward despite the losses, but losing arguably their six best defenders from a unit that finished near the bottom of the league in most categories – especially against the rush – is a real challenge.
Noteworthy Players: The quarterback battle comes down to Sims’ backup Zach Pyron (accounted for 319 yards and two touchdowns in a win over Virginia Tech, his first start) and Texas A&M transfer Haynes King, a former top 150 prospect. King won and lost the A&M starting job three separate times, once to injury and twice to competition. They’re basically the same guy to me, no further thoughts here, but King probably starts. The other skill positions are full of experience and transfer talent, with three SEC receivers joining the program and a top duo in the backfield of Trevon Cooley (Lousiville transfer) and Dontae Smith who have 2330 scrimmage yards between them.
The top returner on defense is third-team All-ACC safety LaMiles Brooks. He’ll be one of the league’s top safeties. Incoming transfers Braelen Oliver (Minnesota) and Andre White (Texas A&M) are a strong duo at linebacker.
What to Know, Offense: The biggest boon here to Georgia Tech is its offensive line, where four starters (all but left guard Pierce Quick) return to the roster and bring just over 60 starts between them. The competition for the fifth spot will be between Clemson transfer Paul Tchio and Prince transfer Connor Scaglione. If this group can keep whoever starts at quarterback clean, the talent around them should be good enough to compete. The aforementioned running back duo is very respectable and landing Alabama’s Christian Leary and Georgia’s Dominick Blaylock (both top 150 recruits) as receiver transfers with former Texas A&M and Duquesne starters Chase Lane and Abdul Janneh joining them is a big boost in talent. After finishing in the bottom 15 nationally in both points per game and yards per play, it’s hard not to imagine this group taking a step forward despite all of the new faces. The offensive line and rushing attack alone should dictate that.
What to Know, Defense: As noted above, all of this turnover on defense is brutal for a team that desperately needs continuity. I do like the two incoming linebackers that I mentioned and the safeties, led by Brooks, should be solid but the defensive line and corners are huge question marks here. I’ve seen some optimism around the ACC about Georgia Tech’s defense, and maybe it’s solely because of the return of the group’s coordinator, but I don’t see it. I think thi is one of the worst groups in the league.
The Drive-By Takes: Brent Key found success out of thin air last season after taking over midstream, but nearly all of the non-offensive line players who were responsible for that success are now gone from the roster. If you think he’s the second coming of Dave Clawson and his continuity or talent level don’t matter, bet on him again. If not, look for a difficult debut season.
Projected Record: 4-8. I have the Ramblin’ Wreck beating S.C. State, Bowling Green, and Boston College fairly easily and finding a way to win one at Virginia or at home against Syracuse.
Louisville
Coaching Changes: Jeff Brohm essentially just imported the Purdue coaching staff – including his younger brother and offensive coordinator Brian and co-defensive coordinators Mark Hagen and Ron English – to Louisville. Seven coaches followed him from West Lafayette and he retained just one member of the former Cardinals staff, defensive line coach Mark Ivey. The new blood comes from offensive line coach Richard Owens (Georgia Southern’s RGC) and cornerbacks coach Steve Ellis (same role at ECU). This is just a slightly revamped Boilermakers staff. I do appreciate that this is his home and alma mater and that Purdue just made a B1G title game last season, but I can’t say that the staff really moves me very much.
Player Departures: Six of the seven Louisville Cardinals who made the top three All-ACC teams in 2022 are gone, three of them NFL Draft picks on the defensive side of the ball (part of five total defensive starters gone). Four of the six who were honorable mention All-ACC players are gone too. None of those ten departures including starting quarterback Malik Cunningham, who was basically the entire offense for Louisville the last few seasons, despite some of his mistakes. Two of their top four rushers and their top two receiving targets (four of the top five as well) have moved on. Of that skill player group, thousand-yard receiver Tyler Hudson (a player we were high on going into last year after his transfer out of the FCS) is the most significant loss. That is a looooot of production out of the door.
Noteworthy Players: Starting quarterback will be led by Jack Plummer, who has 25 career starts and 6500 passing yards to his name as a sixth-year senior – he’s an average college starter, below-average in this league. I really like first-team All-Sun Belt wide receiver transfer Jamari Thrash and returning running backs Jawhar Jordan and Maurice Turner, the first and third backs on the depth chart in 2022. Returning end Ashton Gillette is the top player on defense and he should provide plenty of pressure. Starting cornerback Jarvis Brownlee transferred from Florida State prior to 2022 and now has 24 career starts in the ACC; he should be a Sunday player.
What to Know, Offense: The good part to note here is that Louisville’s offensive line should be solid. Right tackle Renato Brown (34 starts, honorable mention All-ACC) and center Bryan Hudson (24 starts, second-team All-ACC) are back from last year’s unit. Left guard will be handled by Dartmouth transfer John Paul Flores, who has 20 career starts. Left tackle is a competition between Purdue transfer Eric Miller (29 career starts) and Rutgers transfer Willie Tyler (18 career starts) and the loser could compete for the right guard job with junior Michael Gonzales (6 career starts). I noted the quarterback situation above – average – but am pretty high on the running back room. Other than Thrash at wide receiver, the Cards should be able to figure it out with Chris Bell and Ahmari Huggins-Bruce back and Jadon Thompson (Cincinnati) and Jimmy Calloway (Tennessee) transferring in.
Tight end may be a different story and it will need to be resolved quickly given how much Brohm relies on them. Veterans Josh Lifson and Duane Martin are back, but they’re more fullback than tight end; the duo has six combined career receptions for 94 yards and a touchdown after seven collegiate seasons. That leaves quarterback-turned-receiver-turned-tight end Joey Gatewood, a former top 50 prospect on his fourth school in six years, and blue-chip signee Jamari Johnson, a hulking presence at 6-foot-4 and 270 pounds.
What to Know, Defense: Other than Gillette and Stanford edge rusher Stephen Herron, there aren’t names you can point to as proven contributors or difference makers in the front seven. Louisville’s biggest challenge is proving that any of its other defensive linemen – junior end Mason Reiger or redshirt senior tackles Jeffery Clark (a Georgia State transfer) or Jermayne Lole might be the best bets – can play consistently too. Linebacker’s chief contender seems to sophomore Ben Perry, who they like a good bit, but there’s no one known besides him.
The secondary, however, is solid. Brownlee is certifiably good at corner and he’ll be bolstered by Quincey Riley, Penn State transfer Storm Duck, and Georgia transfer Marcus Washington; that is a very good rotation. Safeties Josh Minkins and M.J. Griffin are reliable returners and are joined by Cam’ron Kelly (North Carolina), Devin Neal (Baylor), and Gilbert Frierson (Miami), although Frierson could play more of a hybrid linebacker role.
Basically, if Louisville can find a couple linebackers and defensive tackles each to handle run-stopping responsibilities, this transition to a 4-2-5 could look pretty solid this season. I don’t love defensive coordinator Ron English, but he’s not horrible.
The Drive-By Takes: I like Louisville’s offensive line, running backs, receivers, offensive playcalling, edge rushers, and secondary. They can play outside with anyone in this conference not named Florida State. However, can any of their quarterbacks actually distribute the ball to that skill talent? Can they find anyone to stop the run? Those questions are the difference between a team barely making a bowl and a team with a hopeful 8-4 finish in its prodigal son’s return.
Projected Record: 7-5. I’ll take Louisville leading off with a four-game win streak against Georgia Tech, Murray State, Indiana, and Boston College (why are they playing both GaTech and Indiana in neutral site games in the same year?) and back-to-back wins against Virginia and Virginia Tech at home in November. They’ll steal one of their remaining games against the middle class of the Power Five – at N.C. State, Pitt, and Miami and home against Duke and Kentucky. That’s not a bad year for Brohm but he needs to bring in some roster talent that’s not just transfers soon.