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Syracuse
Coaching Changes: Dino Babers’ was forced to bring in four new coaches to the 2023 staff and is put in a tough position with both offensive coordinator Robert Anae (N.C. State) and defensive coordinator Tony White (Nebraska) leaving for bigger and better programs. The former is a highly regarded coach nationally and makes for difficult shoes to fill. Babers promoted from within to replace Anae, elevating quarterbacks coach Jason Beck to the role. Legendary defensive coordinator Rocky Long was somehow conned into taking this gig in the up state New York winters.
Player Departures: Syracuse loses two top 100 NFL Draft picks from the 2022 roster in offensive tackle Matthew Bergeron and cornerback Garrett Williams, both of whom were key contributors. They were All-ACC performers who departed the roster, as were star running back Sean Tucker, defensive backs Ja’had Carter and Duce Chestnut, and linebacker Mikel Jones. In addition to Bergeron, two other offensive line starters are gone from the Orange.
Noteworthy Players: Quarterback Garrett Shrader, a veteran who accounted for over 3,000 yards in 2022, is back as the heart and soul of the offense once again. Joining him is first-team All-ACC tight end Oronde Gadsden, one of the very best in the country at his position and a truly dynamic receiving target. Thumping linebacker Marlowe Wax is the team’s lone returning All-ACC performer (honorable mention) besides Gadsden. Gadsden, in particular, will be thrilling to watch and college football fans should appreciate him while he’s still in the sport.
What to Know, Offense: Even with Anae conducting the triumvirate of Shrader, Tucker, and Gadsden for the Orange, they still managed to produce just the 70th-ranked scoring offense in college football in 2022. Losing two of those pieces, an NFL player at tackle, and two other offensive linemen will present a challenge for Jason Beck and company. I like running back LeQuint Allen (6.7 yards per carry as a freshman) a good bit and Syracuse did bring in two transfers to shore up the offensive line with its two returning starters. It’s not a perfect group, but they could maintain an average offense once again. Does that mean anything? Who knows.
What to Know, Defense: Syracuse’s back seven was devastated with departures. While I like the aforementioned Wax and 2021 starter Stefon Thompson (who lost 2022 to a leg injury) at linebacker, having Chesnut and Carter poached by LSU and Ohio State stings, as does losing Williams to the NFL. Still, Justin Barron and Alijah Clark are impressive safeties and corner Isaiah Johnson has some of the early makings of a Sunday player. I think the secondary can recover and the linebackers will be good, but the upside for this defensive line is limited. The Orange will need multiple players around defensive end Caleb Okechukwu to step up on the front.
The Drive-By Takes: Prior to 2022, Dino Babers had had losing seasons in his previous three campaigns and five of his last six overall. Anae was a revelation, as was the tough-as-nails presence of Tucker, and the Orange also stole a couple games on blind luck. However, Anae and Tucker are gone and they’ll need to find ways to score with defenses clearly keying on Gadsden in the passing game. If they can find a way to stop the run on defense and the secondary stays steady as it looks to, this can be an average football team that sits right in Babers’ comfort zone between four and six regular season wins. The good news is that the schedule will help.
Projected Record: 5-7. Colgate, Western Michigan, Army, and Boston College at home are nearly guaranteed wins. From there, Syracuse just needs to find a way to win one at either Virginia Tech or Georgia Tech or steal a win at home against a talent-deficient, but much better coached, Wake Forest squad. I think they’ll find one in there, probably Virginia Tech.
Virginia
Coaching Changes: Although the 2022 season was brutal for first-year head coach Tony Elliott on the field and punctuated by tragedy off of it, at least his staff is largely intact. Eight assistants from last year return and only the offensive line and wide receiver position coaches had to be replaced. Line head Terry Hefernan comes to Charlottesville from Stanford, where he was a top performer in an otherwise struggling Cardinal program.
Player Departures: Almost everyone. Virginia loses 13 starters from last year’s, which was already among the worst in its recent history. The Hoos had just one player – wide receiver Dontayvion Wicks – drafted, but losing him and prolific starting quarterback Brennan Armstrong (via transfer to N.C. State) makes for tough sledding heading into 2023. Receiver Keytaon Thompson and tight end Billy Kemp were also key contributors, now gone from the offense. Both starting corners, including All-ACC standout Fentrell Cypress, are gone, as is standout linebacker Nick Jackson.
Noteworthy Players: Defensive end Chico Bennett and defensive tackle Aaron Faumui were both honorable mention All-ACC and should be key contributors to a defensive front that is at least expected to be competent.
What to Know, Offense: Only three starters return to the offense and none of them are offensive linemen. Well, technically, tackle McKale Boley and center Jestus Johnson combined for three starts, but that’s the sum total. Dayton transfer Brian Stevens, 2022 “12th Man” Noah Josey, and a pair of tackle transfers from Penn State and Houston should bolster a group that desperately needs it. Besides that, I don’t know man. The top three rushers are back? Their quarterback was pretty good at the FCS level? It’s hard to take this offense seriously, moreso when you know that Tony Elliott is calling it.
What to Know, Defense: The Hoos do at least bring back six starters on this side of the football and should have a solid defensive line. All four starters from that group are back and two of them were honorable mention All-ACC. Likewise, three of the top four safeties from 2022 are returning to protect the back end of the defense. The question marks come at cornerback and linebacker, which are nearly total unknowns. James Jackson was a most-of-the-time starter in 2022 and should be a solid presence at linebacker, but they’ll need to find answers fast besides him.
The Drive-By Takes: It’s a little uncomfortable to be mean to the Virginia program, given what they suffered off of the field, but this is an unserious coaching staff with a ton of roster turnover and one of the least talented two-deeps in the entire league. I don’t know where I would find optimism from, other than a good-but-not-great defensive line and some depth at running back.
Projected Record: 2-10. This feels more like a 1-11 team, with a sure win against William and Mary, but there is enough muck in the bottom of the ACC that they’ll find a second win. Virginia’s other opportunities come against James Madison, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech at home and Boston College on the road. I bet they’ll find a way to get one.
Virginia Tech
Coaching Changes: The themes are similar for both Power Five programs in this state. Brent Pry’s squad had a brutal 2022, but managed to retain eight assistants to create some continuity in Blacksburg. While offensive coordinator Tyler Bowen is back, both his run game coordinator (Joe Rudolph, Notre Dame OC) and passing game coordinator (Brad Glenn, Cincinnati OC) are gone. Tight ends coach Stu Holt becomes the no. 2 on offense, while the Hokies got a coup in Maryland running backs coach and DeMatha legend Elijah Brooks joining the program in the same role. Ron Crook, who coached Cincinnati’s offensive line to their playoff appearance, joins in the same role for the Hokies.
Player Departures: Leading receiver Kaleb Smith (medical retirement) and leading rusher KeShawn King (transfer to Western Michigan) are gone, as are two of last year’s offensive line starters. The defense loses its best player at each of the three levels: defensive end TyJuan Garbutt, linebacker Dax Hollifield (the team’s leading tackler), and cornerback Chamarri Conner (the only NFL Draft pick from last year’s team). In summary: it’s not looking good, my boy.
Noteworthy Players: I like transfer additions Jaylin Lane (Middle Tennessee State) and Ali Jennings (Old Dominion) at wide receiver, who combined for 1899 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns through the air. Besides that on offense… Woof. Right tackle Parker Clements and right guard Kaden Moore looked good in 2021, maybe they get back to form? The corner duo of Mansoor Delane (honorable mention All-ACC) and Dorian Strong should be in the upper half of the league.
What to Know, Offense: I don’t like their coordinator, I don’t like either of their quarterbacks (Grant Wells, who has always sucked, and Baylor transfer Kyron Drones), and they lost both of their best skill players. They lost a legendary offensive line coach and replace him with someone who I like a bit, the aforementioned Crook, but he’ll need to find two new starters for an abysmal unit that has almost exclusively freshmen in the two-deep. Unless the transfer wide receivers dominate in space and Tyler Bowen finds a way to scheme the ball to them, this unit will likely be putrid.
What to Know, Defense: I am going to start with the positives: the secondary should be one of the better groups in the conference and country. Aside from the corner duo I mentioned, Georgia State nickel transfer Derrick Canteen and returning safety starter Nasir Peoples are rock solid. The problem is just that everyone in front of them seems to suck and they have no pass rush and no expected run stopping ability. Although Pry has a track record as a great coordinator and he may coach his way into competency, this is clearly one of the lower-rung Power Five defenses.
The Drive-By Takes: Virginia Tech had no talent on the roster in Pry’s first year, did little to improve it going into 2023, and has no clear direction on either side of the ball to offer hope at key positions. It feels like more of the same in 2023.
Projected Record: 4-8, and this feels generous. The Hokies take down Old Dominion, Marshall, and Virginia (the latter two on the road) and find a way to get one of the following: at Rutgers, vs Syracuse, at Boston College.
Wake Forest
Coaching Changes: The Wake Forest coaching staff remains remarkably consistent, with five of the ten assistant coaches entering at least their seventh year working under Dave Clawson as head coach. There are only two changes to note going into 2023. The first, that long-time wide receivers coach Kevin Higgins stepped into a general manager role and was replaced by Air Force assistant Ari Confesor. And the second, that Wake poached Chip West from Syracuse to take over for Paul Williams, who left the program for Stanford, as cornerbacks coach. The leadership of both sides of the ball otherwise remains intact, headlined of course by Clawfense maestro Warren Ruggiero.
Player Departures: The name that fans across college football will know is, of course, Sam Hartman. Hartman ranks 15th in NCAA history in career total yardage as he enters his sixth season after transferring to Notre Dame and could push for second place in the record books; he is a clear loss after leading Wake for the last five seasons. Other notable losses include defensive end Kobie Turner, a third round draft pick of the Rams; wide receiver A.T. Perry, a deep threat and sixth round pick of the Saints; starting corner Gavin Holmes, who transferred to Texas; and honorable mention All-ACC defensive end Randall Bothroyd, who transferred to Oklahoma. Three of the primary starters from last year’s offensive line are gone as well.
Noteworthy Players: Honestly, not really anyone. A veteran corps of receivers, four of whom totaled at least 35 receptions and 500 receiving yards apiece, return from last season. Four total honorable mention All-ACC contributors return to Wake Forest from the 2022 team and no one else of note. The receivers are by far the best part of this returning corps, for my money.
What to Know, Offense: Wake loses its best skill player, its looooong-time starting quarterback, and three of its offensive line starters. Devonte Gordon and Michael Jurgens were honorable mention All-ACC players on the OL and the combined experience of Spencer Clapp, Matt Gulbin, Nick Sharpe, and Luke Petitbon should have the makings of a serviceable line. Running back Justice Ellison is exactly that, serviceable, as well; he tallied 1240 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns combined over the last two seasons. Wide receivers Jahmal Banks, Donavon Greene, Taylor Morin, and Ke’Shawn Williams combined for 2,406 receiving yards and 25 touchdowns in 2022 and should be one of the better groups in the country again.
Where the rubber meets the road is the concern around new starter Mitch Griffis, a sub-6-foot leprechaun who basically only played against VMI last season. I was lower on Hartman during his Demon Deacons career than most due to his mediocre accuracy and predilection for interceptions, but replacing his experience with a wet-behind-the ears gnome could be tough sledding for a team that basically has to win every game 45-34.
What to Know, Defense: Wake finished 13th in the conference in yards per play allowed and 12th in scoring defense and it replaces six starters from an already poor unit, including each of its top two pass-rushers and another key defensive line starter and its top tackler. I like defensive end Jasheen Davis and linebacker Chase Jones a good bit and Wake also returns four starters in the secondary, but it’s hard to see the upside for this unit. No real difference-makers were brought in and the defensive front would need a night-and-day improvement, despite losing tons of experience, to see a real change to outcomes here. It should be bottom of the barrel in the league again.
The Drive-By Takes: The Demon Deacons have made seven straight bowl games under Dave Clawson, but it could be in real jeopardy in 2023. The loss of their four best players from last year’s team, including turnover at quarterback, and six defensive starters weakens their strengths and further exposes their challenges. It would take Clawson’s best coaching job yet for this team to get to .500 in 2023, but it’s also hard to bet against him.
Projected Record: 5-7. I have Wake getting clear wins over Old Dominion, Elon, and Virginia Tech and scrapping to win two of the following four: vs Vanderbilt, vs Georgia Tech, at Duke, and at Syracuse. If this were a lesser coach with a worse track record, it wouldn’t be hard to drop this team to 4-8. I know they always find a way to win under Clawson, but this feels like an insurmountable effort even for him.