Nick Saban’s deal with the devil is being reviewed by Satan’s lawyers as we speak and though close to the Dark Prince are indicating they may have found an escape clause. After winning six national championships for the Tide, Saban lost two regular season games for just the second time in the last dozen years. They also lose their Heisman winning-quarterback, two other top ten picks, most of its defense, and both coordinators. Alabama has been the standard in college football since Saban arrived in Tuscaloosa, but questions about development and coaching hires have some — myself included — looking skeptical about the Tide getting back to the mountaintop again under ole Nick. Or at least this year.
Coaching Changes:
Alabama has never been a stranger to coaching turnover in the Nick Saban era. Success breeds envy and envy in the coaching world leads to your assistants being hired away to run their own programs or take on larger roles elsewhere. Still, even for Saban, this feels like a lot. He’ll have two brand new coordinators for 2023 (though Ole Miss and New England may have been doing him favors by hiring away his previous ones) and seven of his ten assistants will be in their first two years with the program. Alabama has been slipping – just enough to be noticeable – since winning the title in 2020 and the vast majority of this staff has not experienced championship success in Tuscaloosa.
Tommy Rees comes in from Notre Dame to take over the offensive coordinator position with Bill O’Brien being hired away back to the New England Patriots. This is, frankly, a baffling hire. The 31-year old never had an offense rank better than 35th in yards per play, finished outside of the top 30 in scoring offense twice in his three years in the role, and just produced SP+’s 49th-ranked offense in 2022. He signed just three blue-chip quarterbacks in six recruiting classes as quarterbacks coach or coordinator at Notre Dame. He also failed to develop a passing offense completely: the Irish never ranked in the top 25 in team passer rating during his tenure and he had just one quarterback, Ian Book (a day three pick who Rees didn’t even recruit), drafted during his tenure. O’Brien was certainly spotty and simplistic at times but he had at least produced some good offenses. I don’t get the appeal of Rees in the slightest and him bringing Tyler Buchner with him at quarterback does nothing to change that.
Kevin “The Confederate Rattlesnake” Steele also comes to town to take over the defense, a somewhat more explicable hire. He’s been a coordinator at blue blood southern programs for 12 of the last 15 years. Despite spending four years on staff at Alabama during the Saban run, he’s still managed to avoid winning a title in each of them, which is a truly impressive feat. Steele has chops and is known as one of the country’s more accomplished coordinators, but it’s worth asking if the 65-year old has lost his fastball. His last three defenses – 2022 Miami, 2021 Tennessee, and 2020 Auburn – have all been awful. Of course, none have the talent that Alabama does, but he finished 38th or worse in scoring defense in each of those years and outside of the top 65 in two of them. He is almost surely an upgrade on the incompetent Pete Golding, but I don’t think Steele is a top of the line hire that makes Alabama a sure thing.
Player Departures:
The first and most obvious names start with 2021 Heisman-winning quarterback Bryce Young, the diminutive no. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and superstar pass rusher Will Anderson, both of whom were top three picks. In total, Alabama produced three first-rounders, five day-two picks, ten total draftees, and three high-end UDFAs who seem like locks to make NFL rosters. The Tide are replacing their quarterback, running back, tight end, two offensive line starters, their top defensive end and outside linebacker, both inside linebackers, and four of their top six defensive backs. That is a brutal combination of players. Jahmyr Gibbs and Young were essentially the entire offense with underwhelming wide receiver play limiting the passing game. Anderson and Byron Young were All-Americans who made the pass rush go, Henry To’o To’o provided a steady presence at inside linebacker, and players like Jordan Battle and Brian Branch defined the Alabama secondary for years. This program always loses major production because of the way it churns out NFL talent year after year, but this feels more extreme than usual.
Noteworthy Players:
Alabama’s offensive line will provide a significantly high floor for this team and it’s headlined by future NFL players in J.C. Latham, Seth McLaughlin, and Tyler Booker. I think the tide should have one of the best units in the country up front and those three, veteran Darrian Dalcourt, and a few others in the mix will be a big part of why. The rest of the offense is largely unspectacular and there is nothing special at quarterback or running back to get into here; receivers Jermaine Burton and Ja’Corey Brooks have flashed at times but have not been consistent top-level performers to date.
Most of the star power on this team comes from its defense, where D.J. Turner will truly be let loose as the team’s top pass rusher with Anderson and Young gone; he is in competition with Florida State’s Jared Verse, Georgia’s Mykel Williams, LSU’s Harold Perkins, Ohio State’s J.T. Tuimoloau, and a handful of others as the best pass rusher in the country regardless of position. Turner plays a stand-up edge rusher role for the Tide, as does senior Chris Braswell, who’s been impressive in a situational role for the last three years. Jaheim Oatis is nasty as a nose tackle and started ten games as a true freshman for this defense last year in that role, which should tell you all you need to know. The secondary is led by Kool-Aid McKinstry, likely the best corner in America or close to it, and veteran safety Malachi Moore. It’s a group that lacks the top-end talent of last year but should still be more than capable.
What to Know, Offense:
I praised the offensive line a bit above, but it’s very impressive how deep these guys are. McLaughlin seems like a lock at center and the aforementioned Booker and Dalcourt will man the guard spots, though former top 100 overall player Terrence Ferguson is pushing to start in his third year and could unseat Dalcourt in fall camp at right guard. Latham remains a lock for right tackle and is a future first-rounder. Five-star prospects Elijah Pritchett and Kadyn Proctor, a redshirt freshman and true frosh, respectively, are battling for the left tackle role and should continue to throughout fall camp. That gives Alabama three five-stars, top other top 100 players, and two super-seniors with starting experience in their top seven linemen. There’s no reason for this unit to be anything other than elite going into 2023.
Now, what’s behind the offensive line?
That may be a slightly different story. Quarterback is a coughing baby vs coughing baby vs coughing baby battle between Jalen Milroe, Ty Simpson, and Tyler Buchner, with Milroe allegedly starting to seize control of the majority of the first-team reps in camp. He has been shockingly inaccurate through two seasons of play, completing less than 57-percent of his passes at 5.6 yards per attempt with an impossibly high 5-percent interception rate. He has been, frankly, incompetent as a passer and given Rees’ track record (or lack thereof) of quarterback development, it is hard to feel excited about this for Alabama. He is a very gifted runner, but would need to see a night-and-day change in his fundamentals as a quarterback to give Alabama a chance in its passing game.
The Tide may need Milroe to give them a boost in the running attack though, because I’m not sure this running back room has anything special in it either. McClellan produced more than 800 scrimmage yards in his junior season while backing up Gibbs, the first fully healthy year that the rising senior has had in crimson. He should be the lead back, but I wouldn’t say he’s on the same tier as recent starters like Gibbs or Najee Harris. Senior Roydell Williams, a replacement-level plugger, should see the ball as well. There’s more excitement around the younger backs though, primarily Jam Miller and Justice Haynes. Miller averaged nearly seven yards per carry in 2022 and has some real downhill speed, but has been dealing with a quad issue throughout camp so far. Haynes, a Georgia legacy, is coming in as a true freshman five-star and seems to have already secured a place near the top of the rotation. He is the player that has the chance to really elevate this room if he’s the player that Saban and company think he is, but relying on a true freshman can be perilous. The good news is that the Tide do have another five-star in Richard Young waiting in the wings as well. This group clearly has talent, but there’s also a reason that they recruited over them with Gibbs as a transfer last fall. I think growth is a reasonable expectation here, but the talk about this being the best room in the country coming from folks in Tuscaloosa is beyond silly.
Tight end, at least, is straightforward for Bama. Maryland transfer C.J. Dippre looks fairly athletic and recorded 30 catches for the Terps last year, but was not one of the five tight ends named to an All-B1G team by media or coaches. Everyone else behind him is a JAG. It’s a clear downgrade from Cam Latu last year, but Rees does like to use his tight ends, so I would expect production from Dippre.
The Alabama wide receivers have struggled mightily in the past two seasons whenever Jameson Williams wasn’t on the field and I don’t expect much to change there. Burton and Brooks are fine players and show some athleticism, but are not elite route-runners and also commit the cardinal sin of dropping the ball too often. Both are prone to highlight reel plays, but the consistency rep-to-rep is just not there and I don’t think either player approaches the top tier performances at the position that fans have become used to. Some folks seem to like Isaiah Bond as a speedster, the no. 5 receiver on last year’s roster, and he should be a bigger role this year but I don’t see any real NFL potential there. The only hope for this group to significantly elevate from the mediocrity it’s been mired in is the addition of key JUCO target Malik Benson. Benson didn’t have a single offer coming out of high school, but dominated JUCO ball as a freshman in 2022 and became the consensus top prospect from the junior college ranks, regardless of position. He certainly has the look of a pro wide receiver physically with his frame and 10.44 100M dash time, but I am admittedly skeptical of someone who’s never played any real competition or developed a real route tree after playing option football in a midsized Kansas high school and then community college competition.
Basically, for this offense to become what Alabama fans expect it to be, they need a quarterback to fundamentally change who he’s been so far and look like a different player, a true freshman or oft-injured senior to immediately become elite, and/or a wide receiver group that’s been inconsistent to improve overnight into a special group because of a JUCO transfer with no experience. All of this while they downgrade at offensive coordinator with a coach who’s been utterly unimpressive to date in his career and has no track record of developing or building a passing game facing more pressure than he ever has before, by far. I just don’t see where the juice comes from for this offense. I think they may end up with a very good running game, but this feels like a totally one-dimensional offense to me that is at severe risk of turning the ball over too often and failing to compete on the elite level of the competition they’re trying to overcome. Maybe I just have hater shades on?
What to Know, Defense:
Alabama’s defensive line starts with a monster in the middle in Oatis. He was just a true freshman last year and should already be one of the best nose tackles in America in year two. He will have to be, because Alabama is searching for some answers in their 3-4 front with Byron Young and others off to the NFL. Getting senior Tim Smith back at one defensive end spot is a boon, but Bama insiders and Saban himself have not been over the moon with his camp and it sounds like fellow senior Justin Eboigbe at the other end spot has significantly outperformed him so far after missing most of last year to injury. The rotation behind those top three is fairly unclear; veterans like Damon Payne, Tim Keenan, and Jah-Marien Latham have been projected by some into the two-deep, but have not really seen playing time in meaningful contests yet. The good news is that every single one of the 14 scholarship players in the position group were blue-chip prospects and Saban has shown a clear willingness to play his young guys here. Keep an eye on true freshman and in-state signee James Smith to rotate in early.
The edge rusher position does lose the inimitable Will Anderson, but D.J. Turner’s return should make everyone feel a lot more comfortable here. He is another top-half of the first round talent, though did see a dip in his sophomore season (Anderson did in 2022 too) from his All-American performance as a freshman. Chris Braswell has a ton of experience at the Jack position (Turner is in the Sam) and he should pretty clearly be second in snap count here. Beyond him, a quarter of freshmen look poised to jostle for positioning. Redshirt freshman Jeremiah Alexander (no. 50 overall recruit in 2022) is the lone second-year player with true freshmen Keon Keeley (no. 3 overall in 2023), Yhonzae Pierre (no. 28), and Qua Russaw (no. 64) all drawing rave recruiting reviews and considered to be potential instant impact players. I would expect liberal rotation early in the season to see who can eat and who can’t. This is one position where Alabama has had no trouble finding superstars in recent years and I don’t see anything here to change that for the Tide in 2023.
Inside linebacker is a bit less defined, as both starters from 2022 are gone and three new faces are projected to be in the top four at this point in fall camp. Deonte Lawson was basically the third man in the interior linebacker positions in 2022 and is expected to assume a starting role at either Mike or Will, though the positions are nearly interchangeable; he looked damn good when starting against Kansas State in the bowl game, with two tackles for a loss against the Wildcats. Georgia transfer Trezmen Marshall is more of a traditional Mike and a bit on the heavy side, but he came to Alabama to get out from under the Dawgs’ loaded linebacker depth chart for his fifth season of college football. He’s got a great chance to start, but Jihaad Campbell and Justin Jefferson will have something to say about that. Campbell was a five-star and the top recruit in Alabama’s class in 2022 and can really strike. Jefferson is a JUCO transfer who looks more like a 4-3 walkout Sam than an inside linebacker, but reportedly ran a sub-4.4 40 and offers some electric athleticism out there. I think we’ll see some subpackages based on personnel with these four, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Marshall finishes fourth in total snaps despite his transfer for greener pastures.
I like the defensive front as a whole. If Turner gets back to what he looked like in 2021 and the ridiculous young or incoming talent at the defensive end and linebacker positions can supplement what he and Oatis have put on tape, there’s no reason for this group not to be elite. Still, there are a lot of young and wildly unproven names being counted on to step up. It’s always possible and this is Saban’s Alabama, of course, but the leap being made is not a small one for a lot of these players. I would characterize the base end positions and really the entire defensive line two-deep outside of Oatis and Eboigbe as worrisome, much moreso than the linebackers. I don’t think there’s any way they fail to figure it out at the four linebacker spots with what the talent they’re trotting out is, but the defensive line is a different animal.
The secondary has quite a few questions to answer in its own right and losing three long-time veterans in Demarco Hellams and, much more importantly, Jordan Battle and Brian Branch is its own challenge. The Tide also lose Eli Ricks, an up-and-down performer who was brilliant at times and a non-factor at others, but is a clear Sunday player to me.
However, this group is buoyed by the return of Kool-Aid McKinstry, the projected No.1 corner in the upcoming NFL Draft. He is a lockdown at one of Alabama’s corner spots and with former five-star redshirt sophomore Terrion Arnold likely stepping in to the other spot, Alabama should be fine here. Arnold started seven games last year, but was benched in favor of Ricks after the Tennessee loss and then missed the LSU and Kansas State games to injury. He struggles off the line and gets beat early by too many receivers, but has the chance to figure it out in his third year. If he doesn’t, Saban also brought in Louisiana transfer Trey Amos and has redshirt freshman Earl Little, a top 100 recruit with versatility across the secondary, competing here, though neither has had much buzz since arriving.
Malachi Moore is also back and he’s a tough player to read. He was second-team All-SEC as a freshman in 2020, but missed the close of the season to injuries and was Wally Pipp’ed by the brilliant Brian Branch for his starting job, but contributed heavily in 2021 and less so in 2022. Bama fans are hopeful that he gets back to form, as he’s expected to take over the starting strong safety role and have the versatility to play nickel when the team goes with a light front. If he gets back to his earlier form, he is a massive piece at safety, but he didn’t really look like that guy last year. Senior Kristian Story, five-star freshman Caleb Downs, and UAB grad transfer Jaylen Key are competing for the free safety role and for reps at the nickel position. Story has been around forever but proven little, Key looks like he’s not of the quality the Tide expect from his previous film in my opinion, and Downs is excellent but obviously completely green. I would expect a rotation here in some capacity until someone emerges, kind of like what we saw between Arnold and Ricks at corner last year.
If I’m being honest, I think McKinstry is the only sure thing in the secondary. Arnold and Moore have the talent and have shown flashes, but not consistency. Little and Story are mostly unknowns. Key and Amos look like above-average G5 players and major steps down from what Bama has run out here before. Downs has all the talent in the world, but he’s a true freshman. If I had to bet today, I would have McKinstry and Arnold at corner and Moore and Key starting the season at safety, with Amos as the fifth man with some positional versatility and Downs pushing Key to take his job. I think that’s a decent group, but not a special one.
Steele clearly has the tools to work with to make this an elite defense. The abundance of five-star talent proves that, as does the presence of playmakers like Oatis, Turner, and McKinstry. But just how green this group is and how much it will rely on new faces, previously inconsistent performers, and a few underwhelming transfers – plus Steele’s own recent track record of mediocrity – has to be a reason to pause. I think Alabama is clearly a top seven or eight program this year, but I just don’t see enough answers at these positions to make me think they’re on the same level as the top title contenders.
The Drive-By Takes:
Alabama is Alabama and the standard is the standard. But the Tide slipped last year and were overwhelmed by Tennessee’s offense and punched in the mouth by LSU’s defense. I think their quarterback play – often the only thing that saved them in 2022 – will be significantly worse and they feature a defense that has to answer so many questions to play at a championship level. There are five or so teams on this schedule capable of testing them and it will take Saban’s best coaching job in a few years to get this program to the playoff.
Projected Record:
10-2. I think Alabama is absolutely losing again to a more complete, experienced, physical, and better-coached LSU team in November, despite coming off their bye week. I think the combination of the high-flying offenses of Tennessee, Texas, and Ole Miss and the impressive defenses of Texas A&M and Kentucky will get them another loss somewhere on this schedule. I just don’t see it at all with this offense and think that Milroe is going to make too many mistakes, rather than covering up for them like Bryce Young did. Counting Bama out is always a perilous exercise and they’re certainly capable of making the playoff, but this just does not have the feel of any of their recent title teams.