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Coaching Changes:
Clemson fired offensive coordinator Brandon Streeter, who had been with the program for eight seasons, and replaced him with TCU offensive coordinator Garrett Riley. Riley worked under Sonny Dykes on TCU’s playoff team and has called plays for his offense since taking over as OC at SMU in 2020. Riley’s offenses have never ranked outside of the top 15 in scoring in his three years as coordinator. I don’t think Riley is going to reinvent the wheel, but he will bring fresher passing concepts and a new perspective to this offense as a whole.
The Tigers had basically become stale after a series of internal hires under Dabo Swinney left for little innovation in the offensive coaching staff. Beginning with the Chad Morris run as offensive coordinator from 2011-14, Swinney then replaced him with proteges Jeff Scott (who began as wide receivers coach in 2008) and Tony Elliott (running backs from 2011 on), who operated as co-coordinators until Scott left to take over South Florida for the 2020 season. Elliott carried the banner in 2020 and 2021, bringing on Brandon Streeter (himself the quarterbacks coach since 2015) as passing game coordinator. Streeter had a one-year disaster as offensive coordinator and was kicked to the curb, now taking an offensive analyst role at Georgia. This means that, in essence, Riley is the first new blood involved in offensive decision-making since Morris was hired in 2011. It is Dabo’s acknowledgment that the Clemson canon had begun to fail him and needed a fresh start, which could be significant for head coach notoriously resistant to change.
Player Departures:
D.J. Uiagalelei transferring out to Oregon State after a frustrating pair of seasons and being supplanted by Cade Klubnik is probably the headline that everyone here already knows. Beyond that, Clemson also loses first-team All-ACC left tackle Jordan McFadden to the NFL and two of their three leaders in receptions, wide receiver Joseph Ngata and tight end Davis Allen (a fifth-round pick to the Rams).
On defense, a trio of defensive line stalwarts are gone, headlined by first-round picks Bryan Bresee and Myles Murphy. Defensive end KJ Henry and linebacker Trenton Simpson, both all-ACC in 2022, are gone from this defense as well. All four were key contributors to a defensive front that was responsible for all of Clemson’s post-Trevor Lawrence success.
Noteworthy Players:
Other than former five-star sophomore quarterback Klubnik, the names to know on offense are junior running back Will Shipley (among the very best in the country) and sophomore wide receiver Antonio Williams, who led the team with 604 receiving yards in 2022 as a freshman. The interior offensive line trio of Will Putnam, Walker Parks, and Marcus Tate all received honorable mention or third-team All-ACC honors and will be critical here as well.
On defense, the superstar is defensive tackle Tyler Davis, who already enters his senior season with three first-team All-ACC nominations under his belt. He is supported by sixth-year former five-star Xavier Thomas at defensive end and defensive tackle Ruke Orhorhoro and three top 100 defensive line signees. Linebackers Barrett Carter and Jeremiah Trotter should be among the best in the nation. The secondary is thin, but junior corner Nate Wiggins is a Sunday player.
What To Know, Offense:
Aside from the addition of Riley, the ascension of Klubnik, and the continued excellence of Shipley, this unit will come down to the improvement of the offensive line and receivers. The Tigers bring back four of their five offensive line starters and are expected to insert former five-star junior tackle Tristan Leigh into the final spot. They should be able to maul in the running game with Shipley and bruising back-up Phil Mafah and Shipley is an explosive player who threatens to score on any carry.
Williams is a star at wide receiver and junior tight end Jake Briningstool is dependable, but the rest of this skill corps needs to step up. There is excitement around sophomore Adam Randall (who is a hulking 6-foot-3 and 230 pounds) and junior Beaux Collins at receiver, but both have dealt with injuries to date. Collins, in particular, needs to be both healthy and consistent to function as an effective deep threat in Riley’s offense, which loves to take the top off of a defense. Beyond those primary names – Shipley and Mafah at running back, Briningstool at tight end, and the wide receiver trio – Clemson is thin on talent and depth. They can’t afford skill injuries or for any of these players to no-show because the small classes that Swinney loves to sign have left them without Plan B options.
Still, Riley being here and this talented group of sophomore and junior players coming further into their own at skill positions with a veteran offensive line providing stability opens the door for a significant offensive jump.
What To Know, Defense:
Clemson’s front seven has three five-stars and seven other top-100 prospects as part of 19 total blue-chippers in these position groups. They are absolutely stacked with talent and many of these players (the aforementioned Davis, Barrett, Trotter and, when healthy, Thomas) have already shown star potential at the Power Five level. The combination of experience and tremendous talent means that both their defensive line and linebacker rooms should be among the best in the country.
The secondary was better than some of the counting stats let on – teams were so avoidant of their run defense that passing was often the only option – but the secondary could stand to take a step forward. The aforementioned Wiggins is a clear NFL prospect at corner as a junior, but partner Sheridan Jones and safeties Andrew Mukuba, Jalyn Phillips, and R.J. Mickens are solid, unspectacular veterans. They should be improved in 2023. Five-star Jaedyn Lukas and top 100 player Toriano Pride also enter their second seasons in the secondary and should push for playing time.
Why They Can Win:
The formula for Clemson is pretty straightforward. They have an elite defensive front that should, once again, be one of the best run-stopping units in America and be able to consistently threaten the passer, though finding a pass-rusher to emerge without Myles Murphy around will be critical. Their linebackers can play sideline to sideline and they will have one of the deepest defensive line rotations in the country, even if it’s a bit young.
Shipley, being spelled by the power back Mafah, and a veteran offensive line with four returning starters and a five-star tackle in his money year make up a powerful ground game (12th in average line yards and 5th in stuff rate last season, per Football Outsiders). The extra experience and a more decisive quarterback should allow the sack rate to cut down and keep the Tigers ahead of the chains. The receiving corps should be the best they’ve had since Tee Higgins went to the NFL after the 2019 season. Riley’s offense and Klubnik’s talent should finally be able to take advantage of opponents through the air again. It’s not difficult to see the passing game make a massive leap from the 74th-ranked team passer rating that they produced in 2022 with maturing receivers, a much-improved coordinator, and a five-star quarterback in his second season. If that happens, this team can play with anybody.
Why It Can Go South:
Clemson’s line wasn’t actually elite on either side of the football in 2022. They ranked 29th in sack rate produced and 60th in sack rate allowed and were good, but not great in stopping the run. The loss of two first-round picks on the defensive line is not easily replaced, even if they have the theoretical talent on hand to do so. An offensive line that loses its best player may continue to be leaky at the tackle spots and prove unable to protect Klubnik, who is a prototypical pocket passer. Outside of Shipley, who is elite, and Williams, who was pretty good, there are no top-tier weapons on this team for Klubnik to distribute the ball to. Riley may be stuck making chicken salad out of chickenshit if off-season development doesn’t account for more dynamic receiving targets.
The secondary also continues to be a concern and still appears to have just one NFL player in the lineup, unless Pride or Lukas supplant veterans in year two. Can this team actually stop a passing offense with the receivers that an Ohio State, LSU, Florida State, Alabama, et al would throw at them if they got to the dance? Is this another version of the 2020 Clemson team that could be ripped apart through the air when it encountered NFL receivers? They can match up well against some opponents, but losing your best pass-rushers and still fielding a shaky secondary is a concerning duo when the goal is to play for and win national championships.
Projected Record:
11-1. I think the Tigers are in this dance all the way until the end of the season. They go on the road to quality teams in Duke and South Carolina and catch top 25-ish opponents Notre Dame and North Carolina at home, all of which they have to be careful with, but the real threat on the schedule comes in the form of a home game against Florida State on September 23rd. Clemson is breaking in a new coordinator and quarterback and Florida State is anything but; the Seminoles are a veteran, talented group that nearly caught Clemson last year and will blood themselves against LSU in the opening weekend. That game in Death Valley will be pivotal to both programs, but I have it at Clemson’s lone loss of the regular season. The good news is that even if they drop it, the divisonless schedule of this year’s ACC offers potential for a rematch in Charlotte in the title game.
I’m not buying on Clemson as a legitimate playoff contender until I see that their wide receivers and secondary can play with the top teams in the country. This feels too much like the 2020 version of Clemson that snuck into the playoff but got worked by an Ohio State team that threw all around the yard on them. The secondary isn’t quite that bad and the team is more athletic as a whole, but there are similarities. I will say that it feels like the best rushing attack we’ve seen from Clemson in some time.