I am trying to disabuse myself of the “Coach X always does Y” notions in my head. This season, I have watched Steve Sarkisian beat Alabama this season and position his Texas squad for a likely December play-in game for the playoff. I have seen Mike Bobo’s dumb ass build a high-powered passing attack with a green quarterback. I am witnessing Brian Kelly fielding one of the country’s best quarterbacks and not throwing him under the bus once.
Yet, I can’t shake the narratives about James Franklin and Ryan Day in my head. Franklin is 1-11 in his Penn State career (1-17 overall as a head coach) against ranked opponents on the road. He is 1-8 on the road at Michigan and Ohio State while running the Nittany Lions. Ryan Day is 1-5 all-time against top-five opponents while coaching the Buckeyes and has folded under the pressure against elite opponents almost every time.
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We are truly witnessing Tweedledee and Tweedledum on these two sidelines. Two masterful recruiters who have built stacked rosters full of NFL players, led by five-star quarterbacks from each other’s home states, but can’t win the big one. Franklin is certainly worse in this regard than Day and has had more time to prove he’s a loser, but we are witnessing a fascinating battle. Day and Ohio State are clawing to remain in the upper echelon of College Football Playoff contenders after back-to-back embarrassments against Michigan and a nasty blown lead against Georgia. Franklin is trying to prove that Penn State is finally nationally relevant again and can get over the hump to avoid just being an also-ran behind the Big Two.
None of these narratives really matter when these two teams strap on the pads tomorrow afternoon – or at least they won’t until someone calls a fake punt at the wrong time or botches a clock management scenario to cost a scoring opportunity.
SP+ has the Buckeyes as 5 point favorites.. Vegas says it’s a 4.5 point differential. FEI has the Buckeyes by 6. No reputable picker anywhere is viewing this as a blowout because these are two teams firmly in the mix for the College Football Playoff in a year where it feels difficult to sort between the top 10 or 12 squads in the sport.
Penn State brings perhaps the country’s best defense to the Shoe and it is a truly dominant unit. Just for illustration purposes, this is how the Nittany Lions rank in almost every major national category on defense:
- 1st in total defense
- 1st in yards per play allowed
- 1st in defensive success rate
- 1st in red zone trips allowed
- 1st in passing defense success rate
- 1st in QBR allowed
- 1st in yards per passing attempt allowed
- 1st in completion percentage allowed
- 2nd in scoring defense
- 2nd in defensive SP+
- 2nd in plays of 20+ yards allowed
- 2nd in points per play allowed
- 2nd in touchdowns per game allowed
- 2nd in sack rate and total sacks
- 3rd in defensive FEI
- 3rd in rushing defense success rate
- 3rd in yards per carry
- 3rd in rushing yards per game
- T-5th in red zone scores per game allowed
- 6th in TFLs per game
- T-9th in turnovers forced per game
- 9th in third down conversion rate allowed
- 11th in opponent time of possession percentage
You cannot identify a weak point on the Penn State defense because one does not exist. If you can think of a meaningful stat that I missed, let me know. You could point out that they’ve played just one team (West Virginia) ranked in the top 80 (!!!) of either offensive SP+ or FEI, but they still rank excellently in all of the opponent-adjusted metrics. Future Sunday players abound on this roster: Chop Robinson, Kalen King, Adisa Isaac, Abdul Carter, Dani Denis-Sutton, Johnny Dixon, take your pick. They don’t have a lights out defensive tackle but every other level of the defense is stacked with Guys and they have performed even better than the already very high expectations they held. I think it’s legitimately the best defense in America.
Conversely, Ohio State’s offense has been relatively disappointing. The Buckeyes offense still sits in the top ten of SP+ and FEI, but it frankly doesn’t look very special to date. They rank an abysmal 100th in rushing success rate, they’re just above average on converting third downs and creating explosives (38th in both), and they’re pretty bad in the red zone (tied for 54th). They can still throw the football, but even that seems to have taken a step back. Much of that can be attributed to Kyle McCord looking hesitant to pull the trigger and throw someone open, but even the sterling Marvin Harrison Jr. has taken a dip when the ball gets to him. PFF (I know) has him at just 15-percent on contested catches with a 14-percent overall drop rate, both the worst among any starting wide receiver in this game.
I think Ohio State is pretty clearly not the elite, nationally dominant offense that we’re used to seeing. Some of Ryan Day’s annoying playcalling and run game design issues are coming home to roost with a green quarterback and a pretty clearly worse offensive line (even if the statistics don’t support the doom-and-gloom many of the Buckeye faithful feel). Something just feels off with these guys, but there is reason to believe they’re getting better week over week and solving some of their issues. Increased use of gap run design overall and quarterback runs in the red zone combined with a new starter settling in after the midway point of the season seem to be leading to improvements and you maybe just have to hope and pray that Day will continue to lean on that growth and not try to outsmart himself (again) in a major game.
On the other hand, I’m not so sure that Penn State can actually move the football on Ohio State’s defense. The Buckeyes are a great bend-but-don’t-break defense but that is just a touch too leaky against the run, but holds up very well against the pass and is rock solid in the red zone (8th in red zone scores per game and T-6th in red zone scoring percentage allowed). They really don’t finish pressure against quarterbacks or create negative plays (104th in sack rate, 85th in tackles for loss per game) altogether, including turnovers (T-90th in turnovers forced per game).
Given that they’re playing an offense that prides itself on running the football and staying ahead of the chains with a quarterback that just hits checkdowns and doesn’t turn the ball over, I’m a bit concerned they’re playing directly into Penn State’s hands. The Nittany Lions run the ball more than all but one Power Five team, Allar has not yet thrown an interception, and they rank in the top ten in both sack percentage and tackles for loss allowed. Penn State absolutely cannot create explosives (T-129th in plays of 20+ yards, dead last in plays of 40+) and does not throw the ball downfield, but they do keep the ball for large chunks of time and consistently get four or five yards per play all day against you with a methodical offense.
We saw Notre Dame do exactly what Penn State likely wants to do in the Buckeyes’ matchup in South Bend. During their first six possessions of the game, excluding a first-half kneeldown with a second remaining, Notre Dame averaged 9.7 plays, 58.2 yards, and just under six minutes of game clock per drive. Those drives may have yielded only 14 points, but they kept the ball away from Ohio State’s offense and drained the defense, getting more effective as the game wore on.
Knowing that, you would hope that Ohio State is planning to run a game plan something like what we saw from Jim Knowles last season in Columbus or during his tenure at Oklahoma State. The Buckeyes cannot allow Notre Dame to pick up those short-yardage rushing chunks play after play while the clock whittles away. They need to put the game in the hands of a timid and inaccurate Drew Allar playing in his first big road game and dare Penn State’s mediocre wide receiver corps to beat them. Ryan Day seems gun shy about this after a bad Michigan passing attack torched them with exactly that gameplan in the Shoe last November, but it doesn’t mean it’s not the correct move. PTSD over a rivalry ass-whooping cannot lead to a bad defensive gameplan a year later in a game with rivalry stakes.
At this point, you’ve all likely heard my rants about Ohio State’s special teams and the demon known as Parker Fleming. The Buckeyes rank 126th nationally in punt returns of 20+ yards allowed and 75th in net punting. They’ve taken key penalties, including an explicable holding on a fair catch, and botched simple snaps. Penn State features a dangerous punt return game that produced two touchdowns in that phase against UMass last week and ranks 4th in the country in punt return yardage. Special teams have cost the Buckeyes before, including prominently last year against Georgia and Michigan, and they absolutely could on Saturday as well.
I have gone back and forth on my prediction for this game and I do think it’s tight enough that a couple of key plays can absolutely swing one that should be played in a phone booth. A key special teams breakout for Penn State, a strip sack on Kyle McCord, or an explosive play from one of Ohio State’s many weapons are all enough to change the balance in this one, the same way TreVeyon Henderson’s 61-yard touchdown run in South Bend did against the Irish. You could argue that some of the Ohio State path to victory I’m forecasting is based on what the Buckeyes could or should do, and not what they have done, but that’s necessary in a small sample size sport where competition levels are uneven and you don’t get to see much from teams before huge games like this.
I simply cannot shake how much of a loser James Franklin is. In a game with clear playoff implications between two teams fighting for a conference crown and a berth in the big dance, I have to lean on Franklin’s totally inept track record in games of this magnitude. This is a person who cannot do what it takes to win when the chips are down if his life depended on it and a win here would change the entire outlook of his career and the Penn State program. I just don’t have that kind of faith in him. Give me the Buckeyes 23-20 in a nailbiter on the Olentangy.