Wisconsin (-10) at Northwestern, 3:30pm, BTN
I cannot imagine why you would watch this game unless you are a fan of one of these two teams. There’s nothing we’re going to learn about the Jim Leonhard era on Saturday that will be instructive for the future. Northwestern is a terrible football team and I would be shocked if they can’t handle them comfortably. The Wildcats should be shut out or close to.
Nebraska (-3) at Rutgers, Friday at 7pm, FS1
The Hater’s Ball of the week. Nebraska got a huge leg-up in escaping the “Worst team in the conference” charges after they beat Indiana by two touchdowns last week, but they’re not out of the woods yet. A game at Rutgers on Friday night has enough potential to be a real setback for the Huskers in this competition that only you guys and me are paying attention to, especially given Nebraska’s opening game loss to a truly awful Northwestern team. A Nebraska win means Indiana is in a really bad place unless they can steal a win at Rutgers.
Ohio State (-26.5) at Michigan State, 4pm, ABC
Again, this is not a compelling football game. Sparty cannot defend the pass, they can’t pass the ball, so what are we doing here? Ohio State beat the soul out of this team last year and should do so again comfortably this season, being favored by nearly four touchdowns. The only compelling storyline on Ohio State’s schedule right now is just following along to see if any of the injury issues lead to a position battle.
Michigan (-22) at Indiana, 12pm, FOX
Indiana was one of the luckiest teams in the country to start the season, winning two games they had no business winning, and are now regressing back to the mean hard. A non-competitive road loss to Nebraska is tough and should be followed up by Michigan blowing out the Hoosiers in Bloomington. Blake Corum is a delight to watch, so tune in for him.
Purdue at Maryland (-3), 12pm, BTN
This week is a pivotal moment for Maryland football under Mike Locksley. This is the sixth time since 2010 that Maryland has started 4-1 or better to start the season (and the second under Locksley, as the Terps did it in 2021 too). In the previous four campaigns to this one that began 4-1, they went 1-3 in game six of those schedules, followed up by a combined 10-18 after that point. All this is to say, Maryland has started off hot to begin the season and then faltered when the schedule got a little more challenging time and time again. It is their favorite thing to do.
Maryland has a chance to change that narrative. After staying competitive with Michigan for four quarters and notching big wins against SMU and Michigan State early in the season, Locksley’s group now enters a stretch with Purdue and Indiana coming to town and a road game at Northwestern prior to the Halloween bye week. These are three eminently winnable games that would set up the team for its best season since they finished ranked way back in 2010. There is no big, bad Ohio State in the middle of this stretch to mess up momentum. It is Maryland against a roughly comparable Purdue team, at home in College Park, with a fairly healthy team, a good running game, and what projected to be a deep group of receivers.
Purdue, on the other hand, has just notched a huge road win against a red-hot Minnesota team, even if it came without Mo Ibrahim in the game for the Gophers. They are positioned to be a contender in the West – they’ve already beaten Minnesota, Wisconsin and Nebraska fired their coach, Iowa comes to West Lafayette without an offense, Northwestern is fucking awful, and Illinois is not a proven commodity yet. This was not really supposed to be a strong team for Purdue without any offensive playmakers returning, but Iowa transfer Charlie Jones has been a revelation and the run defense has been excellent for the Boilermakers.
All this is to say, there is a lot more on the line than we usually expect to see in a Maryland-Purdue contest (read: anything). Both of these fanbases can and should have expectations for the rest of the year with a wide open path in front of them. Maryland can’t realistically expect to compete for the Big Ten East, but a ranked finish would be a massive step forward for the program. Purdue could get a crack at competing for a conference title for the first time since the Joe Tiller era. I am legitimately looking forward to this game.
Iowa at Illinois (-3.5), 7:30pm, BTN
The job that Bret Bielema has done at Illinois is stunning and this is a huge game for his Illini program in primetime. Illinois’ early season loss to Indiana is looking more and more like one of the most inexplicable results of the season, except to say that turning the ball over four times and nearly tripling the other team’s penalty yards is a worrying sign. Regardless, beating down Wisconsin and Virginia by three scores each, the former on the road, is a true arrival moment for Bielema’s guys. Chase Brown has been the best running back in America through the first five weeks of the season, defensive coordinator Ryan Walters’ defense has been among the best units in the country, and everything is moving well for this veteran Illinois team.
The chance to catch Iowa at home gives Illinois a real opportunity to assert themselves as the favorite in the Big Ten West. Purdue and Minnesota will still have to come to Champaign-Urbana and only Michigan should be any real competition beyond that. A double-digit win season for Illinois is very much possible now. But, they have to actually beat Iowa first. The creativity of Illinois’ run game has been a joy, but the Hawkeyes thrive on shutting that down and playing inside the box. Then again, it’s nearly impossible to imagine Iowa actually moving the ball on Illinois’ defense. Opponents have averaged just 229 yards per game against Illinois this season and Iowa ranks 130th in the country in yards per game and 108th in yards per play. I don’t see the path to victory for Iowa here, it would have to involve a bizarre number of turnovers.