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Coaching Changes:
The only loss from Florida State’s coaching staff following 2022 is defensive backs coach Marcus Woodson, who had been with the program since 2020. Woodson left Tallahassee to take on a role as co-defensive coordinator and safeties coach for Arkansas and Sam Pittman. He is replaced by former NFL All-Pro corner Patrick Surtain after the standout spent 2022 working for the Miami Dolphins and the previous six years as the head coach of American Heritage in south Florida, one of the country’s top talent factories.
Other than Woodson and co-defensive coordinator Randy Shannon (who joined the staff in 2021 as an analyst before shifting into his current role last year), the other eight assistants were all original members of Mike Norvell’s first staff for the Seminoles. That kind of continuity is very impressive at this level of college football and a key reason for the year-over-year improvement in on-field results and recruiting for Norvell.
Player Departures:
Florida State accounted for a whopping 14 All-ACC selections in 2022 and only four of them depart from the program. First-team All-ACC guard Dillan Gibbons, first-team All-ACC safety Jammie Robinson, honorable mention running back Treshaun Ward (Kansas State transfer), and honorable mention defensive tackle Robert Cooper (UDFA, Seahawks) are the only players to leave from that group. Robinson, in particular, stings and he was a very talented safety on the back end.
There is some turnover at receiver and tight end that’s worth noting. The ‘Noles had 11 pass-catchers account for 100 or more receiving yards and four of them – Mycah Pittman (Oregon), Malik McClain (Penn State), Ontario Wilson (UDFA, Los Angeles Chargers), and Camm McDonald (UDFA, Green Bay Packers) – are gone from the program. Pittman and Wilson were the second and third receivers on the roster and McDonald was the team’s top tight end.
I also think that, if Florida State had to lose one of their four contributing running backs from last year’s team, Ward would not have been at the top of that list. He is an impact player and while the Seminoles are perfectly fine at running back, you still want to keep guys of his caliber.
Despite that turnover, there is a significant amount of continuity and 17 starters return here. You could also argue that they have upgraded talent at every position besides safety from last year’s squad via transfer portal acquisitions.
Noteworthy Players:
Jordan Travis is not just a steady, veteran hand at the position that makes few mistakes, he is a playmaker with both his arm and legs and can really push the football downfield when called upon. He’ll be throwing to Michigan State transfer Keon Coleman and returning All-ACC standout Johnny Wilson, both of whom are ranked within our top 15 receivers nationally heading into 2023. I am also enamored with Trey Benson, the team’s top running back and one of the best players in the country at his position as well.
I sound like a broken record here, but it’s because the skill position talent is elite. Tight end Jaheim Bell, a transfer from South Carolina, is a former all-SEC player and was the top player at his position in the portal too. This team is silly with skill talent. The offensive line is replete with top returners too, but I’ll break those players down a little further shortly.
Defensive end Jared Verse has 23.5 sacks in his last three seasons and was a third-team All-American in 2022; he very well may be the best pass rusher in the country coming into this season. Defensive tackle transfers Braden Fiske (Western Michigan) and Darrell Jackson (Miami) are disruptive options who will pair very well with honorable mention All-ACC tackle (Jackson was as well) Fabian Lovett. Linebacker Tatum Bethune, cornerback Renardo Green, Virginia transfer Fentrell Cypress (a corner/nickel), and safety Akeem Dent all appear to be difference-makers too. I think this is just a stacked, elite defense from top to bottom.
What to Know, Offense:
This Florida State offensive line is absolutely silly with talent and experience. Second-team All-ACC left tackle Robert Scott has 29 career starts entering his fourth season and should lock that spot down again. Darius Washington started seven total games in 2022 – six of them between the two tackle spots and one at center – with 27 career starts under his belt and could either compete there or push to the interior. Bless Harris, a fifth-year senior who arrived at the program with seven starts at Lamar, opened 2022 as the right tackle starter before missing the remainder of the year with an injury.
Jeremiah Byers, a UTEP transfer and the top tackle in the portal, has 30 starts under his belt. Third-team All-ACC right guard D’Mitri Emmanuel, with 38 career starts, is back again. Honorable mention All-ACC center Maurice Smith returns with 29 career starts. Guard Casey Roddick transferred in from Colorado with 30 career starts under his belt. Auburn’s Keiondre Jones, a third-team All-SEC performer, brings in 22 career starts. Even backup left guard Thomas Shrader started a game back in 2020.
Okay, phew, that was a lot. I just threw a lot of numbers at you, but that is nine linemen with 207 career starts between and 12 all-whatever nominations. This is just an impossibly deep group, however the starting lineup ultimately shakes out.
Travis is a cream-of-the-crop option. So are his top two wide receivers, bolstered by younger back-ups Kentron Poitier (over 20 yards per reception in 2022), Ja’khi Douglas, and Darion Williamson. If landing the ultra-dynamic Bell wasn’t enough, they also brought in two-time Division II All-American tight end Kyle Morlock too. Benson, who I noted above, is backed up by pass-catching back Laurence Toafili and young standout Rodney Hill, who has been impressing in practice.
The Seminoles were sixth in the country in yards per play and an elite offense overall in 2022 and should only get better with all of these additions.
What to Know, Defense:
Jared Verse is essentially a one-man pass rush, but he’s also bolstered by a deep, talented defensive line. I noted the defensive tackle rotation of Lovett, Jackson, and Fiske above and those latter two can especially get after the passer from the interior. Redshirt sophomore Patrick Payton was the league’s freshman of the year and recorded six sacks in 2022. South Carolina transfer Gilber Edmond should likely rotate in with Verse and Payton at the defensive end spot. Bethune and Kalen DeLoach will start at linebacker to round out the defensive front of this 4-2-5 and the only hole you could point to is maybe a lack of depth at linebacker behind those top two. This is a nasty, deep, physical group.
I pointed out the series of impact players in the secondary, but I want to reiterate it here. Renardo Green is a returning All-ACC corner and they bring in Virginia’s Fentrell Cyrpess (second-team All-ACC) to start opposite of him; fifth-year senior Jarrian Jones, with 20 career starts, will also play heavily at corner and nickel. Akeem Dent is the top safety here, a former five-star with 30 career starts entering his fifth and final season for the Seminoles. Shyheim Brown started a couple of games at safety during injuries last year and he should be the fifth starting defensive back. Unlike the defensive line, the ‘Noles don’t have a ton of depth behind the top five defensive backs.
Also unlike the other top playoff contenders nationally, FSU hasn’t stacked top-five class upon top-five class in recruiting to build a litany of blue-chippers behind the starting 11. If this group stays healthy, they should once again be among the best in the country, like they were last year. This was basically a good-but-not-great group that was top 25 in nearly every mark in the country aside from turnovers forced – 103rd in this mark, where they could stand to improve – and yards per carry allowed, where they were just fine. The defensive line depth additions and improved pressures could make for a nasty group as long as the safeties hang in without Robinson.
Why They Can Win:
Florida State has the talent on both sides of the football to play with any team in America. They’ve had to come by it mostly inorganically – they’ve not signed a top ten class under Norvell – but they’ve done it nonetheless. Staff continuity, roster continuity, very intelligent transfer portal acquisitions, and use of the extra COVID years to build experience have left this team legitimately expecting to win the conference. They have two of the best lines in the country, their quarterback and skill positions are elite, and they have the talent at defensive backs to cover the country’s top receivers.
If you assume that Jordan Travis stays healthy, the running back room doesn’t suffer too much from the loss of Ward as Hill matures, and the pass-catching corps takes a step forward with Bell, Coleman, and others transferring into Tallahassee, it is not difficult whatsoever to see an elite top-ten offense for the Noles.
Likewise on defense, the transfer additions should make the defensive front even friskier and replacing a fifth-round pick at safety should not be a death knell for any secondary. Florida State was very good last year and is now more talented, more experienced, and deeper. They have the horses in the two-deep to play with anybody right now and good health luck can allow that to happen into December and January.
Why It Can Go South:
The lack of recruiting dominance means they cannot afford the injuries to keep rolling that teams like Georgia, Ohio State, or Michigan could this season (aside from the Seminole offensive line). The Seminoles’ best class in the last four years was ranked 16th nationally, which is just a massive step below every other team they are trying to play with. They also play Clemson on the road and LSU in a neutral site game and can only afford to drop one if they want to make the dance for the playoff. Beyond that, they could very well play Clemson twice (with a conference championship game) as the ACC moves to its divisionless scheduling model for the first time.
Teams have made the playoff before without that kind of recruiting depth, and even the national title game, as evidenced by 2022 TCU and 2014 Oregon, but those examples are few and far between. Florida State would be a clear outlier in the recent history of the sport with a schedule like this. At the same time, it’s worth asking how much some of the old rules will apply with the massive roster fluctuation brought about by the one-time transfer rule. This could be a use case to test it.
Projected Record:
11-1. The only potential losses on this schedule come very early in the season, in a neutral site game against LSU in Orlando on Labor Day weekend and in a road game at Clemson on Sep. 23. If you wanted to find another challenge, you could maybe squint at a road contest at Pitt in November or one of the rivalry games at home against Miami or on the road at Florida. I truly do not believe that those teams are of the same caliber as Florida State, however.
This LSU squad is a juggernaut as well and I have both of these programs in my own personal top five – along with Georgia, Ohio State, and Michigan – and it will be simply one of the best games of the year. Florida State caught the Tigers at the right time last year, but both are similarly experienced heading into 2023 by my count. The other Tiger opponent being a road game is tricky, but I just don’t know that I am buying that this young Clemson team will be ready to go that early into September with so many new pieces. I am so bullish on Florida State.
Can any of you talk me out of this? I know all of the math on what kind of recruiting a team needs to have to win a title – historically, more blue-chip players than not (Bud Elliott’s blue-chip ratio) and a top-five recruiting class in the last four years – and I think they probably fall short of actually winning the thing, but I have them making the dance this year.