Weasel Weekly is Meet at Midfield’s weekly look at Big Ten men’s basketball presented by guest contributors Drew Hamm and Stefan Zonia.
You can find Drew on Twitter at his personal account, @drewhamm5, where he talks Philly sports, Wisconsin sports, and other nonsense. You can also subscribe to his Wisconsin basketball/football/volleyball newsletter @BadgersBallKnow where it’s all UW, all the time.
Stefan can be found on Twitter @iamstefanzonia where he discusses Michigan sports (college and pro), sports betting and entertains any and all internet absurdities.
We split up the conference in a fantasy draft format. Here’s a quick recap of who is covering who:
Stefan – Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Nebraska, Ohio State, Purdue and Rutgers
Drew – Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Minnesota, Penn State and Wisconsin
Purdue cut down the nets of the very normal Big Ten Tournament against 10-seed Penn State (which almost made an incredible last-minute comeback). This week, Drew and take a tour of the conference to note everyone’s BTT performances and their postseason outlook. Will any team make it to the second weekend? Probably not!
Scheduling note: We will be off until the conclusion of the postseason. We will then have a final year-in-review article that also takes a look at expected roster turnover and incoming recruiting classes for each team.
Illinois
KenPom rank: AdjEm 33, AdjO 58, AdjD 32
Results: (L) vs. Penn State, 79-76
The Week That Was: Because they weren’t playing Wisconsin, Coleman Hawkins and Matthew Mayer went a combined 0 for 7 from beyond the arc and the Illini lost their only Big Ten Tournament game to the scorching-hot Nittany Lions. As always, it’s impossible to know what to make of this team. Could they make the Sweet 16? Sure. Could they get their doors blown off in the first round and see a player enter the transfer portal at halftime? Yeah, I could see that.
The Week Upcoming: The Illini are a 9-seed and will play 8-seed Arkansas in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. If they win, defending champion Kansas awaits them. I don’t foresee a deep run by Illinois this year.
Indiana
KenPom rank: AdjEm 30, AdjO 27, AdjD 43
Results: (W) vs. Maryland, 70-60; (L) vs. Penn State, 77-73
The Week That Was: The Hoosiers picked up a nice neutral site win over the Terps (who are physically incapable of winning away from College Park) before succumbing to the PSU Buzzsaw. Really Big Brained 4-D Chess stuff from IU, denying Purdue a chance to get a win over it this season by losing in the semifinals. The Hoosiers are undefeated against the Boilermakers this year, baby!
The Week Upcoming: A 4-seed, the Hoosiers will play MAC Tournament champion Kent State in the first round. A potential Sweet 16 matchup with Houston, and former Indiana head coach Kelvin Sampson, is on the table if IU can get past the Golden Flashes and then Miami (Fla.) or Drake.
Iowa
KenPom rank: AdjEm 37, AdjO 3, AdjD 167
Results: (L) vs. Ohio State, 73-69
The Week That Was: The Hawkeyes let OSU hang around and the wildly underachieving Buckeyes kept on marching through their part of the Big Ten Tournament. Connor McCaffery played 30 minutes and scored zero points. Filip Rebraca had 20 and seven, but Iowa’s horrific defense allowed Ohio State to score 1.16 points per possession.
The Week Upcoming: Iowa didn’t NEED a win in the BTT and, as such, it’s an 8-seed that will face Auburn in its first NCAA Tournament game. The Hawkeyes are in the same little sub-region as Indiana, and if they pull off a big upset over Houston could see the Hoosiers in the Sweet 16. I, uh, wouldn’t put money on that.
Maryland
KenPom rank: AdjEm 22, AdjO 35, AdjD 33
Results: (W) vs. Minnesota, 70-54; (L) vs. Indiana, 70-60
The Week That Was: The Terps stomped a hapless Minnesota team and then lost to Indiana, a team with a pulse, to end their season at 21-12 overall. With 15:42 to go in the game against IU, the Terps were up 41-34. A mere six minutes later, Maryland found itself down 54-43 as Indiana went on a massive run to put the game out of reach.
The Week Upcoming: Maryland is an 8-seed and will play West Virginia in the first round. While this is a historic football rivalry, there isn’t much history on the hardwood. I think the Terps stink, like the rest of this conference, and will lose in the first round. If they don’t, 1-seed Alabama will be next on the schedule.
Michigan
KenPom rank: AdjEM 47, AdjO 53, AdjD 58
Results: (L) vs Rutgers 62-50
The Week That Was: Michigan played through its entire season in one game. The Wolverines looked really good at times in their loss to Rutgers, specifically the first half, and then the wheels came off so completely that even Michigan fans couldn’t help but laugh. At one point in the second half, Michigan was 1 for 17 from the floor. This was a game U-M had to have to even get in the conversation for the tournament, and the Wolverines just totally mailed it in.
Michigan fans have seemingly unified on the desire to see Jett Howard move on. His shooting talent is undeniable, but he’s such a negative in every other area of the game that it’s an unusual situation where losing a first-round NBA draft pick could be addition by subtraction.
The Week Upcoming: Michigan is a 3-seed in the NIT and will face one of the most hilariously lopsided offense/defense split teams you’ll ever see. The Toledo Rockets are an incredible No. 5 in Barttorvik’s offensive efficiency, but No. 285 in defensive efficiency. All outcomes are possible for this matchup.
Michigan State
KenPom rank: AdjEM 29, AdjO 39, AdjD 38
Results: (L) vs Ohio State 68-58
The Week That Was: Michigan State was one of the teams that got hilariously wrecked by the Buckeyes last week. The Spartans were an absolute no-show in this game, which sparked long RCMB threads wishing various maladies upon Malik Hall and his family.
This team just isn’t very good at all, and nothing about them makes any sense. They’re No. 4 nationally in three-point percentage as a team, which would mean a lot more if they weren’t No. 298 in three-point attempt rate. This is a good summation of the team. They seem unwilling to do the things they are clearly good at and instead insist on smashing their collective heads into walls. Oh, and in the past two weeks, MSU’s above-average defense has suddenly become a sieve. The vibes in East Lansing are decidedly terrible.
The Week Upcoming: MSU was awarded a 7-seed and will play 10-seed USC in Columbus. USC is a similarly unremarkable team, and it was also a one-and-done in its conference tournament. I expect an exceedingly pedestrian matchup in this one, but it’s a true coin flip. Barttorvik favors the Spartans slightly, but if I had to guess, I’d take the Trojans because I’m not sure there is a fix to the Spartans’ defensive woes at this point. If they do eke by USC, they’ll likely face Marquette in round two and get run off the floor.
Minnesota
KenPom rank: AdjEm 217, AdjO 233, AdjD 186
Results: (W) vs. Nebraska, 78-75; (L) vs. Maryland, 70-54
The Week That Was: The Gophers had a terrible season, even by their low standards, but did win two of their last four games including an opening-round BTT victory over Nebraska, effectively keeping the Huskers out of the NIT. Ta’Lon Cooper had 12 assists and Dawson Garcia had 18 points and 13 rebounds against Nebraska, but the whole team ran out of steam and got eviscerated by Maryland the next day.
The Week Upcoming: Stefan and I will have another post looking ahead to next season later this month but, rest assured, Minnesota’s roster will look totally different than it did this year. As of me writing this sentence on Monday afternoon, three Gophers have already entered the transfer portal and their top 2023 recruit asked out of his NLI and committed to Louisville.
Nebraska
KenPom rank: AdjEM 103, AdjO 144, AdjD 77
Results: (L) vs Minnesota 78-75
The Week That Was: What a massive letdown for the Huskers. They came into the postseason playing their best basketball having won six of their last eight, only to faceplant against the league’s one truly abysmal team. The Huskers had things on the line, too, as a win could have gotten them into the NIT – which would have been a major accomplishment for them. It’s a shame, honestly. They were really fun to watch in the second half of the season.
I don’t pretend to know what he will do, but I would imagine there are a number of high-major teams interested in a player like Keisei Tominaga, should he decide to transfer.
The Week Upcoming: The Huskers season is sadly over.
Northwestern
KenPom rank: AdjEM 35, AdjO 104, AdjD 14
Results: (L; OT) vs Penn State 67-65
The Week That Was: Northwestern was one-and-done in the tournament, losing a tough-fought overtime battle against eventual finalist Penn State. The Wildcats had a really rough day offensively, and that ultimately doomed them. Despite the 2-seed in the conference, this team is deeply flawed, and it’s hard to be bullish about their prospects of making any noise in the tournament.
The Week Upcoming: The Purple Cats are a 7-seed and will face 10-seed Boise State. Barttorvik gives Boise Stata a 0.5-point edge in what is a true tossup. This will come down to whether Boo Buie can successfully play hero ball and carry the Cats to a win, and I just would not bank on that. If they do manage to beat the Broncos they’d likely be rewarded with a matchup against UCLA that will not go well.
Ohio State
KenPom rank: AdjEM 52, AdjO 23, AdjD 108
Results: (W) vs Wisconsin 65-57; (W) vs Iowa 73-69; (W) vs Michigan State 68-58; (L) vs Purdue 80-66
The Week That Was: In one of the more improbable things we’ve seen all season, 13-seed Ohio State made a run to the conference tournament semi-finals. It discarded the lowly Badgers before knocking off tournament-bound Iowa and MSU in hilarious fashion. The Buckeyes eventually ran out of steam in game four, getting smoked by the Boilermakers, but we here at the Weasel still believe Chris Holtmann should be signed to a lifetime appointment for this performance.
The Week Upcoming: OSU’s gutsy run was not enough to get it an invite to the postseason. The 2022-23 campaign in Columbus is now concluded.
Penn State
KenPom rank: AdjEm 39, AdjO 17, AdjD 101
Results: (W) vs. Illinois, 79-76; (W) vs. Northwestern, 67-65 OT; (W) vs. Indiana, 77-73; (L) vs. Purdue, 67-65
The Week That Was: Holy shit, what a week for Penn State! The Nittany Lions entered the Big Ten Tournament SQUARELY on the bubble and played themselves in by winning three games in a row and giving Purdue everything they could handle in the title game.
PSU beat the Illini by three, Northwestern by two in OT and then took Indiana to task, winning by four in the semifinals. In its fourth game in four days, PSU trailed by 17 points with just over six minutes, seemingly cooked. However, no one told Penn State about that and it roared back to have a chance to win the game on its final possession. It’s unimportant what happened on that possession, and it is offensive that you’d even ask, but PSU lost by two and didn’t even have to sweat out the selection show.
The Week Upcoming: The Nittany Lions are one of the hottest teams in the nation now and, as a 10-seed, they will look to upset 7-seed Texas A&M – one of the other hottest teams in the nation – in the first round. The winner will most likely play Texas, so you’ll have to imagine the fix will be in for the Aggies and Longhorns to play, but only someone with an infant’s brain (like Matt Painter, perhaps) would fully count out this PSU team.
Purdue
KenPom rank: AdjEm 6, AdjO 7, AdjD 21
Results: (W) vs Rutgers 70-65; (W) vs Ohio State 80-66; (W) vs. Penn State 67-65
The Week That Was: Purdue won the conference tournament, playing the 9-seed, 13-seed, and 10-seed. There may not be a better encapsulation of what a dogshit conference this has been than that.
Despite not playing anyone from the top half of the conference, the Boilermakers still managed to have two close games and allowed Penn State to come back from a 17-point deficit with six minutes remaining to have an opportunity to tie or win the game at the buzzer. That final possession went terribly awry, but I’m not sure anybody in Boilerland feels great about this team going into the dance. Yes, they got a 1-seed and that’s a great accomplishment, but this feels like the 1 that everybody is going to fade first.
The Week Upcoming: 1-seed Purdue gets to play the winner of a 16-seed play-in between Farleigh Dickinson and Texas Southern. It’ll then play the winner of Memphis-FAU. Can this group make the second weekend? It’s definitely not a gimme.
Rutgers
KenPom rank: AdjEM 36, AdjO 161, AdjD 7
Results: (W) vs Michigan 62-50; (L) vs Purdue 70-65
The Week That Was: Rutgers was able to bludgeon an uninterested Michigan team in round 1, and then gave Purdue all it could handle in round 2. I am not saying it ultimately influenced the outcome, but boy the Scarlet Knights can’t be happy with the officiating down the stretch of that game. The end result, sadly, is that our beautiful Jersey Boys are the highest-ranked Barttorvik team not in the NCAA field. Fuggedaboutit.
The Week Upcoming: Rutgers garners the vaunted NIT 1-seed. They will face off against Hofstra in a game where they are favored by about seven. Go Knights.
Wisconsin
KenPom rank: AdjEm 76, AdjO 151, AdjD 27
Results: (L) vs. Ohio State, 65-57
The Week That Was: This was just a completely embarrassing and disheartening first-half performance by a desperate Badgers squad in the BTT. Needing AT LEAST one win in the conference tourney to sneak into the NCAA Tournament, Wisconsin came out against Ohio State and scored 18 points in the first half.
Because Holtmann sucks absolute shit, OSU did nothing to extend that lead and allowed a bad Wisconsin team to go on a late 19-2 run and get within five points. But, in the battle of who wanted it least, the Badgers came out on top, lost to OSU and missed out on the NCAA Tournament.
The Week Upcoming: The Badgers are hosting Bradley on Tuesday night in the first round of the NIT. I am extremely interested to see what sort of crowd Wisconsin gets for this game because there were actual, real people saying UW should decline the NIT invitation for… reasons? Anyway, this team sucks. I hope they win the NIT!