Weasel Weekly is Meet at Midfield’s weekly look at Big Ten men’s basketball presented by guest contributors Drew Hamm and Stefan Zonia.
You can find Drew on Twitter at his personal account, @drewhamm5, where he talks Philly sports, Wisconsin sports, and other nonsense. You can also subscribe to his Wisconsin basketball/football/volleyball newsletter @BadgersBallKnow where it’s all UW, all the time.
Stefan can be found on Twitter @iamstefanzonia where he discusses Michigan sports (college and pro), sports betting and entertains any and all internet absurdities.
We split up the conference in a fantasy draft format. Here’s a quick recap of who is covering who:
Stefan – Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Nebraska, Ohio State, Purdue and Rutgers
Drew – Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Minnesota, Penn State and Wisconsin
We were going to hype the first meaningless matchup between Michigan and Wisconsin in this space, but in light of the mass shooting on MSU’s campus, this all feels utterly meaningless.
Instead, we offer our love and support to East Lansing and the Spartans. Our hearts break at the unquantifiable trauma that yet another community now must shoulder. It’s beyond time that we take action to prevent this from continuing to happen. Hug your loved ones.
Illinois
KenPom rank: AdjEm 20, AdjO 49, AdjD 17
Results: (W) vs. Rutgers, 69-60
The Week That Was: It took the Illini until well into the second half before they took control of their game against Rutgers, but they eventually did, notching an important conference win at home. Matthew Mayer played poorly (because he wasn’t playing Wisconsin), but Dain Dainja had 15 points and seven boards while Coleman Hawkins had 18 points and eight boards. Nobody is catching Purdue, but the Illini can make as strong a claim to second place in the Big Ten as anyone else. Disgusting conference.
The Week Upcoming: Road trips to Penn State and Indiana await Illinois this week, which will really test this squad’s mettle. A split seems likely, but going 0-2 will send their fans into a shame spiral – so that’s what I’m cheering for.
Indiana
KenPom rank: AdjEm 19, AdjO 18, AdjD 37
Results: (W) vs. Rutgers, 66-60; (W) at Michigan, 62-61
The Week That Was: The Hoosiers tried their damndest to lose both games last week, but Trayce Jackson-Davis is simply too good for that to happen. IU’s defense put the clamps on Michigan for the final 5:12 of the game, holding it scoreless. The IU offense? Well, it went scoreless for the final three minutes of the game, but the Hoosiers still won by one point… so who cares?
The Week Upcoming: A suddenly MASSIVE road game at Northwestern highlights IU’s schedule this week, with a home tilt against Illinois looming over the weekend. There are no days off in the Big Ten, unless you’re playing Minnesota, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan, or like five other teams.
Iowa
KenPom rank: AdjEm 34, AdjO 6, AdjD 142
Results: (L) at Purdue, 87-73; (W) at Minnesota, 68-56
The Week That Was: Iowa’s defense is bad, which is why it lost to Purdue. Minnesota’s offense is bad, which is why it lost to Iowa. Sometimes, these weekly recaps are easy!
The Week Upcoming: A home game against Ohio State and a trip to Northwestern are on the docket this week for the Hawkeyes. Iowa is lurking for a top-four finish in the conference, and a sweep of the Buckeyes and Wildcats could bring it close to sealing the deal.
Maryland
KenPom rank: AdjEm 25, AdjO 42, AdjD 27
Results: (L) at Michigan State, 63-58; (W) vs. Penn State, 74-68
The Week That Was: Hakim Hart had a field day against the Nittany Lions, scoring 23 points, grabbing five boards and dishing out four assists. I’ve always kind of liked him as a player, so it’s nice to see him playing well. That’s where we are in this conference. Maryland has a competent guard, and that’s enough to earn it a place in the NCAA tournament.
The Week Upcoming: A home game against Purdue will be tough, and a road trip to Nebraska isn’t easy either (just ask Very Bad Wisconsin). The Terps will need to at least split to keep pace with the rest of the pack, sitting as one of eight teams with five or six league losses.
Michigan
KenPom rank: AdjEM 53, AdjO 46, AdjD 68
Results: (W) vs Nebraska 93-72; (L) vs Indiana 62-61
The Week That Was: Michigan began the week with one of the weirdest blowouts you’ll ever see (discussed further in the Nebraska section), and came out of the gate well against Indiana. But, as has become commonplace in the Juwan Howard era, the Wolverines were totally incapable of closing the game out.
This was not, by any means, a game that Indiana won. But, Michigan squandered repeated opportunities down the stretch and did not score in the final five minutes of the game. Worse yet, during that span, Hunter Dickinson only attempted one shot.
This was a self-inflicted loss, one that will sting as U-M badly needed it to get back into the bubble conversation. Barring an unexpected late run, this is an NIT team playing well below its talent level. Michigan is now 1-9 in games it could win or tie on the final possession under Howard, and is 0 for 12 from the field in those situations. I’m noticing a trend here.
The Week Upcoming: The Weasel Bowl Part 1 arrives with little fanfare. Both of these teams suck, and nobody besides Drew and I should watch this game. Michigan then gets MSU at home; Defeating a middling Spartan team would give fans something to feel good about, while a loss will really build the fire under Juwan’s seat.
Michigan State
KenPom rank: AdjEM 30, AdjO 76, AdjD 16
Results: (W) vs Maryland 63-58; (W) @ Ohio State 62-41
The Week That Was: Sparty had a strong week, and has been playing consistently excellent defense. In this iteration of the Big Ten, that’s more than enough to finish in the top half of the table. They got out to a blazing 15-0 start against the Terps, but Maryland was able to claw back and even take a brief lead before turtling down the stretch.
The Ohio State game offers us little in the way of information about Michigan State – though it was surprising to see Ohio State spend all 40 minutes doing teambuilding exercises rather than attempting to play basketball. It’ll click any day now, boys.
The Week Upcoming: MSU has canceled its game with Minnesota in wake of Monday evening’s tragedy. It’s unclear if the Spartans will make their trip to Ann Arbor this weekend, and they deserve all the grace and understanding for whatever they eventually decide.
Minnesota
KenPom rank: AdjEm 224, AdjO 299, AdjD 137
Results: (L) vs. Iowa, 68-56
The Week That Was: The Gophers may have been cured of COVID, but is the jab causing them to miss free throws at a historic rate? Subscribe to Patrick’s secret YouTube channel to find out!
The Week Upcoming: Minnesota plays PSU on Saturday, and then heads to Illinois on Monday for a rescheduled game. The Golden Gophers have lost eight in a row, and I wouldn’t expect them to win either of those games. As always, we continue to pray for Ohio State to remain Minnesota’s only conference win this year. Inshallah.
Nebraska
KenPom rank: AdjEM 102, AdjO 179, AdjD 59
Results: (L) @ Michigan 93-72; (W; OT) vs Wisconsin 73-63
The Week That Was: The Huskers had a bizarre game against Michigan, which saw them pick up runs of 17-3, 15-5 and 9-0, lose by 54 points in all other moments, and suffer a 21-point defeat. Remarkable stuff.
Nebraska may be terrible, but if you aren’t watching Keisei Tominaga grill opposing defenses, you are absolutely missing out. After dropping 30 points on Penn State, he went for 24 against Michigan and then 22 against Wisconsin. He’s been lethal from deep, going 14-29 in those three performances, but what’s been most impressive is his crafty finishes at the rim. He’s small and not an elite athlete, but he consistently gets defenders off balance, and he’s done the unthinkable in making Nebraska basketball fun to watch. Well, relatively fun.
The Week Upcoming: Tominaga is going to get a stiff test at Rutgers, before his Cornhuskers return home to face the Terps. Let Keisei cook.
Northwestern
KenPom rank: AdjEM 47, AdjO 98, AdjD 25
Results: (W) @ Ohio State 69-63; (W) vs Purdue 64-58
The Week That Was: Well holy shit, Northwestern. After a ho-hum win against lifeless Ohio State, the Cats shocked Purdue in Evanston. Chase Audige was his typical inefficient self on offense, but he played a hell of a game defensively as his Wildcats won despite shooting 4-22 from three.
That’s one of the most astonishing results of the season. Northwestern successfully limited everyone but Zach Edey, and made it a fight every step of the way for Purdue, forcing 16 turnovers in a low-possession game.
The Week Upcoming: The Wildcats continue their home stand, welcoming Iowa and Indiana to Evanston. The game with the Hoosiers could determine who finishes second in the conference. If you told me that at the beginning of the year, I’d have thought you were having a stroke.
Ohio State
KenPom rank: AdjEM 51, AdjO 27, AdjD 94
Results: (L) vs Northwestern 69-63; (L) vs Michigan State 62-41
The Week That Was: My god, this team is just horrible. A week ago, they had a “circle the wagons” moment and re-voted on their team captains. The team responded with a sloppy loss against Northwestern, and then got defenestrated against MSU. They showed zero fight in the game against the Spartans and seem to have fully quit on a disastrous season in Columbus.
I know Chris Holtmann was signed to a sizeable extension last offseason, but I really don’t know how he survives this. Ohio State is 1-11 in its last 12 games and now trails No. 12 Nebraska by two games in the conference standings. It’s inexcusable with the talent on that roster.
The Week Upcoming: OSU is headed first to Iowa and then to Purdue. It would be a miracle if the Buckeyes come within 20 points of either opponent.
Penn State
KenPom rank: AdjEm 55, AdjO 21, AdjD 115
Results: (L) vs. Wisconsin, 79-74 OT; (L) at Maryland, 74-68
The Week That Was: Yikes. Things are NOT looking good for the Nittany Lions right now. They have lost four in a row, with two of those losses coming to Nebraska and Wisconsin, and are very much on the outside looking in for the NCAA Tournament. They still have a chance to right the ship because of immense and undeserved Big Ten privilege, but they probably have to win five of their last six regular season games to have any kind of chance.
The Week Upcoming: A home game against Illinois is a rough way to start a stretch of must-win games, but at least a trip to Minnesota this weekend will be easy.
Purdue
KenPom rank: AdjEM 5, AdjO 7, AdjD 23
Results: (W) vs Iowa 87-73; (L) @ Northwestern 64-58
The Week That Was: Purdue is still going to win the regular season title, but I do have significant questions about if it can do anything in the tournament. Edey is unstoppable, but his supporting case just isn’t that good. When you consider the amount of attention he draws and the spacing he creates, the output of the rest of the team is extremely unimpressive.
That came home to roost against Northwestern, and it was the same story the week before against IU. Purdue has the most dominant player in the country, and that seems to be just about all it has.
The Week Upcoming: Purdue travels to Maryland and then hosts Ohio State. If the Boilermakers drop the game to Maryland, the conference race may start to get a little tight – but that seems unlikely.
Rutgers
KenPom rank: AdjEM 16, AdjO 132, AdjD 2
Results: (L) @ Indiana 66-60; (L) @ Illinois 69-60
The Week That Was: Rutgers was unable to pull out a win at either stop of its road trip. This is certainly a good team, but the offense just struggles so consistently that it’s hard to see it making any real noise in the postseason (Big Ten tournament or NCAA). The shooting remains mostly poor, and if the Scarlet Knights aren’t creating a big shot differential by forcing turnovers or snaring offensive rebounds, they just don’t have the firepower to stay with any of the above-average teams in this conference.
The Week Upcoming: Rutgers regroups with a home game against Nebraska and a game at Wisconsin. Those ought to pad out the win column a little bit.
Wisconsin
KenPom rank: AdjEm 71, AdjO 146, AdjD 29
Results: (W) at Penn State, 79-74 OT; (L) at Nebraska, 73-63 OT
The Week That Was: I don’t say this lightly, because I hate this team. Wisconsin looked really good against Penn State. It reeled me back in, and had me running calculations on various bubble scenarios and shit.
Then…then the Badgers blew a 17-point lead against Nebraska and let Tominaga dance on their grave. Good. I’m glad.
The Week Upcoming: A Valentine’s game against Michigan with both teams desperately needing a win? In Howard’s first trip back to the Kohl Center since The Incident? I’m sure this will be a totally normal game. As will Saturday’s home game against New Wisconsin, Rutgers.