Weasel Weekly is Meet at Midfield’s weekly look at Big Ten men’s basketball presented by guest contributors Drew Hamm and Stefan Zonia.
You can find Drew on Twitter at his personal account, @drewhamm5, where he talks Philly sports, Wisconsin sports, and other nonsense. You can also subscribe to his Wisconsin basketball/football/volleyball newsletter @BadgersBallKnow where it’s all UW, all the time.
Stefan can be found on Twitter @iamstefanzonia where he discusses Michigan sports (college and pro), sports betting and entertains any and all internet absurdities.
We split up the conference in a fantasy draft format. Here’s a quick recap of who is covering who:
Stefan – Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Nebraska, Ohio State, Purdue and Rutgers
Drew – Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Minnesota, Penn State and Wisconsin
Weasel War 2, Midwestern Boogaloo went to the Wolverines thanks to Drew’s favorite player, Hunter Dickinson, hitting a buzzer-beating three-pointer that will definitely get looped ad nauseum every time these two teams play for the next five-plus years. At long last, justice for the Ben Brust shot has finally been served.
The conference’s front-runner is collapsing, as is the team that was alone in second. Ohio State won a game. Nebraska is the hottest team in the conference. There is just one game separating second place and eighth place in the standings. The final week of the regular season is here. Let’s get nuts.
Illinois
KenPom rank: AdjEm 35, AdjO 68, AdjD 25
Results: (W) vs. Northwestern, 66-62; (L) at Ohio State, 72-60
The Week That Was: The Illini aren’t in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament or anything, but I do NOT trust this team a tiny bit. They only scored 19 points in the first half against Northwestern, a game they went on to win despite being down 18 at halftime, and then went and actually lost to Ohio State, ending the Buckeyes’ nine-game losing streak. This team stinks (except for Terrence Shannon) and will lose during the first weekend of the tournament.
The Week Upcoming: The Illini welcome Michigan to Champaign on Thursday and then play at Purdue. The Boilermakers might not have anything to play for in that game outside of seeding improvement, so maybe Illinois gets a resume-boosting win?
Indiana
KenPom rank: AdjEm 21, AdjO 21, AdjD 40
Results: (L) at Michigan State, 80-65; (W) at Purdue, 79-71
The Week That Was: The Hoosiers didn’t really play poorly against MSU, Sparty just played better and methodically beat IU by 15.
But… their game at Purdue was excellent. Awesome environment, amazing performances from both teams and two squads that legitimately cared about the outcome. Jalen Hood-Schifino may have secured himself a lottery slot with his 35-point outburst, putting the team on his back and carrying them to a rivalry sweep of the Big Ten champs on an off night from Trayce Jackson-Davis.
The Week Upcoming: After playing four of their last five on the road, the Hoosiers return home for their final two games of the regular season. Iowa and Michigan will both pose a challenge, but IU should be able to sweep them.
Iowa
KenPom rank: AdjEm 44, AdjO 5, AdjD 170
Results: (L) at Wisconsin, 64-52; (W) vs. Michigan State, 112-106, OT
The Week That Was: Iowa fans were Big Mad after the Badgers beat them in Iowa City earlier this year and kept hollering “just wait until the rematch!” through tears, and then they went and got stomped out by one of the worst Badgers teams in years.
Iowa’s other game last week was genuinely excellent. The Hawkeyes completed one of the most outrageous comebacks I’ve ever seen to force OT and then went on to win, knocking off MSU. With 1:34 left in regulation, MSU was up 91-78 and had a 99.8 percent win probability.
Then, Iowa made a million three-pointers and forced OT, where it dominated the demoralized Spartans. MSU scored 34 points in the last 10 minutes of regulation and lost! College basketball really does rule sometimes.
The Week Upcoming: At Indiana and home against Nebraska is probably a split week for the Hawkeyes, but don’t ask me which game will be a win and which will be a loss.
Maryland
KenPom rank: AdjEm 17, AdjO 26, AdjD 30
Results: (W) vs. Minnesota, 88-70; (W) vs. Northwestern, 75-59
The Week That Was: The Terps quietly have 20 wins this season. They pummeled Minnesota and Northwestern to end NU’s bid to win the Big Ten last week and will now be playing to try and improve their NCAA Tournament seeding. Jahmir Young continues to whip ass.
The Week Upcoming: A two-game road trip to play Ohio State and Penn State would be a lot more daunting on the gridiron, as the Terps should be able to win both of these games and set themselves up nicely for a run in March.
Michigan
KenPom rank: AdjEM 41, AdjO 41, AdjD 59
Results: (W) @ Wisconsin 58-45; (W; OT) vs Wisconsin 87-79
The Week That Was: Michigan came up with two huge wins this week that have given their once faint tournament hopes real life, and won both games without the services of Jett Howard – who suffered an ankle injury at the end of the MSU game the week before.
Michigan came out flat against Rutgers, falling behind 13-3 in the early going, but the Wolverines buckled down and played their best defensive game of the season. They erased the Knights’ offense while getting a balanced attack of their own. The Tarris Reed/Hunter Dickinson two-big lineup was unsolvable for Rutgers, and in the final 10 minutes of the game (which Reed played most of) the Knights only were able to score seven total points.
The rematch of the Weasel Bowl was intense from start to finish, and we’ll start at the end (of regulation), where Hunter Dickinson drained a buzzer-beater that won’t be forgotten in Ann Arbor any time soon to force overtime in a game that looked all but sealed for the Badgers. Michigan was able to take control in the overtime and wound up winning fairly comfortably.
Kobe Bufkin was sensational, dropping 28 points while the other member of the backcourt, Dug McDaniel, dropped 20. It is starting to look like this may be the last we see of Bufkin in college – as has been thoroughly covered in this space, his star has been rapidly ascending for two months now. His talent is undeniable and he’s getting first-round draft chatter. I’m going to enjoy him for as long as Michigan has him.
The Week Upcoming: Michigan has a tough close to its schedule, traveling to Illinois and then to Indiana. A win in either game seems likely to put Michigan to the right side of the bubble, a sweep would lock them in and two losses probably gives U-M work to do in the conference tournament.
Michigan State
KenPom rank: AdjEM 28, AdjO 52, AdjD 33
Results: (W) vs Indiana 80-65; (L; OT) @ Iowa 112-106
The Week That Was: I am going to do the responsible thing and talk about the game with IU first. MSU welcomed IU to Breslin, and frankly, kicked the Hoosiers’ ass. Okay, onto the important stuff.
MSU’s second game of the week was, with all sincerity, the most batshit thing I’ve ever seen on a basketball court. MSU could not miss for the entirety of regulation, making 11 of 14 (78%!!!) threes, the highest percentage of made threes by any Big Ten team with 10-plus attempts. Ever. To boot, MSU went 28 of 32 from the free throw line. If you just told me those two stats alone and asked me what I expected the score to be, I’d have guessed MSU won by 50.
HOWEVER, after the now-famous Fran Staredown facing a 13-point deficit with 90 seconds to play, Iowa WENT ON A 23-10 RUN. It scored 23 points in 90 seconds. It went 5 of 5 from three in the final 39 seconds. MSU continued to sag off of shooters, and everyone on Iowa looked like they were trying to throw the ball into the ocean.
In overtime, Iowa continued the onslaught and went on to win the game by six. I don’t know how MSU bounces back from this loss. It had the Hawkeyes dead to rights, made almost all of your free throws down the stretch and just had to avoid turning the ball over while maybe fouling up three. Instead, MSU missed a layup, turned the ball over and did not foul up three. Whoops!
The Week Upcoming: MSU now travels to Lincoln to face a suddenly surging Nebraska team and all-conference wizard Keisei Tominaga. It wraps the season up with the lifeless Buckeyes.
Minnesota
KenPom rank: AdjEm 222, AdjO 271, AdjD 165
Results: (L) at Maryland, 88-70; (L) at Nebraska, 78-67
The Week That Was: Two more games, two more losses. The Gophers have now lost 12 games in a row and sit at 1-16 in the Big Ten. And, as always, that one win WAS! AGAINST! OHIO! STATE!
The Week Upcoming: Two games at The Barn to end the regular season against Rutgers and Wisconsin. Both of those teams will be fighting for March-related reasons (RU for better seeding, UW for making the tourney at all) and should beat Minnesota handily, but it would be hilarious if the Gophers ended Wisconsin’s season with their second B1G win of the year.
Nebraska
KenPom rank: AdjEM 93, AdjO 170, AdjD 57
Results: (W) vs Minnesota 78-67
The Week That Was: The Huskers are the hottest team in the Big Ten, having won four straight. They now have as many conference wins this season (eight) as Fred Hoiberg had in his previous three seasons combined. The remarkable thing about the win over Minnesota was how unremarkable it was. Nebraska was the better team from start to finish and just continued leaning on the Gophers until breaking them. This is what good teams do to overmatched opponents, and I dare say the Huskers are starting to approximate a good team.
The Week Upcoming: Nebraska hosts Michigan State and then travels to Iowa. For the love of God, just let Tominaga cook.
Northwestern
KenPom rank: AdjEM 47, AdjO 93, AdjD 24
Results: (L) @ Illinois 66-62; (L) @ Maryland 75-59
The Week That Was: The loss to Illinois is going to haunt the Wildcats for years to come (longer, if they finish just a game back of Purdue when it’s all said and done). Northwestern blitzed the Illini out of the gate, building an 18-point first-half lead. In fact, at the break, Boo Buie had outscored the Illini on his own, 22-19!
Buie was sensational in this game (35 points), but as is often the case, his surrounding cast did nothing. The other four Northwestern starters were a combined 5-of-26 shooting. The Illini chipped away at the lead throughout the second half and NW appeared to be totally out of steam. They had no answer for Shannon, and the end result was an agonizing loss.
Northwestern compounded its troubles by getting flattened by the Terps in College Park. The first half was competitive, but the Wildcats were no-shows in the second half. Buie had apparently used all his ammo on Illinois as he went 1 of 9 from the floor in this one and finished with just four points. Rough week for the Purple.
The Week Upcoming: Life doesn’t get any easier, as Northwestern has to face two teams fighting for their tournament lives. It hosts Penn State, which is scrapping to try and get into the dance, and then closes the season out at Rutgers, which is now desperately clinging to a spot in the field. Both ought to be highly motivated and tough outs.
Ohio State
KenPom rank: AdjEM 65, AdjO 28, AdjD 118
Results: (L) vs Penn State 75-71; (W) vs Illinois 72-60
The Week That Was: Ohio State was surprisingly game against a desperate Penn State team. It had seemed to be totally checked out in its past several games, so the effort level really stood out, though it was ultimately a fruitless endeavor for the Buckeyes.
That effort carried over to their home game with Illinois. The Buckeyes jumped out a 15-point first-half lead and spent the entire second half trying to avoid coughing it up. Illinois managed to get the lead down to one point, but it never managed to push ahead.
OSU did a great job in limiting Shannon, who had been red hot coming into the game. He went just 3 of 12 for a very inefficient 10 points, and Illinois didn’t seem to have many ideas down the stretch. The end result was the first win for OSU since Jan. 21, breaking an eight-game losing streak that somehow felt twice as long as it was.
The Week Upcoming: OSU hosts Maryland and then closes the season at Breslin.
Penn State
KenPom rank: AdjEm 49, AdjO 14, AdjD 137
Results: (W) at Ohio State, 75-71; (L) vs. Rutgers, 59-56
The Week That Was: PSU handled business against the Buckeyes, which featured an impressive final OSU possession where it missed five three-pointers but got five offensive rebounds. The Nits then entered a must-win game against Rutgers in State College.
Early in the second half, the Nittany Lions went up 19 on Rutgers and cruised to an easy wi- hold on, I’m being told that the Scarlet Knights outscored PSU 18-5 over the final 10 minutes of the game to win by three? That can’t be.
The Week Upcoming: PSU is at Northwestern and home against Maryland. It needs to win both, and while I hope it does, I just don’t see it happening. Major bummer.
Purdue
KenPom rank: AdjEM 6, AdjO 10, AdjD 19
Results: (L) vs Indiana, 79-71
The Week That Was: Purdue is fortunate the season is winding to a close after this week. If it were one or two weeks longer, I’m not sure if it could hold the rest of the conference off, as it has been pretty bad lately.
This week, the Boilermakers played once, and the result was IU completing the season sweep of its in-state rivals.
This game very much followed the same formula as the first matchup: Zach Edey dominated, but nobody else on the team provided meaningful support. Edey went for 26 points and 16 boards, but the Purdue guards and wings shot extremely poorly. Almost every Purdue player besides Edey looks to have hit the wall at this point.
Purdue has now lost four of its last six, and it’s hard not to be bearish on their post-season prospects, despite the regular season conference title.
The Week Upcoming: Purdue travels to Wisconsin and then hosts Illinois. It needs just a split to lock up the regular season title, and neither of these opponents is playing well, though Purdue isn’t either, so who knows?
Rutgers
KenPom rank: AdjEM 31, AdjO 171, AdjD 3
Results: (L) vs Michigan 58-45; (W) @ Penn State 59-56
The Week That Was: Early in the week, it was looking like Rutgers would be without McConnell against Michigan. So when he was able to suit up and help Rutgers get out to a quick double-digit lead, it felt like Rutgers had possibly regained its mojo. Unfortunately for them, a very familiar storyline surfaced: The Knights struggled to score.
They don’t have a real offensive identity or one sure thing they can lean on when other things aren’t working. To their credit, their defense is often so stifling that they figure out ways to win anyways, but they were so offensively inept against Michigan that it felt like the Wolverines’ 10-point lead with five minutes to go may as well have been 40 points.
Rutgers, through sheer force of will, was able to turn its luck around in the game with Penn State. After coming out completely flat and trailing by as many as 19 points to the Nittany Lions, the Knights scraped and clawed their way back into the game. They limited PSU to just three points over the final nine minutes of the game, and that was just enough for them to get over the hump offensively.
The Week Upcoming: Rutgers travels to the league’s whipping boy, Minnesota, before closing the season out at home against Northwestern. Incredibly, seeds of doubt around Rutgers’ tournament credibility have crept in. I still think it is fairly safe, but after a 2-4 stretch, it really isn’t scaring anyone right now.
Wisconsin
KenPom rank: AdjEm 68, AdjO 152, AdjD 21
Results: (W) vs. Iowa, 64-52; (L) at Michigan, 87-79, OT
The Week That Was: Beating Iowa again this year was great. Iowa sucks and should never be happy. Losing to Michigan, in overtime, after Hunter Dickinson – of all fucking people – made a miracle three-pointer? Well, that made me question ever watching sports again. I’ve managed to smooth out most of my rough edges when it comes to being a sports fan, but there are some moments that return me to a feral state of rage and Sunday afternoon’s Badgers game was one of them. I hate this team so much.
The Week Upcoming: Since a Jan. 28 loss to Illinois, the Badgers have alternated wins and losses, which means they’ll beat Purdue at home on Thursday and then lose at Minnesota to end the season. There, now they don’t even have to play the stupid games and I don’t have to watch them. Everybody wins!