Weasel Weekly is Meet at Midfield’s weekly look at Big Ten men’s basketball presented by guest contributors Drew Hamm and Stefan Zonia.
You can find Drew on Twitter at his personal account, @drewhamm5, where he talks Philly sports, Wisconsin sports, and other nonsense. You can also subscribe to his Wisconsin basketball/football/volleyball newsletter @BadgersBallKnow where it’s all UW, all the time.
Stefan can be found on Twitter @iamstefanzonia where he discusses Michigan sports (college and pro), sports betting and entertains any and all internet absurdities.
We split up the conference in a fantasy draft format. Here’s a quick recap of who is covering who:
Stefan – Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Nebraska, Ohio State, Purdue and Rutgers
Drew – Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Minnesota, Penn State and Wisconsin
Are you a fan of a Midwestern school recently ousted from the college football playoff? Well boy do we have some hot garbage for you! Enjoy a rundown of the happenings of your dumb teams, plus the other pillars of mediocrity the B1G has to offer!
Illinois
KenPom rank: AdjEM 28, AdjO 48, AdjD 28
Results: (W) vs. Bethune Cookman, 85-52
The Week That Was: The Fighting Illini picked up an easy win (minimum win probability: 99.1 percent, tied 0-0, 17:59 left in first half) against Bethune-Cookman, but that didn’t really solve any of their actual problems. Freshman PG Skyy Clark missed the game with a shoulder injury and Matthew Mayer shot 2 of 9 from the field and only scored seven points.
Surely the even-keeled Brad Underwood will be able to navigate these choppy waters safely and get the Illini right for the remainder of Big Ten play.
The Week Upcoming: Illinois has a trip to “Chicago” to play the surprisingly scrappy Northwestern Wildcats and then a weekend home date with the surprisingly good Wisconsin Badgers. If I HAD to pick, I’d say that Illinois wins both… but I’m certainly not expecting it.
Indiana
KenPom rank: AdjEM 19, AdjO 30, AdjD 23
Results: N/A
The Week That Was: The Hoosiers haven’t played a game since Christmas Eve Eve so let’s talk about how awesome those two CFP semifinal games were! As a neutral fan who hated all four teams for different reasons (Michigan/OSU because duh; TCU because they beat Wisconsin at the Rose Bowl I went to; Georgia because they’re too good and it isn’t fair!), there was basically no outcome that wouldn’t have been hilarious to me. Getting two games that absolutely whipped ass from start to finish with exciting plays and impressive performances littered throughout was just gravy. Great football! Go Horned Frogs!
The Week Upcoming: IU has a tricky road trip to face a reeling Iowa team that desperately needs a win and then a home matchup with Northwestern on the docket. Will the time off for the Hoosiers be beneficial, or will they be rusty? Don’t ask me that. I don’t know.
Iowa
KenPom rank: AdjEM 50, AdjO 15, AdjD 109
Results: (L) at Nebraska, 66-50; (L) at Penn State, 83-79
The Week That Was: A smart and handsome blogger said this in his critically acclaimed weekly Big Ten basketball post on a college football website last week: “This team fucking stinks and it won’t matter when Murray and McCaffery come back because this program runs on Loser DNA and always will. The Hawkeyes have road games against Nebraska and Penn State this week and if they split those games it should be considered a massive success.”
Wow, that was really prescient! This team DOES fucking stink!!
Kris Murray and Connor McCaffery were back for both games and Murray led the team in scoring in each matchup while they got their doors blown off by Nebraska (!!!) and were down 18 at halftime to PSU before mounting a second-half comeback that, predictably, fell short.
Stick a fork in this team. The vibes are terrible. The coach is terrible. Murray is logging empty stats on a losing team. He is Men’s Basketball Caitlin Clark. Iowa is the national hub for this kind of player.
The Week Upcoming: A home game against a well-rested Indiana is a chance for Iowa (0-3 in the league) to get back on track, but I wouldn’t bet on it. The Hawkeyes also have a road trip to the RAC, which is a scheduled loss for just about every team in the conference.
Maryland
KenPom rank: AdjEM 37, AdjO 55, AdjD 36
Results: (W) vs. UMBC, 80-64; (L) at Michigan, 81-46
The Week That Was: The Terps thrashed in-state UMBC and then went on the road with a chance to put a stumbling Michigan fully in the dirt and got absolutely fucking destroyed. What the hell was that? The Wolverines were up 21-4 after 10 minutes and 44-13 at halftime! At one point in the second half, Michigan was winning by 38 points!
Nobody for the Terps scored in double figures, Donald Carey went 0 for 8 from three, the team had 0.61 points per possession and they had no answer for Hunter Dickinson, who scored 32 points and pulled down 12 boards. Really gross performance for Maryland.
The Week Upcoming: Things don’t get any easier this week as the Terps travel to Rutgers and then host Ohio State on Sunday. KenPom projects them to lose four of their next five games – the only projected win is against the Michigan team that just beat them by one million points.
Michigan
KenPom rank: AdjEM 47, AdjO 33, AdjD 72
Results: (L) vs. Central Michigan 63-61; (W) vs. Maryland 81-46
The Week That Was: Going into this week, 1-1 seemed like a distinct possibility. Michigan had a game against a fringe-300 MAC team followed by a team solidly in the 20s on KenPom. And they did go 1-1. However,
Hunter Dickinson had the absolute worst game of his Michigan career against CMU. He went just 3 for 9 from the floor despite playing 32 minutes and not recording a single foul. Michigan, in general, could not generate a clean look to save its life. The Wolverines had multiple scoring droughts and eventually, CMU was able to put them away. It’s a stunningly bad loss in a season that had only seen the Wolverines lose to tourney teams.
They, of course, turned around and beat the ever-loving shit out of Maryland. The Terps were hardly off the bus when Michigan put them in a 16-point hole. It wasn’t until the back end of the second half that Maryland finally managed to outscore Dickinson. Prior to this game, Barttorvik had Michigan projected at 6-14 in the conference. After this game, they jumped to 10-10. It was such a massive ass-kicking that it turned the models inside out.
The Week Upcoming: Michigan faces Penn State at home. The prospect of trying to defend Pickett with a freshman PG sounds like certain death. Next up is a game at Breslin over the weekend. Michigan better hope Dickinson from the Maryland game shows up.
Michigan State
KenPom rank: AdjEM 46, AdjO 45, AdjD 52
Results: (W) vs. Buffalo 89-68
The Week That Was: Malik Hall returned to action after a long period away and looked great with 11 points in 12 minutes. MSU got very balanced scoring off the bench with four different players getting at least seven points – and that’s when this Spartan team is at its best. They don’t have any players to consistently carry the scoring load (except maybe a fully weaponized Hall), but if they can go nine-deep with quality play, they’ll be a pain in the ass to play. It’s a good thing Tom Izzo absolutely refused to add any depth to his roster.
The Week Upcoming: MSU has a pair of home games with Nebraska and Michigan this week – two teams capable of looking absolutely abject or clowning you in your own building. Flip a coin!
Minnesota
KenPom rank: AdjEM 199, AdjO 233, AdjD 157
Results: N/A
The Week That Was: In a true Christmas Miracle, the Golden Gophers haven’t participated in a college basketball game since Dec. 22. In fact, my Christmas wish was to never have to read/see/hear about another Minnesota basketball game for as long as I live.
What’s that?
Ah. Well, it would appear that my residence in Minnesota may throw a wrench in my dreams. But, I won’t forget these two glorious weeks.
The Week Upcoming: To compound matters, the Gophers play Wisconsin this week and I will be watching every minute. On Saturday, Minnesota plays Nebraska at home. They have a 34 percent chance to win – their highest remaining winning percentage for the season – according to KenPom. Good.
Nebraska
KenPom rank: AdjEM 82, AdjO 155, AdjD 39
Results: (W) vs Iowa 66-50
The Week That Was: Nebraska absolutely obliterated Iowa, holding it to just 50 points despite Murray’s return. The Huskers are playing an ugly style of basketball, but have taken the Northwestern path of becoming sort of a knock-off Rutgers. Their defense is pretty good. They really labor to score but have been able to Wile E. Coyote their way to several wins. Conference foes cannot sleep on this team without risking an anvil-related incident.
The Week Upcoming: Nebraska is catching MSU a few days before it faces Michigan, also known as a perfect spot to catch the Spartans looking ahead. Get your anvils ready. Up next is a road game against a Minnesota team that… well, you know their deal.
Northwestern
KenPom rank: AdjEM 63, AdjO 197, AdjD 8
Results: (W) vs. Brown 63-58; (L) vs. Ohio State 73-57
The Week That Was: Northwestern snuck by Brown, which is generally not a thing you want to hear. But, a five-game winning streak is a five-game winning streak. The good times came to an end with a mailed-in first half against OSU.
It wasn’t even clear what they were TRYING to do on offense. The disparity between their AdjO (197) and AdjD (8) is the largest in the country. This is a legitimately good defensive team that’s just totally hapless on offense.
The Week Upcoming: Northwestern hosts Illinois before traveling to Bloomington. It’s hard to see it winning either, but maybe the Cats can catch one of them in a brick-laying competition.
Ohio State
KenPom rank: AdjEM 12, AdjO 2, AdjD 67
Results: (W) vs. Alabama A&M 90-59; (W) @ Northwestern 73-57
The Week That Was: The advanced stats believe in the Buckeyes, certainly much more than the pollsters do. OSU has a number of outstanding offensive players and has attained a level of offensive balance that generally marks very good teams.
The Bucks are second in AdjO for a reason. Brice Sensabaugh is looking like a one-and-done player, and having him as a go-to weapon complemented by Zed Key, Sean McNeil and Justice Sueing gives them a ton of flexibility offensively. It brings me no pleasure in telling you that Chris Holtmann is doing a good job this year.
The Week Upcoming: The fireworks will be flying this week as Ohio State hosts the top team in the country. Not that I need to tell you, but this matchup with Purdue is a must-watch game. I have serious doubts that Key will be able to hold up against Edey because no one has this year, but we’ll see. The Bucks follow that up with a trip to College Park to face a reeling Terrapin team.
Penn State
KenPom rank: AdjEM 44, AdjO 32, AdjD 65
Results: (W) vs. Delaware State, 60-46; (W) vs. Iowa, 83-79
The Week That Was: These boys are making me so proud. Last week the Nittany Lions easily dispatched lowly Delaware State and then on Sunday, the first day of 2023, they beat Iowa and sent the Hawkeyes further into the depths of hell.
Pickett continued his incredible season with 26 points against Iowa (and seven rebounds, plus six assists) to keep the Nittany Lions offense humming right along. Andrew Funk made five three-pointers, Myles Dread was super efficient off the bench, and someone named Evan Mahaffey had a lot of “twos” (made two-pointers, made free throws/attempts, defensive rebounds, assists, turnovers, blocks, and fouls) in his stat line, which I found visually pleasing. We’re hearing numerous reports that Mahaffey dropped a big two on Fran McCaffery.
The Week Upcoming: Micah Shrewsberry’s lads have a tough upcoming schedule with a trip to Ann Arbor, where you never know which Michigan team you’ll get, and then a game in Philly against No. 1, and undefeated, Purdue. If they beat the Boilermakers you will not be able to tell me anything ever again!
Purdue
KenPom rank: AdjEM 7, AdjO 5, AdjD 26
Results: (W) vs. FAMU 82-49
The Week That Was: Edey returned to the lineup but was only called on to play 22 minutes against an overmatched opponent. There isn’t a lot to learn here. Purdue is really damn good and FAMU is FAMU.
The Week Upcoming: Purdue faces a tricky two-step when they face the third-ranked KenPom defense (Rutgers) followed by the second-ranked offense (Ohio State). My guess, based on watching it quite a bit this year, is that Rutgers will be the tougher test despite being the home game in the pair. Purdue is going to beat just about anybody in a free-flowing game, but if you can grind it into a slog, you have a puncher’s chance. Am I picking Rutgers to give Purdue their first loss? I…guess I am?
Rutgers
KenPom rank: AdjEM 18, AdjO 126, AdjD 3
Results: (W) vs. Coppin State 90-57
The Week That Was: The Knights shoved another bad team into a locker. Clifford Omoruyi dominated at both ends. Cam Spencer continues to alternate good games with bad. He was good in this one, playing a nice second fiddle to Cliff. The sledding gets much tougher now, and this defense will be tested heavily in short order.
The Week Upcoming: Rutgers travels to Purdue for a pretty significant game. I highlighted earlier that this is the type of game that could give the Boilers trouble, and I’m formally calling for the Knights to pull off the upset. It’s their only opponent this week.
Wisconsin
KenPom rank: AdjEM 42, AdjO 77, AdjD 25
Results: (W) vs. Western Michigan, 76-66
The Week That Was: The Badgers, as they often do, played one of the worst first halves of basketball I’d seen this season against Western Michigan. They turned it on in the second half thanks to Steve Crowl’s 25 points and beat the Broncos by 10. I’d be more disappointed, but I saw what Directional Michigan schools are capable of against Big Ten teams this year. This was a good win for Wisconsin!
The Week Upcoming: UW has a home game against Minnesota, who we’ve already established is dogshit, and then a trip to Champaign to play the enigmatic Illini. The Badgers almost never win at Illinois, regardless of how good the Illini are, and I doubt that changes this year.