Penn State is looking to avoid back-to-back losses to conference opponents, but Minnesota’s Michigan-lite gameplan could prove a complication. Ohio State has the opportunity to face the best defense it will play in the regular season and test its offensive improvements. Indiana and Rutgers both desperately want to avoid the “worst team in the division” allegations. Purdue has seemingly emerged as a contender in the B1G West, but needs to overcome a road test in Madison to fulfill that promise.
The picture in the Big Ten seems to clarify more each week, but is hardly a finished product or all-but-over like the ACC. Let’s take a look at the schedule around the conference in week eight:
Northwestern at Maryland (-13.5), 3:30pm, BTN
Just one of the most remarkably uninteresting games of the season. Watch if you want to see what Maryland will look like if it (maybe? likely?) doesn’t play without Taulia Tagovailoa. Wish I had more info than that, but the injury reporting in college football is a travesty and noticeably worse than usual this season. Maryland is gonna win, Northwestern is gonna lose 11 straight games to end the season. None of my business.
Indiana at Rutgers (-3), 12pm, BTN
Either one of these teams can save themselves from the “Worst team in the conference” allegations by simply winning this game. The bottom three have each already secured one Power Five victory – Indiana over Illinois, Rutgers over Boston College, and Northwestern over Nebraska . Nebraska freed themselves from these charges by beating both Indiana and Rutgers over the last two weeks. Northwestern appears to be on track to lose 11 consecutive games, but the losers of this Indiana-Rutgers game are probably losing out the rest of the season. I have very little read on this game, but the vibes around both teams are really poor right now. I think Indiana is the better team and they have been more competitive against better opponents than Rutgers, but going on the road is challenging, even if the environment is as non-impactful as Piscataway.
Purdue at Wisconsin (-2.5), 3:30pm, ESPN
Wisconsin wants to run the football, Purdue loves to stop it. The Boilermakers are tied for 18th in rushing yards per carry allowed and Wisconsin ranks 12th in the Power Five in rushing attempts on the season. Purdue wants to throw the football (4th nationally in passing attempts), Wisconsin hasn’t shown much of a track record of being able to stop it, ranking 48th in the Power Five in yards allowed per attempt.
I think that’s the ball game. Purdue will find a way to make this close because all they do is play one-score football games this season, but I think the Boilermakers can get what they want on offense much easier than Wisconsin can.
Minnesota at Penn State (-4), 7:30pm, ABC
I’ve often wondered if betting markets assign a different value to a home crowd factor – or if anyone has done a study to find out – when we’re talking about a Penn State whiteout. Typically, home field advantage is worth between two and three points on a line, but the raucous environment of a Nittany Lions home game with the reputation of being the loudest environment in college football is often much more feared than that. I’m fascinated to see what Minnesota can do underneath the lights in Happy Valley.
Penn State’s rushing defense was much-celebrated in advance of the dismantling they took at the hands of Michigan, but the shine has obviously come off of that reputation. While Minnesota is not of the same quality of the Wolverines, the Gophers aren’t terribly far behind. Minnesota averages 5.3 yards per carry (compared to Michigan’s 5.8), but that number jumps to 5.7 in games where star back Mo Ibrahim is playing, which he will be on Saturday as well. If PJ Fleck’s group takes the tact of simply copying the Michigan gameplan and daring Penn State to stop them, it’s hard to blame them. Minnesota has a statistically better defense than Michigan per SP+ and one nearly as good per FEI; its rushing defense is nearly as good; why not try to do exactly what Michigan did until Penn State proves it can stop it?
It feels at times like Penn State is building its teams to beat Ohio State’s passing offense while forgetting that the other dozen teams in the conference play a much different style of football that often leaves them vulnerable. Penn State has now surrendered an appalling 350-plus rushing yards in three of its last 13 games. It feels like they are vulnerable to doing so again on Saturday night. Maybe this is an overreaction and Michigan’s offense simply is that soul-crushing, but I think this may be about Penn State as much as it is the Wolverines.
Iowa at Ohio State (-29), 12pm, FOX
There is little doubt about the outcome of this game — there is no scenario where Iowa can score enough points to keep up with Ohio State — but it will be useful in testing a few theories about Ohio State, at least. It seems that the Buckeyes have corrected many of the concerns about this team from last season, primarily the overall defensive performance, the red zone offense, and the efficiency of the rushing offense. While the Iowa offense is too poor (98th in SP+, 100th in FEI, last nationally in EPA/play) to test the Ohio State defense, it will be a useful exercise in evaluating some of the changes to the Buckeye offense.
Ryan Day’s red zone woes seem to be a thing of the past. No one in the country has been better inside the 20 than the Buckeyes, who rank T-1st in red zone scoring percentage and 1st in red zone touchdown percentage. The Buckeyes are simply finishing drives at an elite level in general, with more than two thirds (68.5%) of all offensive drives ending in a touchdown, per Football Outsiders; no one else in the country has reached even 51% yet this season. Iowa, as you may expect, is great at preventing exactly this. The Hawkeyes rank 3rd nationally in defensive touchdown rate allowed and 3rd in the Power Five (only Georgia and Illinois are better) in red zone touchdown rate allowed. Showing the ability to finish drives against even a defense as elite as this Iowa group would be an encouraging sign for a Buckeye offense with no other substantial tests prior to the Michigan game.
It is also fair to expect that Ohio State should be able run the damn ball against this team. With Miyan Williams emerging as a star and Trey Henderson continuing to do his thing, the Buckeyes have ranked 5th in yards per carry nationally. The Iowa defense is incredible overall (1st in SP+, 3rd in FEI, 3rd in scoring defense), but it can be had a little bit in the rushing attack. Illinois and Michigan’s running backs averaged 162 yards per game at 4.8 yards per carry. Seeing the Buckeyes backfield approach or surpass those numbers would be an encouraging sign for a unit with high expectations, especially given that the Ohio State offensive line ranks 1st in line yards per carry nationally this season.
The game state should play in the Buckeyes’ favor here. Limit Iowa offensively, control the ball all day, run the ball, score in the red zone, and cover the spread. For a team without many challenges on the schedule, this is an opportunity to silence questions on an at least one side of the ball as to whether the improvement is real or illusionary.