Keeping it short and simple. It’s two hours before puck drop.
I realized, in the eleventh hour, that the core rivalry of our website meets rinkside in the Big Ten Hockey Tournament playoffs. In theory, I know things about hockey. Let’s take a bird’s eye view of this installment of The (good old hockey) Game.
At-A-Glance
No. 3 Ohio State at No. 2 Michigan
Yost Ice Arena // 6:30 p.m. // Big Ten Network
Ohio State leads the series, with two regulation wins and a shootout win (that’s technically a tie).
Ohio State
20-14-3 // No. 9 nationally // No. 3 in Big Ten
Quick Stuff:
- Goaltender Jakub Dobes is stout, with a 0.920 save percentage and a 2.25 GAA (goals against average). I won’t get into a whole thing about how these stats aren’t a full measure of goaltender success, but he could very easily “goalie” Michigan — aka have a standout performance amid the offensive pressure the Wolverines offer.
- While most contests between the two teams have been within the normal realms of hockey wins and losses, the Buckeyes have generally given Michigan the business this season. Notably, they beat the Wolverines 7-2 at Yost. If you’ve ever wanted to see a dead body, it would be Michigan in the second period of this game.
- Ohio State’s offense is pretty evenly spread — there’s not one guy, but rather several who make contributions. They’re running back the same lines that they used at the Faceoff on the Lake, and their top-six forwards (Gildon-Wise-Thiesing and Singleton-Halliday-Burnside) are balanced and effective.
Michigan
22-11-3 // No. 4 nationally // No. 2 in Big Ten
Quick Stuff:
- Adam Fantilli is a freak, averaging 1.81 points per game, which leads the nation by a decent margin.
- Luke Hughes, the No. 4 overall pick in the NHL draft last year, is confirmed to be leaving for the New Jersey Devils at the conclusion of this season. Until then, though, the defenseman helps generate scoring chances and goals – he has 31 assists (and nine goals of his own).
- In addition to losing key offensive and defensive production to the NHL at the conclusion of last year’s season, the team adjusted to the, um, abrupt coaching transition to interim head coach Brandon Naurato. They also dealt with illness and injury throughout the season, but are at their healthiest at a critical juncture in their season.
- Where Ohio State is more of a balanced hockey team, Michigan is all offense, all the time.
How did they get to the semifinals?
The Big Ten Hockey Tournament’s first round is a best of three, and every round thereafter is single elimination. In the quarterfinals, Michigan defeated Wisconsin in two games – though game two got to be a bit of a scare – and effectively also sent Wisconsin coach Tony Granato packing. Ohio State won their first game against Penn State handily and lost in overtime in game two, before winning Game Three 3-1.
Keys to Winning
Ohio State: Maintain Special Teams Pressure
Ohio State’s 89.3% penalty kill percentage leads the NCAA, as do their ten short-handed goals on the season. Michigan is second in the Big Ten on the power play, but will inevitably have difficulty with Ohio State’s penalty kill.
On the other side of special teams play, Michigan leads the NCAA in penalty minutes. Whether or not all 646 of those minutes are deserved is a story for NCAA officials, but Michigan has found itself undisciplined in key moments. Ohio State’s power play is third in the Big Ten, but has skidded, scoring only two power play goals on their last 13.
As Sam Stockton noted after the Faceoff on the Lake:
When looking for a differentiating factor in the back-and-forth, often muddled affair, the obvious answer was special teams. Michigan’s power play never converted in seven tries, while conceding the shorthanded tally to [Tyler] Duke; Ohio State scored twice on six power play chances.
If Ohio State can get out of their power play funk and capitalize on a highly penalized, young Michigan team that’s prone to losing focus, that gives them a solid advantage. They’ve already got the upper hand on the penalty kill, so maintaining dominance in all facets of special teams play should spell trouble for Michigan.
Michigan: Get The Defense Right
As I alluded to, Wisconsin made their second game against Michigan in the quarterfinals difficult, attempting and almost completing a comeback. When it comes to Michigan’s lackluster defense down the stretch, Alex Drain of Mgoblog puts it best (bold is my emphasis):
Michigan allowed nine goals across the two [quarterfinal] games [against Wisconsin] and I’m not sure any of them were really on Erik Portillo. Maybe one? This column has been hard on Portillo this season, and justifiably so, but against Wisconsin Michigan was exceptionally poor in their own end. The first two goals allowed on Friday were a bit flukey, garbage goals off pinball scrums and through traffic, but the other three were all calamities. Twice this weekend the Wolverines saw a lone Badger win a puck battle behind Portillo against two Michigan players, leading to pass into a high-danger area for a tap-in.
Erik Portillo has not been the revelation he’s needed to be this season, but he’s certainly not getting help. Combine imminent penalties with shaky defense, and you’ve got a shit stew to hand a goalie. Michigan will need to improve on the backcheck and limit how much they leave their goalie out to dry.
What Happens Next?
The winner of this game will face the winner of No. 5 Michigan State at No. 1 Minnesota. Minnesota, the No. 1 team in the nation as well as the Big Ten, has a 3-1 season record against Ohio State and a 3-0-1 record against Michigan. Michigan State split its four games with Ohio State, 2-2, but only bested Michigan once (1-2-1 on the season).
Minnesota feels like a lock for the tournament final, but single-elimination hockey is a crapshoot. One thing to know about hockey, for the uninitiated, is that it’s a weird fucking game and anything can happen.
Regardless of outcome today, neither team’s season is over; Michigan and Ohio State should both make the NCAA tournament. If neither team receives the automatic bid as a tournament winner, they should receive at-large bids.
Taylor’s Very Correct Prediction Please Do Not @ Me Or Find Me Later
Michigan will squeak this one out, say like… 4-3. Maybe in overtime. Assume that Michigan will have blown a lead. They already do a nice job of sticking to their game offensively, and will just need a strong defensive mentality to match so the game doesn’t get away from them.
Also, my personal over/under on the announcers mentioning that Tyler and Dylan Duke are brothers and play for rival teams is six. They’ll show the Duke family’s “house divided” Michigan/OSU combo jerseys so much, everyone subscribed to this website will cringe in sheer horror.