This week’s Hangover is free to give prospective members a chance to check out what we do at Meet at Midfield. We strongly encourage you to sign up using the link below and using the code NOV25 for 50% off of an annual or semiannual membership or code THEGAME to try for your first month for just $5. Meet at Midfield produces several premium articles and podcasts weekly and is home to the best message board in college football and we’d love for you to join our rapidly growing community.
For just the third time in the last 40 years, we will enter week 13 of the college football season with five undefeated teams from power conferences. Despite scares for undefeated Washington and Michigan and close games for 1-loss Texas and Louisville, the chalk results continue at unprecedented levels. We are on track for a reckoning over the final two weeks of the season.
As always, we’ll check in on the top 25, discuss top playoff contenders and relevant conference title races, review the Group of Five’s New Year Six bid, and go through any other relevant or interesting games from the week.
Ryan’s Top 25
- Georgia
- Washington
- Ohio State
- Michigan
- Florida State
- Texas
- Alabama
- Louisville
- Oregon
- Liberty
- Oklahoma
- Ole Miss
- Penn State
- Missouri
- James Madison
- Iowa
- LSU
- Tulane
- Notre Dame
- Arizona
- Toledo
- Oregon State
- Oklahoma State
- Kansas State
- Troy
Also under consideration: NC State, North Carolina, Miami (OH), UNLV, SMU
Playoff talk
Georgia has now won six consecutive games by multiple scores (part of a 28-game win streak overall), with four of those games coming against opponents currently over .500. The Dawgs have one of the best passing attacks in America and deserve the benefit of the doubt on everything else until proven otherwise in their third year of dominance. Georgia Tech won’t be much competition for the Dawgs, so all eyes turn to the SEC title game in Atlanta against a resurgent Bama.
Washington may not have the dominance week-to-week of some of their competition, but the Huskies’ ability to beat quality teams week after week in different game states is wildly impressive. The 22-20 road win in Corvallis was Washington’s third ranked win of the season, this one in an ugly, cold rain where they had to grind it out against an offense that was content to hold the ball all day. Week 13 should be a simple win over a lackluster Wazzu team and only a rematch with Oregon awaits beyond that.
You can pick nits between Ohio State and Michigan’s résumés if you’d like, but they’re going to settle it on the field on Saturday. I think Michigan has played its worst football of the season over the past three weeks and Ohio State seems to be rounding into form. We’ll have plenty of time to discuss this one throughout the week. For ranking purposes, the extra ranked win over Notre Dame for Ohio State gives them the edge over Michigan.
Florida State remains undefeated, but major questions about the Seminoles will emerge with the devastating broken leg suffered by star quarterback Jordan Travis in the first half of Saturday’s game against North Alabama. The Noles still have a clear path to the playoff: beat Florida and Louisville and you’re in the dance no matter what. Without that, a berth feels unlikely. I’m gutted for Travis, but backup Tate Rodemaker looked capable against Louisville last season and you have to hope he can land the plane or push for a Cardale Jones redux.
Texas is the team best-poised to take advantage of any chaos in the top five, at least for my money. A 12-1 Longhorns squad with six quality wins and at least three ranked wins, including a two-score road win over fellow contender Alabama is hard to deny. If you assume that the Michigan vs Ohio State winner stays undefeated against Iowa, then I think that Texas needs to be rooting for either a loss from Florida State or for Alabama to win out. The committee seems to value (overvalue, in my opinion) Oregon’s performance to date, so I doubt the Longhorns want to get into a head-to-head comparison with the Ducks fresh off of a conference title win over Washington, avenging its only loss in the process.
Oregon is tough for me to process. I think the consistent ranking in the 6-seed by the committee is ridiculous given their résumé. The Ducks have just three quality wins, none of them ranked opponents on my list. They looked dominant against Utah, but didn’t do anything mindblowing against USC, Wazzu, Texas Tech, or Washington. I truly don’t understand the committee’s obsession here. If they win out against Oregon State and Washington, they could very well have a chance, but I’d have them behind the B1G and SEC champions, an undefeated Florida State, and very likely 12-1 Texas too. I don’t think the committee shares that view today, but we’ll see.
Alabama has clearly improved throughout the course of the season, racking up five quality wins (and two ranked victories over Ole Miss and LSU) since being worked at home by Texas. However, you can’t just ignore the game that was played in Tuscaloosa, as a majority of their fans are wont to do. Even if Alabama wins out and beats Georgia to win the SEC, it should not be put in the playoff ahead of an undefeated Washington, Florida State, or B1G champ or a 12-1 Big 12 champion Texas. The Tide need help and do not control their own destiny today.
Louisville is technically still alive and the path may be opening up for the Cardinals, but it’s nearly impossible to imagine them sticking the landing and getting the help they need. If Jeff Brohm and his boys manage to beat Kentucky and Florida State without Travis, they would still need a fair bit of help. Alabama would need to be eliminated, either by Auburn or Georgia; same for Oregon by Oregon State or Washington. You would also need Texas to drop one of its final two contests. Even after that, you’d have to hope and pray that the committee chooses you over the loser of the Ohio State at Michigan game, which is far from a given. It would take a miracle, but maybe the Cards pull it off? It’s been a hell of a debut season for Brohm regardless.
Conference championships check-in
Things are fully settled in the ACC (Florida State vs Louisville), Big Ten (winner of Michigan vs Ohio State faces Iowa in Indianapolis), the CUSA (Liberty and New Mexico State rematch), the MAC (Miami and Toledo are set for a rematch as well), and the SEC (Georgia and Alabama will face off in Atlanta, as is tradition at this point). Elsewhere in the country, there’s far less certainty.
Four teams remain alive in the Big 12:
- Texas and Oklahoma State both control their own destiny. If either wins their final game (vs Texas Tech for the Longhorns and vs BYU for the Pokes), they are in the title game.
- If Texas wins and Oklahoma State loses, the result for the second seed will be determined by Oklahoma vs TCU and Kansas State vs Iowa State. If one loses and the other wins, the winner is in the title game. If both win, Oklahoma would go to the title game based on the fifth point of the Big 12 tiebreaker rules, which is overall wins in a season. If both lose, Oklahoma State keeps the bid and plays Texas.
- If Texas loses and Oklahoma State wins, the result would again be determined by Oklahoma vs TCU and Kansas State vs Iowa State. If Oklahoma wins, it would be in over Texas in any resulting tiebreaker, joining the Pokes for a Bedlam rematch. If the Sooners lose, Texas would be in to play Oklahoma State.
- If Oklahoma State and Oklahoma both lose and Kansas State wins, the Wildcats are in and would play Texas, regardless of the Longhorns’ results.
The PAC-12 race is down to three teams: Washington, Oregon, and Arizona. The Huskies have already clinched one bid, but the second remains up for grabs. The remainder is simple:
- If Oregon wins or Arizona loses to the Sun Devils, the Ducks are in for the second spot and a chance to rematch Washington.
- If Oregon loses to Oregon State and Arizona beats Arizona State, the Wildcats will be in, as the tiebreaker would move towards winning percentage against the common opponents highest in the conference standings, which would only be Oregon State. Oregon would have lost to the Beavers and Arizona has already beaten them.
The American’s race should be fairly straightforward. If SMU wins its season finale, it will face off against the winner of Tulane/UTSA. All three teams are undefeated in conference play at this point in the season. If the Mustangs fail to win vs Navy, the tiebreaker goes to a composite of four BCS-era computer rankings. If Tulane is the loser of that game, it would almost certainly be a Tulane/UTSA rematch. If UTSA loses, we are almost certainly looking at Tulane/SMU. If we get some kind of truly wild result – a 50-point loss or something of that nature – that could be enough to shift the computers, but the odds are very small.
Four teams remain alive in the Mountain West. UNLV currently sits in first place at 6-1 in the conference with one game to go. The Rebels host a surging San Jose State, which has won five straight games by multiple scores, for the season finale.
- If UNLV wins the game, the Rebels are in and the winner of Boise State vs Air Force is too.
- If UNLV loses the game, there will be a three way tie between the Rebels, San Jose State, and the winner of Boise State vs Air Force at the top of the league.
- If that winner is Air Force, the Falcons would be 1-1 against the group, as would both San Jose State and UNLV. In this scenario, it is unlikely that the College Football Playoff rankings criteria in point 2 of the MWC multi-team tiebreakers would be used. Even if it were the “composite average of selected computer rankings” is opaque and we don’t know who would advance or which rankings are used. If it moves to point 3, overall winning percentage, then the choices would be Air Force and UNLV.
- If that winner is Boise State, then Boise State and San Jose State would advance. The former would have a 1-0 record in the three-way tie and the latter would be 1-1.
In the Sun Belt, Troy has sewn up the West, but the East remains more complicated. Three teams – James Madison, Coastal Carolina, and App State – are still alive for the division crown, if the Sun Belt chooses to permit James Madison to play despite not currently having bowl eligibility.
- If James Madison is eligible, the Dukes are in with a win at Coastal Carolina.
- If Coastal Carolina wins, the Chanticleers would be in regardless of James Madison’s eligibility or any other result.
- Coastal Carolina would also be in if it loses, James Madison remains ineligible, and App State loses to Georgia Southern.
- If James Madison defeats Coastal Carolina and is ineligible for the game, App State would be in with a win vs Georgia Southern.
Who’s taking the Group of Five’s NY6 bowl bid?
Depending on how generously you want to look at some of these teams, there’s somewhere between five and eight programs still alive for the New Years Six bid from the G5 ranks this year.
Tulane sits atop the committee’s rankings (of G5 teams, that is) currently and has a chance to finish 12-1 with two more quality wins – UTSA and SMU – and its only loss coming to a top 12-ish Ole Miss. The Green Wave’s path is quite clear: win out and you’ll almost certainly claim the NY6 bid for the second time in as many years. I don’t know if I agree with the committee’s decision here, as Willie Fritz’s squad only has two quality wins and has played in far too many dicey games down the stretch. Nonetheless, they continue to lazily favor the American’s best teams for this as a default.
If Tulane stumbles, the likeliest benefactor is Liberty. The Flames remain undefeated and currently have four quality wins, twice as many as Tulane. That includes a New Mexico State team that went into Jordan-Hare and absolutely whooped Auburn. They will rematch the Aggies in the CUSA title game. Even if Tulane wins out, a 13-0 Liberty with five quality wins is hard to ignore and should cause a serious debate.
In a world where both Tulane and Liberty stumble, the teams poised to possibly take advantage are 1-loss James Madison (if ruled eligible) and Toledo or 2-loss SMU, Miami (OH), UNLV, and Troy. James Madison and Troy would play each other for the Sun Belt title if the Dukes beat the Chanticleers and the Sun Belt chooses to allow JMU to be eligible for the title game. Likewise, Toledo and Miami (OH) will rematch in the MAC title game; the RedHawks’ only other loss and Toledo’s only loss both came in week one, against Miami (Fla.) and Illinois, respectively. SMU has the potential to knockoff Tulane in the AAC title game if it takes care of business in its final week. UNLV has a chance to finish 11-2 and beat Air Force twice, but would have one of the weakest list of scalps of the group.
My personal order of likelihood, as it stands today, would be Liberty, Tulane, Toledo, SMU, Troy, James Madison, UNLV, and Miami (OH).
Quick Hitters
- Northwestern is now bowl-eligible after a 23-15 win over Purdue in the Ryan Field sendoff. David Braun had the interim coach tag removed during the week and he more than deserved it. He has worked magic this season and also proved exactly how futile and uninspired the final years of the Pat Fitzgerald era (7-29 in the final three non-COVID years) were.
- Arizona has put together one of the best seasons in college football. The Wildcats are now 8-3 with great wins over Oregon State, UCLA, and Utah and close losses to Mississippi State, Washington, and USC. Jedd Fisch has put this program in a tremendous position and Noah Fifita is a revelation. Huge credit where it is due to a coach I spent a lot of time making fun of.
- I don’t think Florida will fire Billy Napier after just two years, but he is going to lose five straight (and it easily could have been six were it not for a last-minute comeback against South Carolina) to close the season and is 3-5 in the conference for the second year in a row. At minimum, he needs to fire hapless defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong.
- That Kansas State-Kansas game was magic and what college football is all about. I hope that Klieman and Leipold are in those jobs for many years to come and aren’t lured away by programs in bigger leagues or more talent-rich recruiting areas, these two are great.
- Chip Kelly may have saved his job by putting USC and Caleb Williams in the dirt on Saturday. If the Bruins beat Cal at home on Saturday or notch a bowl game victory, it will be just the third time since the start of the Vietnam War in 1955 that UCLA put together a streak of three consecutive 8-win (or better) seasons. Kelly has clear faults, including his total disinterest in recruiting, but they could do a lot worse.
- To save the best for last: I love Jerry Kill and what he has done for this New Mexico State program. Absolutely beating the shit out of Auburn in Jordan-Hare was the accomplishment of a lifetime for many Aggies fans and cemented what is the best season the program has had since the 1960 undefeated campaign. Jacksonville State and Liberty remain on the schedule and they’re no cupcakes, but if the Aggies win out, they will finish the year with 12 (12!!!!!!!!!!!) wins. They’re going bowling back-to-back years. This is unimaginable. Kill has won everywhere he’s gone and I’m so happy for him and his guys.