Like I’ve most of you, I’ve spent most of my brainpower this week trying to sort through the pending Ohio State-Oregon matchup and put my thoughts down in black and white. It’s a process I frequently go through before a big game; I feel like trying to “solve” a game before it’s played is an anxiety coping mechanism to keep from the sense of impending doom I get before any matchup worth a damn.
I’m going to get my treatise on the “big game” question and other non-tape/numbers shit out of the way now for both Ryan Day and Dan Lanning, because you’ve all heard it from me before. Then, after that, we’re going to talk about what to expect when Oregon has the football and when Ohio State has the football and I’ll finish with my score prediction.
Going by year-end AP polls, Ryan Day is 1-6 against the top five and 5-7 against the top ten. When he’s in true road games, he’s 0-2 against the top five and 1-2 against the top ten. In the last three seasons, those numbers are 0-4 against the top five and 1-5 against the top ten.
Dan Lanning, who took over at Oregon at the start of the 2022 season, is 0-3 against the top five and 1-4 against the top ten in an admittedly smaller sample size.
All this is to say, the Big Ten is not sending their big game best when it comes to these two head coaches. Day’s track record is more concerning than Lanning’s to me because of scale and because of the talent that Day has on his roster relative to the rest of the country. This is also the first big game Day will have coached without being the playcaller as Chip Kelly takes over those duties. We’ll certainly have to see if that has an impact on his otherwise horrendous game prep and management.
I think I’m willing to call it a wash on the cowardice/shit-down-your-leg factor I would otherwise normally consider with both of them, but both certainly have the chance to prove me wrong by saying the lights are too bright. Ryan Day’s right tackle already did.
You’ve also likely heard the travel stats: Big Ten teams are 1-8 straight up this season when traveling two-plus time zones for conference games and 1-10 vs all opponents.
Of those ten losses, five teams were a functional pick ‘em (less than a two-point spread) or a favorite. In the last eight Big Ten conference games with two-plus time zones of travel, the visiting team is underperforming the spread by an average of 3.9 points per game. Ohio State is a 3.5 point favorite at most books. It is a legitimate concern to watch out for.
WHEN OREGON HAS THE FOOTBALL
Other than a helplessly overmatched Akron team that Ohio State saw in the season opener, Oregon throws the football more by far than any other opponent they’ve played to date, or will play the rest of the regular season. The Ducks are hardly an air raid team – it’s a 58-to-42 pass-to-run split per Sports Info Solutions – but the offense runs through Dillon Gabriel.
Gabriel is largely excellent at attacking the middle of the field. He is 62-of-79 (78.5%) for 761 yards (9.6 YPA), 8 TDs, and a pick when throwing between the numbers this season. 54-percent of his targets are thrown to either slot receivers or tight ends and those 79 throws between the numbers account for more than two-thirds of his throws past the line of scrimmage this year. His ability to quickly read and react when throwing at the heart of a defense is by far his biggest strength.
There are things that Gabriel doesn’t do well at all – he has not been a good play action passer (bizarre), he doesn’t throw to the right (just 11 of 117 passes beyond the line of scrimmage have gone outside of the right hash) and more importantly, he visibly struggles to push the football down the field. He is a small quarterback and just does not have the velocity to hit on the big-time throws or the tight windows further downfield. Gabriel has attempted just 43 of his 167 pass attempts (25.7-percent) more than ten air yards downfield, fewer than he’s thrown behind the line of scrimmage.
All of this is to say that I don’t expect Oregon to try to push the ball downfield in the passing attack at all. The Ducks will be perfectly happy to do what they’ve done all season, which is using motion to create favorable matchups in the middle of the field where star receiver Tez Johnson or tight end Terrance Ferguson, both Sunday players, can run after the catch. They try to create their explosives with YAC on coverage mismatches.
If PFF’s numbers are to be believed, an astounding 50-percent (on the nose) of Oregon’s targets have gone after either box safeties (safeties whose ADOT was within two yards of the line of scrimmage) or linebackers. They are attacking teams’ weakest coverage players time and time again.
I do think it’s possible that Oregon can have success moving the chains attacking Ohio State that way. Sonny Styles, Cody Simon, and Arvell Reese have all been vulnerable in coverage this year and I don’t know how much I trust any of them in space against superior athletes at the moment. Ohio State has also spent the last two weeks taking star slot cornerback Jordan Hancock off of the field to run a true 4-3. Styles responded by having his best game of his Buckeye career, but I feel strongly that it’s unlikely to be the right move against Oregon.
If I were the Ducks’ offensive coordinator Will Stein, I would be significantly ramping up the usage of 12 personnel – with Kenyon Sadiq as the second tight end after Ferguson, not the ancient Patrick Herbert – to try to manipulate Ohio State into its heavier packages. Oregon has used two tight end sets on 24-percent of snaps this year, right around the national average, but I think Stein can win the chess match against Knowles if he can get the Buckeyes’ DC to put three linebackers on the field.
Even if he doesn’t, I do feel that Oregon can move the ball against Ohio State. They have some opportunities for mismatches to be exploited – guards Marcus Harper and Nishad Strother are dog ass – but I do think they can move the football with some consistency.
What I don’t think Oregon can do is hit explosives against Ohio State. The Buckeyes have allowed an absurdly low 3.1-percent explosive rate on the season and are simply the best in the country at keeping the ball in front of them. Of course it helps when you have freak Caleb Downs and veteran Lathan Ransom patrolling in the defensive secondary, but the whole Buckeyes team has been lights out at snuffing out would-be chunk plays with excellent tackling in space.
I don’t have a ton of thoughts on Oregon’s run game. It’s fine. Every time they run between the tackles, it’s a win for Ohio State. Every time they let Noah Whittington touch the football instead of Jordan James, it’s a win. James himself is a solid back and I don’t want to dismiss him – he is physical, he forces through contact, and he is capable of making a man miss in space. I do think that Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson is a better back in the big picture, but James plays in a more dangerous scheme and offense by far and will be less one-dimensional. He is a dangerous weapon and shouldn’t be taken lightly.
This is kind of a “no shit” answer, but I think success for Oregon comes to how it performs in the red zone. The Ducks will not, in my opinion, be able to generate explosives against the Buckeyes and they need to be ultra-efficient on high leverage downs. Gabriel had a couple high-profile red zone interceptions lately, which is where most of this comes from, but they also rank T-92nd in the country in red zone scoring rate. They simply must be better. Oregon cannot simultaneously fail to generate explosives and suffer from inefficiency in the red zone, or else they’re going to get boatraced.
Likewise, Ohio State cannot sit in a 4-3 all night or allow Oregon to pick on Styles and Simon time and again. They’ve largely been comfortable sitting back and allowing teams to make mistakes or betting that their defensive line will get home. I think they’ll largely do the same again this week as long as the game script stays in their favor. More aggression may be needed if they fall down 7 or 10 early. I wouldn’t shy away from daring Gabriel to beat you deep or make him prove that he can throw to the right side of the field.
Oh, also, if CJ Hicks or Lorenzo Styles see the field, someone should be fired. They will be thrown at every time they touch the field.
WHEN OHIO STATE HAS THE FOOTBALL
Much as the Oregon offense runs through Dillon Gabriel and his ability to play point guard, the Ohio State offense runs through Chip Kelly’s ability to be an absolute motherfucker and put defensive coordinators in the Walls of Jericho with his run scheme.
Kelly has the benefit of having two of the five or ten best running backs in America in his backfield in Trey Henderson and Quinshon Judkins, but his playcalls have been simply perfect and balanced to the point of not revealing a tell. Depending whether you ask SIS or PFF, the outside run/between the tackles split for Ohio State is either 54/46 or 52/48. They average 7.1 and 6.9 yards per carry, respectively, so they’re not hurting for success with either. More than 21-percent (!!!) of Ohio State’s non-quarterback carries have gone for 10-plus yards.
All that is to say, they are fucking killing people on the ground and they can do it whether it’s in zone or gap, inside or outside, and with any of their top three running backs. GameOnPaper has the Buckeyes ranking in the 85th percentile nationally in line yards per carry as well, meaning they are moving people off of the ball in a way they haven’t in five-ish years. They also almost never get stuffed or hit for negative yardage. Ohio State has avoided a negative play on 40 consecutive designed runs and only three of those 40 went for no gain. They are in the 92nd percentile nationally in stuff rate avoided.
I know I’m throwing a lot of numbers at you, but I’m trying to illustrate how dominant the Ohio State rushing attack has been. It’s efficient in short yardage, it wins at the line of scrimmage, it gets yards in the second level, it generates explosives, and it does all of this from anywhere in the formation. It is perhaps the most dangerous rushing attack in the country.
Oregon, pertinently, is simply not good at defending the run. The Ducks rank T-46th nationally in raw yards per carry allowed, 70th in rushing success rate allowed, and 96th in EPA/rush allowed. They’re in the 4th percentile of line yards allowed per rush, the 27th percentile of rushing explosiveness allowed, and the 28th percentile of stuff rate.
Backers of the Ducks have been quick to point to the fact that those numbers are skewed by playing against the demonic Ashton Jeanty and that they’ve done much better against him than any other opponent he’s played this season. That’s true and it’s fair!
We should also not forget to mention that the other three FBS opponents that Oregon has played averaged 4.6 non-sack rushing yards per carry against the Ducks, despite UCLA and Michigan State being two of the worst rushing teams in the country. UCLA ranks 132nd in rushing yards per game and 130th in yards per carry, while Sparty is 108th in rushing yards per game and 95th in yards per carry.
I think it’s also fair to mention that Ohio State’s rushing attack, while not the same as Boise State and Jeanty, is a lot closer to him than anyone else in the country might be. Jeanty has posted an obscene 1031 rushing yards on 95 carries, good for 10.9 yards per carry.
Ohio State’s top two backs have combined for 805 rushing yards on 102 carries, or 7.9 yards per attempt. Only three running backs in America, including Jeanty himself, have equaled or exceeded that average on 50-plus carries.
I am fully convinced that Ohio State will be able to win convincingly in the rushing game against Oregon. I think that star defensive tackle Derrick Harmon can likely create some disruption, especially if he’s lined up over top of Ohio State’s right guard, but the Oregon defensive line outside of him is a little bit light in the ass and star end Jordan Burch may have been banged up in practice.
It feels to me intuitively like the concern for Ohio State is when it has to put the ball in Will Howard’s hands. I don’t think the numbers actually quite back up this feeling. I charted Howard’s dropbacks on passing downs – defined by CFBData as 2nd downs with 10-plus to go or 3rd or 4th downs with 5-plus to go – and was very pleasantly surprised by the results.
On 38 dropbacks on passing downs, Howard has completed 67.6-percent of his passes for 408 yards (over 11 yards per attempt), five touchdowns, and one interception, and has taken one sack. He’s been excellent in those situations, which really does not line up with what I’ve seen with my own two eyes on the field. In the last two games against Iowa and Michigan State, those numbers have jumped to a 75-percent completion rate for 11.7 YPA.
It’s also good news for Howard that he doesn’t have to be in those situations often: Ohio State is in the 96th percentile in average distance-to-go on third down and the 97th in early downs success rate.
The sense that I had is that Howard has been horribly slow and out of rhythm on his deep balls and that he was putting the ball in harm’s way too often. I do still think that’s true – he’s averaging a 3.6-percent interception rate and a 7.1-percent turnover worthy play rate against P4 competition – but he’s been at his best when he has to be. Maybe that’s corny or unscientific, but that’s what’s been borne out so far.
I do think Howard has been horrendous under pressure, which is something else to note. He’s only pressured on just north of 15-percent of his dropbacks, but on those 21 reps, he’s completed 5-of-16 (31.3-percent) for 34 yards (2.1 YPA) with an interception, two sacks, and two scrambles, per PFF.
Maybe I’m vomiting a few too many numbers here, but the point I’m trying to get across is that Howard has been very effective on passing down situations, but that’s largely because the offensive line has kept him clean during those moments. When pressure is getting in his face, Howard responds notably poorly even for a college quarterback. Oregon will have, by far, the best pass rush the Buckeyes have faced to date with the combination of the aforementioned Harmon and Burch, Matayo Uiagalelei, Jamaree Caldwell, and Teitum Tuioti.
The best thing the Buckeyes have done for Howard is protecting him by largely asking him to throw out of RPO and play actions. If they can continue to do that and allow him to make quick rhythm throws while leaning on the run game, he’s going to be fine. If Howard is asked to drop back in true pass sets and hope that Josh Fryar and company can hold up against Oregon’s pass rush and that Howard’s brain won’t shut down, I’d start to get very nervous. The Ducks have an athletic, talented, and experienced secondary and I think Brandon Johnson and Kobe Savage in particular have been excellent.
Then again, if I were to be an optimist, I would say that Ohio State’s “worst case scenario” still sees it throwing the football to Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka, two of the five best wide receivers in all of college football.
Oregon’s defense is to be respected and feared as a talented, veteran group that can make plays. I don’t think it matches up well against the Buckeyes though. The MINT front is comfortable allowing teams to run efficiently because of a confidence factor that it can create negative plays and put them behind schedule. I don’t feel confident that Oregon can do that to Ohio State.
FINAL THOUGHTS AND PREDICTION
God help me for trusting a Ryan Day football team in a big spot, but that’s what you have to do when it plays a Dan Lanning team in a big spot.
Everything I see on tape and in the numbers is screaming at me to pick Ohio State. The Buckeyes have the favorable matchups by and large, they have the more veteran team, they’ve been better in the trenches, and they have more pathways to winning this game than the Ducks do.
I do believe that it’s a close enough matchup that a bad turnover or two by either quarterback – like some of Howard’s absolute ducks to the right sideline or Gabriel’s red zone pick six from a couple weeks ago – are enough to swing this matchup, but neither team feels more turnover prone and that’s a difficult thing to predict. I’d expect about 2.5 turnovers in this game and which way it swings could be enough to decide this.
Knowing that it’s not reasonable or smart to try to predict turnover margins, I’m rolling with Ohio State. I think the Buckeyes can control this game on the ground and move the football much more consistently – and have a much higher capacity to create explosives when they’re not. Give me the Buckeyes 34-24 in a banger in Autzen.