Weasel Weekly is Meet at Midfield’s weekly look at Big Ten men’s basketball presented by guest contributors Drew Hamm and Stefan Zonia.
You can find Drew on Twitter at his personal account, @drewhamm5, where he talks Philly sports, Wisconsin sports, and other nonsense. You can also subscribe to his Wisconsin basketball/football/volleyball newsletter @BadgersBallKnow where it’s all UW, all the time.
Stefan can be found on Twitter @iamstefanzonia where he discusses Michigan sports (college and pro), sports betting and entertains any and all internet absurdities.
We split up the conference in a fantasy draft format. Here’s a quick recap of who is covering who:
Stefan – Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Nebraska, Ohio State, Purdue and Rutgers
Drew – Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Minnesota, Penn State and Wisconsin
This just in, the B1G is…good? They scored a resounding victory over the cowardly Big East 6-2 in the Gavitt Tipoff games. A number of teams scored marquee wins, Many are calling for the Federal Government to come in a break up the powerhouse that is the Northwestern Wildcats. Let’s take a tour of the NBA Central Big Ten following week 2:
Illinois
KenPom rank: AdjEm 24, AdjO 34, AdjD 16
Results: (W) vs. Monmouth, 103-65; (W) vs. UCLA, 79-70; (L) vs. Virginia, 70-61
The Week That Was: There’s no sugarcoating it, I’m afraid, and I take no pleasure in reporting this – the Illini look pretty damn good so far this season. Terrance Shannon had an incredible performance against UCLA, scoring 29 points and grabbing 10 boards while shooting 8 of 9 from deep. He helped lead the charge for Illinois to come back from a 15-point second-half deficit.
It makes sense that when Shannon struggled against UVA (nine points, six turnovers, 1 of 5 from deep), Illinois lost by nine. After the big week, the Illini moved up to No. 16 in the AP Poll, behind only IU and MSU from the Big Ten.
The Week Upcoming: They’ve got one game this week, on Friday against Lindenwood. KenPom only gives them a 99.7 percent chance of winning, so we’ll learn definitively if Illinois is really a contender based on this game.
Indiana
KenPom rank: AdjEM 8, AdjO 11, AdjD 10
Results: (W) at Xavier, 81-79; (W) vs. Miami (Ohio), 86-56
The Week That Was: In a truly hostile environment road game, the Hoosiers clawed out a two-point win against Xavier thanks in large part to their big man tandem of Trayce Jackson-Davis and freshman Malik Reneau. TJD is looking like one of the best players in America and the team is already clicking on all cylinders on offense and defense.
Star freshman PG Jalen Hood-Schifino struggled shooting the ball against Xavier, causing some to levy Fraud Allegations against him, but it’s too early for that. He still had four assists and only one turnover while grabbing five boards and snaring a pair of steals. Freshmen sometimes struggle during their first road game. He’ll be fine.
The Week Upcoming: A pair of home contests against sub-300 KenPom teams sandwich Thanksgiving for the Hoosiers this week. Whatever, there’s football and World Cup on all week, I don’t need Indiana basketball gumming up the timeline.
Iowa
KenPom rank: AdjEM 15, AdjO 3, AdjD 57
Results: (W) at Seton Hall, 83-67
The Week That Was: The Hawkeyes went on the road and absolutely dismantled a very good Seton Hall team. Kris Murray looked excellent and we here at Weasel Weekly are looking very strongly into finding out who said he was going to stink this year. We won’t rest until that person, whoever he or she may be, is brought to justice. Filip Rebraca had four blocks against the Pirates. Love that for him.
The Week Upcoming: Iowa had a tuneup game against Nebraska Omaha on Monday night, which they presumably won…but if they didn’t, pretend I am slandering Murray’s entire family here. Then they travel to Florida for something called the Emerald Coast Classic, where they for sure play Clemson and then either Cal or TCU. At least these games might be competitive!
Maryland
KenPom rank: AdjEM 22, AdjO 19, AdjD 34
Results: (W) vs. Binghamton, 76-52; (W) vs. Saint Louis, 95-67; (W) vs. Miami (Fla.), 88-70
The Week That Was: The Terps are really gonna do this, huh? In their first year under head coach Kevin Willard, Maryland is off to a 5-0 start with dominant wins over Saint Louis and Miami at a neutral site. I wasn’t quite sure what to make of this Maryland team, but they look like they’re going to exceed just about everyone’s expectations this season. Jahmir Young is turning the ball over too much but has otherwise slotted into the starting lineup seamlessly.
The Week Upcoming: An in-state battle with Coppin State and star of the Real Housewives of Potomac Juan Dixon awaits Maryland on Friday. Will the Willard Effect be enough to offset Dixon’s star power from begrudgingly appearing on a Bravo reality show every so often? Tune in to find out!
Michigan
KenPom rank: AdjEM 42, AdjO 28, AdjD 81
Results: (W) vs. Pitt 91-60; (L) vs. ASU 87-62; vs. Ohio (W) 70-66 (OT)
The Week That Was: The basketball gods giveth and they taketh away, as Michigan’s week was a textbook case of college hoops shooting variance. Against Pitt, the Wolverines couldn’t miss. Everyone on the roster was hot as the team went nearly 60 percent from the floor.
The very next night, on mostly open looks, they shot 4-22 (18 percent) from deep while Arizona State, a very poor shooting team, was making all manner of contested and off-balance shots.
To wrap up the week, Michigan needed overtime to beat a middling Ohio team, again missing a lot of clean looks (but actually playing pretty well defensively). Sometimes you just have to say ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.
I don’t think the shooting is a permanent concern. Michigan’s offense is consistently generating open looks for guys who can shoot, they just aren’t falling. Kobe Bufkin is right on the verge of breaking through – he’s doing everything he can to help the team, but his threes just continue to rim out. His mechanics look very good. He’ll be ok.
The thing that needs to be a point of emphasis is attacking the basket more on offense. Michigan has a lot of length and athleticism but often plays small with a perimeter-oriented approach. I’d like to see them get to the rim at a higher rate. Also worth noting: while Jett Howard is one of the most offensively gifted freshmen in the country, his defense is a certifiable war crime.
The Week Upcoming: Michigan only has one junk game in the next week against Jackson State. It will be searching for a break out of this .hooting slump against a bad team.
Michigan State
KenPom rank: AdjEM 21, AdjO 29, AdjD 22
Results: (W) vs. UK 86-11(OT); (W) vs. Villanova 71-73
The Week That Was: At initial blush, the Spartans are off to a very impressive start to the season. They suffered a narrow loss to Gonzaga and followed with wins over Kentucky and Villanova. We must be heading toward another classic MSU season, right? WRONG. Sunday, Gonzaga played Kentucky and blew it out. With that additional helpful data point it is clear how to frame these early season results:
- MSU only kept it close with Gonzaga because it was a weird outdoor boat game.
- It won an OT game with Kentucky after the Wildcats made a comedy of errors down the stretch, and we’ve now seen that Kentucky was massively overrated early on. It did not belong on the same floor as Gonzaga.
- Villanova absolutely STINKS. It lost to Temple, played a close game against Delaware State and still managed to keep it to a two-point game at Breslin.
Dear Reader, I submit to you the above evidence and posit that the Spartans are on Fraud Watch. Don’t be fooled by the big names/results.
The Week Upcoming: Joey Houser has been outstanding so far this year. Tyson Walker has been orders of magnitude better than A.J. Hoggard so far in the PG battle. So, what is the takeaway?
MSU is probably not as good as it has looked, despite some big-name Ws. Early season Kentucky is often susceptible to losses like this. An interesting contest with a very fun and dangerous Alabama team at Breslin looms, and MSU’s lack of a solid bench unit is certain to rear its head at some point.
Minnesota
KenPom rank: AdjEM 148, AdjO 145, AdjD 144
Results: (L) vs. DePaul, 69-53; (W) vs. Central Michigan, 68-60
The Week That Was: The Gophers, who are very bad, lost to the only team they have played so far this season with a pulse, DePaul. Dawson Garcia is going to have a crazy stat line by the end of the season because someone has to score for Minnesota.
The Week Upcoming: On Monday night, the Gophers played Cal Baptist in the Surf Division opening round of the SoCal Challenge. The Lancers are good and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Minnesota lose this one. They’ll play the second game of the Challenge against either UNLV or Southern Illinois.
Nebraska
KenPom rank: AdjEM 111, AdjO 130, AdjD 108
Results: (L) @ St. Johns 70-50; (W) vs. AR-Pine Bluff 82-58
The Week That Was: Is Nebraska good? No. Are they FUN to watch? Uh… also not really. The Cornhuskers looked horrendous against St. John’s, shooting poorly from all three levels, losing the basketball too much and struggling in general with their organization on both ends of the floor. Things look bleak in Corntown, Readers. They were able to run AR-Pine Bluff, but their 24-point win in that game was just the fourth-worst margin for the Golden Lions.
The Week Upcoming: Nebraska hosts Oklahoma in a game that is likely to go about as well as a few months ago when Nebraska hosted Oklahoma in football. I’m not sure how much longer it’ll be until Hoiberg goes the way of Scott Frost.
Northwestern
KenPom rank: AdjEM 58, AdjO 117, AdjD 24
Results: (W) @ Georgetown 75-63; (W) vs. PFW 60-52
The Week That Was: Is Northwestern the best team in the Big Ten? The current standings certainly suggest it. The Wildcats beat Georgetown pretty comprehensively on the road, and even if Georgetown is really bad (it is), that’s a pretty nice win.
Meanwhile, the Chase Audige disaster watch is chugging right along. He went 8 for 22 from the field this week and is shooting a robust 31 percent from the field on 24.1 percent usage. Breathtaking stuff.
The Week Upcoming: Northwestern is playing Liberty in Cancun next week. This is not a Madlib. It’ll play either Auburn or Bradley the following day. Ariba.
Ohio State
KenPom rank: AdjEM 29, AdjO 30, AdjD 41
Results: (W) vs. E. Illinois 65-43
The Week That Was: Ohio State played one game this week against tomato can Eastern Illinois, so we really haven’t learned anything new. Brice Sensabaugh continued his nice start to the season with a 20-point effort off the bench. Sean McNeil has looked surprisingly lost so far. Coming from a P5 conference where he scored a lot (West Virginia), my guess is that it clicks for him eventually, but a 29-minute performance in which he scores 0 points and only attempts 2 shots is certainly worth raising an eyebrow at.
The Week Upcoming: OSU takes on its first opponent with a pulse with San Diego State in the Maui invitational (KenPom has OSU as a five-point underdog). The follow-up game will be against either Cincinnati or Arizona, and the Bucks will play a third game against one of Arkansas, Creighton, Louisville or Texas Tech.
Penn State
KenPom rank: AdjEM 31, AdjO 32, AdjD 44
Results: (W) vs. Butler, 68-62; (W) vs. Furman, 73-68; (L) vs. Virginia Tech, 61-59; (W) vs. Colorado State, 68-56
The Week That Was: The Nittany Lions whipped ass last week. They beat Butler in the Gavitt Games and then they went down to South Carolina for the Charleston Classic and beat Furman and Colorado State while only losing to Virginia Tech by a basket.
PSU has been lights out from three this year and is not turning the ball over much at all. Jalen Pickett has been electric and already has 45 assists and only 10 turnovers while also hitting the defensive boards with abandon and shooting 38.1 percent from deep – that’s, somehow, the worst percentage from deep for any of PSU’s starters. I love this team.
The Week Upcoming: Like most of the teams in the Big Ten, Penn State doesn’t have much on the docket this week. It plays Lafayette on Friday, and that’s it!
Purdue
KenPom rank: AdjEM 25, AdjO 14, AdjD 51
Results: (W) vs. Marquette 75-70
The Week That Was: The Boilers won a really entertaining game with Marquette, and the biggest takeaway for me was that Zach Edey was able to play 33 effective minutes in a fairly up-tempo game. That’s a huge development for Purdue.
Edey was awesome, scoring 20 points to go with 13 rebounds and three blocks. I think Edey is going to be a legitimate POY challenger (but the anti-tall Canadian propaganda machine is already working against him). Purdue demonstrated some of the great discipline we’ve come to expect with Painter-led teams, too, coughing up just six turnovers. I’m feeling pretty good about my projection of the Boilers at the top of the conference.
The Week Upcoming: Purdue has another great matchup on deck with a road game at West Virginia this week. I highly recommend tuning in.
Rutgers
KenPom rank: AdjEM 45, AdjO 112, AdjD 12
Results: (L) vs. Temple 72-66
The Week That Was: Rutgers lost to a very mid Temple team in a truly vintage Rutgers offensive performance. It went 1 for 16 from three on the way to a team eFG of 39.2 percent. Woof. Not many teams are going to win when they shoot like that from deep, and it’s probably going to be a recurring theme for the Knights. Fun times in store at the Jersey Mike’s Arena.
The Week Upcoming: Rutgers takes on two god-awful teams in Rider and Central Connecticut. It’s possible that neither cracks 50 points in Piscataway.
Wisconsin
KenPom rank: AdjEM 41, AdjO 80, AdjD 21
Results: (W) vs. Green Bay, 56-45
The Week That Was: If you thought Wisconsin basketball was boring before, now the Badgers are barely beating an in-state opponent while shooting 30.2 percent from the field. This shit sucks!
The Week Upcoming: Having only played one game last week, and on Tuesday at that, the Badgers are now fully rested for their trip to the Bahamas and the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament.
UW opens the tournament against Dayton on Wednesday, by far its toughest test of the young season, and then will play either N.C. State or Kansas in the next round. This will be a good measuring stick to see how far along this unproven Wisconsin team is and whether it’ll be a contender for a top-six spot in the conference or not.