Wisconsin had no choice but to fire Paul Chryst. One ranked finish and one division title in the five year span from 2018 through 2022 (the Badgers were clearly not going to win the West under Chryst playing like this this season, let alone finish in the top 25) is unacceptable from the standards expected by the program. Losing at home to Washington State, getting blown out by Ohio State,  and then taking a 24-point non-competitive drubbing from former Badgers head coach Bret Bielema and his Illinois unit proved to be an embarrassing trio of missteps, but they were the end to a concerning trend under Chryst.

Chryst returned to Madison following three years as head coach at Pitt not because of any spectacular results for the Panthers, but because he earned the reputation of being a quarterback developer during his seven years as offensive coordinator in Madison. Russell Wilson’s brilliant campaign was perhaps overcredited to Chryst and we’ve certainly seen nothing of the sort repeated again for the Badgers. Graham Mertz was a marquee recruit for the program and has seen some small improvement this season, but has largely been a massive disappointment through three seasons as a starter. 

Not only is the promised quarterback development not occurring, the Badgers have also seen some diminishing returns in the running game. Illinois held the team’s running backs to just 21 yards on 16 carries in their embarrassing loss. Likewise, when Ohio State took a 45-7 lead on the Badgers with two minutes remaining in the third quarter, the Buckeyes had bottled up would-be star Braelon Allen for just 50 yards on 13 carries prior to garbage time.

In the nine combined years of Bret Bielema and Gary Andersen prior to Chryst, Wisconsin went 97-32 (.752) with three conference championships, an additional divisional title, and seven ranked finishes. Compared to a 67-26 record in seven seasons with him (.720), no conference championship, three division titles, and just four ranked finishes, the program had taken a small, but perceptible step backwards. More importantly, the strength of the program had nothing to do with Chryst or his offense, but rather was carried on the back of defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard’s consistently excellent unit.

It is Leonhard’s defenses that ranked in the top five of defensive SP+ three times in his five full seasons as defensive coordinator, falling outside of the top 15 just once. Even now, in a disastrous Wisconsin season with multiple starting defensive backs out for extended time, they rank 14th in that mark. In the seven games Wisconsin has won against top 25 opponents in Leonhard’s 2017-2021 run, they averaged just 17.9 points allowed per game to those opponents. It’s his group making the difference for his alma mater, which is exactly why he’s now earned the tryout that he has for the head coaching job at Wisconsin.

All accounts close to the program seem to point to the idea that it is, in fact, Leonhard’s job to lose. He is being given an extended tryout to prove he can right the ship that Chryst has tilted off-kilter. With a road stint at Northwestern and Michigan State looking eminently winnable, the rest of his slate consists of a home contest against Purdue, the Halloween bye week, and a November stretch of vs Maryland, at Iowa, at Nebraska, and vs Minnesota. The Badgers absolutely want Leonhard to make a bowl game and seize this job. He is the favored son of the program who has already delivered everything they’ve asked of him and they want to keep him within the ranks in the same way they have done for years. Athletic director Chris McIntosh is a Barry Alvarez era alum himself who graduated just before Leonhard arrived in Madison as a walk-on. There is no doubt that everyone in and around the program wants this to work out… but what if it doesn’t?

The possibility has to be considered. As Meet at Midfield member Jake Aferiat pointed out, the track record of interim head coaches winning and keeping a head coaching job is not exactly the best. Ed Orgeron, Phil Fulmer, and Lloyd Carr are the successful examples you point to if you’re a Wisconsin fan, but it’s not like Leonhard has the reputation of being a ruthless and highly effective recruiter that that trio was known as.

If he doesn’t work out, the one and only successful option here for Wisconsin is Lance Leipold. The Kansas head coach has the Jayhawks at 5-0 headed into midseason, is a native son of Wisconsin, spent three years with the Badgers as a GA, and famously won six national championships at Division III powerhouse Wisconsin-Whitewater. Leipold arrived on the Division I scene when took over a Buffalo program that had posted two winning seasons in its previous 28 years of existence prior to his arrival and took them to a 10-win season, a top 25 finish, and three consecutive bowl appearances. Then he took his talents to Lawrence, Kansas and it took him just 17 games (with less than half of an offseason to prepare in his first year) to get the Jayhawks ranked for the first time since 2009.

Leipold is one of the best handful of coaches in Division I football and would be a coup for Wisconsin. The Badgers’ braintrust should absolutely be gauging his interest regardless of how things go with Leonhard, but they are clearly giving Leonhard the chance to win this job and force the decision for them, which is admirable if not necessarily the wisest move. The extended tryout gives everyone in Madison time to truly learn what they have in their current head man, gauge Leipold’s interest, and make a more permanent move at the end of the season.

This may be too harsh, but it’s also my opinion that a scenario where Wisconsin isn’t impressed with Leonhard’s performance enough to want to hire him and Leipold isn’t ultimately interested in coming to his home state would be a disaster. There is no next obvious candidate that would be an upgrade on Chryst. I think he had to go for the reasons mentioned above, but it’s not like other names being thrown out – Wazzu’s head coach Jake Dickert (another Wisconsin native), Kent State head coach Sean Lewis (a former Badgers tight end), or perennial moral-victor-but-actual-loser Matt Campbell – are clear upgrades over what Chryst was doing. I have pushed back aggressively on the Bo Pelini comparisons (because Nebraska’s sin wasn’t firing Pelini, but rather hiring a shitty Mike Riley afterwards) but Leonhard faltering and Leipold declining could push Wisconsin towards a repeat of that scenario. It isn’t likely, but it is a legitimate risk.

I think, in all likelihood, Leonhard wins this job out and proves himself to the administration enough to get a chance to revitalize the program and restore it to the perennial top 25 program it should be, but I’m curious to watch nonetheless. The dream scenario for Wisconsin might be Leonhard realizing he isn’t ready for the big-time yet and spending a few more years as the defensive coordinator in a Luke Fickell scenario underneath Leipold, however unlikely that may be. Regardless, put me down for expecting Leonhard to get the job but thinking the better move would be to hire Leipold.