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Miami
Coaching Changes: Mario Cristobal is still here as head coach, Jahmile Addae is still coaching defensive backs, and offensive and defensive line coaches Alex Mirabal and Joe Salave’a are still in Coral Gables. Every other part of the 2022 coaching staff has been changed.
Miami’s official media guide tabbed Josh Gattis (the actual OC and WRs coach), Frank Ponce (QBs), and Stephen Field (TEs) all as co-offensive coordinators for 2022. Gattis was fired, Ponce accepted a job as App State’s playcaller, and Field was shuffled into an off-field role in recruiting. Running backs coach Kevin Smith left for a job on Lane Kiffin’s staff at Ole Miss as well, replaced by Miami alum Tim Harris. Kevin Beard is on as wide receivers coach and Cody Woodiel takes over tight ends. Shannon Dawson, who coordinated some solid but unspectacular Houston offenses the last couple years, takes over as offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach.
On defense, Miami saw defensive coordinator Kevin Steele poached by Nick Saban, watched linebackers coach and co-DC Charlie Strong walk out the door to join him, and also lost defensive ends coach Rod Wright to an NFL job in Houston. Marshall’s Lance Guidry arrives to take over as defensive coordinator, an admittedly strong hire. In addition to the aforementioned Addae and Salave’a, his staff is rounded out with linebackers coach Derek Nicholson (Louisville) and Miami alum Jason Taylor (an analyst on last year’s staff) at defensive line.
Player Departures: Starting cornerback duo Tyrique Stevenson and D.J. Ivey are both off to the league, two of the lone bright spots for The U, and Stevenson’s loss in particular will be felt. Tight end Will Mallory was also drafted in the fifth-round. Honorable mention All-ACC offensive tackle D.J Scaife is gone as a UDFA after 52 career starts on the right side of the line, mostly at tackle. The left side is new too, with John Campbell and his 18 starts leaving Miami’s left tackle position to transfer to Tennessee. Defensive line contributor Darrell Jackson was a key piece for Miami and him transferring to Florida State is a bit of a gut punch here.
Noteworthy Players: For some reason, we’re all going to continue to hear a bunch of buzz about Tyler Van Dyke – who can hit exactly one pass, the slot throw down the sideline – but he sucks and that can be disregarded. I like long-time contributor Jalen Rivers a fair bit – he was honorable mention all-league in 2022 as a guard and will now transition to left tackle – and the return of Zion Nelson after knee injury at tackle should help the line too. Matt Lee and Javion Cohen are both solid on the interior too, transferring in from UCF and Alabama, respectively. Henry Parrish is respectable at running back, but look for true frosh Mark Fletcher to contribute. Tyler Harrell is challenging Van Dyke for the “most talked about but least impactful” award; the same thing happened for him at Bama last year after transferring there from Louisville and he did jack.
First-team All-American safety Kam Kinchens returning is a big win for the Canes, to say the least. He is one of the best in the country in the secondary. Five-star Leonard Taylor was honorable mention All-ACC as a redshirt freshman and he looks like an absolute dude, he should be a major impact player. Defensive end Akheem Mesidor transferred in from WVU before 2022 and contributed seven sacks, he’s another strong contributor. Linebacker Francisco Mauigoa (not to be confused with the offensive lineman with a nearly identical name), a Wazzu transfer, was a breakout player for the Cougs and should push for all-conference honors. That front seven could be damn good.
What to Know, Offense: The losses of both Scaife and Campbell on the offensive line are real blows – seeing 60 starts walk out the door at your two tackle positions is a big deal for just about any team. Despite that, I like the potential of Miami’s line. The aforementioned Rivers, Nelson, Lee and Cohen have combined for more than a hundred collegiate starts. Depth interior players Laurance Seymore, Jonathan Denis, and Anez Cooper have ten combined starts too. Five-star tackles Francis Mauigoa and Samson Okunlola also provide the ability to compete immediately. That is a hell of a foundation for any offensive unit to work from.
Unfortunately, they have an overrated quarterback, an average running back room, and an average-or-worse receiver room. Eighth-year Oregon transfer – get a fucking job! – tight end Cam McCormick is expected to start at that position, but he has been injured in six of his first seven seasons. This team’s strength is clearly at running back (despite my reservations on its talent) and offensive line, but Dawson plans to run an air raid system. Just such a stupid coaching staff with no coherent plan, incomprehensible.
What to Know, Defense: Aside from the defensive line duo I mentioned above – Taylor and Mesidor – the Canes also have end Jahfari Harvey returning and tackle Branson Deen returning. If Jackson came back, rather than transferring to their rival (lol), I would be ready to say this unit is elite too. Despite that, it is very, very good if it stays healthy and also has six blue-chip recruits in their first or second years, four of whom were former top 100 recruits. This could be a dangerous unit for other teams. Likewise, the three-man linebacker rotation of Mauigoa, Corey Flagg, and Wesley Bissainthe is dangerous. This defensive front shouldn’t trail main in the conference. While I do think Miami’s offensive staff is heinously stupid, having Guidry running the defense should get the most out of this group.
Kinchens and James Williams are one of the best safety duos in America, but the rest of the secondary is unknown. Transfer additions Jaden Davis and Davonte Brown of Oklahoma and UCF bring 53 combined starts and the Canes are also seemingly high on redshirt junior Daryl Porter Jr. If they can find a couple of consistent corner starters and another safety on this roster, those are the only remaining holes on the defense. Of course, that’s easier said than done.
The Drive-By Takes: I’m looking at a major step forward for Miami on both sides of the line in a league that doesn’t usually respond well to physicality. I think its front seven, its safeties, and its offensive line should all be among the best units in the country at their respective positions. I don’t think it has much in the way of skill talent right now and its choice for an offensive system is incredibly stupid based on its personnel. But if you ask me to pick between elite line play and mediocre skill play, especially in this league, than the other way around? There’s no question for me.
Projected Record: 8-4. I have Miami picking up comfortable wins against Miami (OH), Bethune-Cookman, Temple, Georgia Tech, Virginia, Louisville, and Boston College and then splitting their road games against North Carolina and N.C. State. I have them losing to Texas A&M, Clemson, and Florida State, but those first two games are at home, for what it’s worth. If you’re low on Texas A&M and squint a bit, you can see this team finding its way to ten wins. I wouldn’t bet on that because I think the offensive skill talent is too shitty and their offensive coaches are too bad, but if you disagree with me, you could be more bullish than this.
N.C. State
Coaching Changes: N.C. State does replace its offensive coordinator and offensive line coach going into 2023, but the staff is unchanged around head coach Dave Doeren besides that. Long-time loser Tim Beck is off to a head coaching job/special Ruin Grayson McCall operation at Coastal Carolina and offensive line coach John Garrison accepted the same job at Lane Kiffin’s Ole Miss. They are replaced by a dynamic duo from the successful Virginia offense of 2021, with offensive coordinator Robert Anae (who was since at Syracuse) and offensive line coach Garrett Tujagae joining the mix for the Wolfpack. It’s a clear upgrade if you ask me.
Player Departures: Devin Leary’s absolutely brilliant 2021 campaign was not quite as successful early in 2022 and then he was injured, but he’s now transferred off to Kentucky. It’s a significant loss by my count. Interior offensive linemen Chandler Zavala and Grant Gibson, both first-team All-ACC, are gone from this group too. Three of the top four receiving targets from 2022 are out of here, led by Thayer Thomas. Demie Sumo, the team’s most efficient running back, is gone.
Second-team All-ACC linebacker Drake Thomas has been the heart and soul of this defense for years and he is also lost to graduation. Second-team All-ACC safety Tanner Ingle, third-team defensive tackle Cory Durden, and honorable mentions Isaiah Moore (linebacker) and Tyler Baker-Williams (corner) have departed from the roster too.
If you’re keeping track at home, that’s nine starters with All-ACC distinctions who will not return to the roster in 2023.
Noteworthy Players: Brennan Armstrong, the long-time Virginia starting quarterback, has transferred to Raleigh to reunite with Anae. Armstrong sucked in two of his three starting seasons, but was very good when working with Anae in 2021, so there is room for hope here. Tackle Timothy McKay was respectable in 2022 and will help provide an anchor to the line, one of four offensive linemen with some starting experience for the Wolfpack. Corner Aydan White, a first-team All-ACC corner, is a huge returner on defense. Shyheim Battle has been respectable and will start opposite him. Linebacker Payton Wilson, honorable mention All-ACC, feels like he’s been here for a century and is back again. He’ll a be key steadying force to this defense.
What to Know, Offense: I am relatively high on this offensive line despite Zavala and Gibson’s departures. McKay is one of the better tackles in the conference and likewise for Dylan McMahon at center. Anthony Belton (eight career starts) should man the other tackle spot opposite McKay and Anthony Carter and Dawson Jaramillo (Oregon transfer) have the inside track at guard, but don’t count out the versatile Derrick Eason winning a starting role in his sixth year. They should provide a rock-solid foundation for Armstrong, who needs to improve in 2023. Running back will be done by committee, but likely led by senior Jordan Houston again. Other than fifth-year Keyon Lesane, wide receiver is fairly open. Clemson transfer Dacari Collins and the returning Porter Rooks and Christopher Toudle should be contenders. Tight end is a total mystery. The skill positions frankly leave a lot to be desired, but Anae has been known to work miracles before.
Although I don’t love Armstrong and think his reputation is a bit overblown, backup M.J. Morris acquitted himself very well as a true freshman in three starts — he accounted for 687 yards and eight touchdowns with just one turnover — and should be available if called upon.
What to Know, Defense: Tony Gibson’s 3-3-5 has been consistently excellent and should be again. Despite losing Thomas and Moore, the linebackers should again be among the best in the country with Wilson leading Devon Betty and Jaylon Scott, each of whom have starting experience. The corners, as noted above, are very good and White has All-American upside. It seems like Sean Brown is ready to step up at safety with fellow returners Devan Boykin and Jakeen Harris, though Old Dominion transfer Robert Kennedy can play a real role as well. If defensive end Davin Vann and tackle C.J. Clark are as good or better than they were in 2022 and Savion Jackson returns to form at end after his knee injury, this will once again be an elite unit in 2023. It is fairly shocking that no one has poached Gibson away from the Wolfpack, he is one of the country’s best defensive coordinators and I don’t anticipate much of a dropoff here despite all of the personnel losses. Depth could be a challenge and they’ll need to stay healthy, but who doesn’t?
The Drive-By Takes: I trust the coaching at N.C. State to a reasonable extent. Gibson is one of the best defensive coordinators in America and Anae knows how to make something from nothing on offense, though not necessarily produce elite units. Doeren provides a high floor for this team and the defense can keep them in just about any game. I think this is a classic upper-middle class ACC team: well-coached enough to win the games they should, not fuck up too bad, but no real challenge to the class of the conference for a title game bid. The criminally easy schedule helps.
Projected Record: 7-5. Exactly on the nose for the Vegas over/under. Give me wins at UConn, vs VMI, at Virginia, vs Louisville, vs Marshall, at Virginia Tech and losses vs Notre Dame, at Duke, vs Clemson, and vs North Carolina. Then I’ll have them splitting the pair of games vs Miami and at Wake Forest in early November. Nothing spectacular, nothing terrible. Another empty N.C. State season.
North Carolina
Coaching Changes: North Carolina is replacing nearly its entire offensive brain trust and its top recruiter going into the 2023 season. Offensive coordinator Phil Longo, RGC John Lilly, and offensive line coach Jack Bicknell all left for greener pastures, although PGC/WRs coach Lonnie Galloway and STC/RBs coach Larry Porter are significant returns. That the new offense is led by noted dunces Chip Lindsey and Freddie Kitchens should be a concern if you’re a Tar Heels fan. The defense remains largely unchanged, but losing alum and standout defensive backs coach Dre Bly to the Detroit Lions (replaced by Indiana’s Jason Jones) is a huge blow to recruiting efforts.
Player Departures: The Tar Heels lose their top two receivers to the NFL Draft, and that Josh Downs and Antoine Green duo that went for 3774 receiving yards over the last couple seasons will definitely be missed. Offensive tackle Asim Richards, the top player from last year’s offensive line that already wasn’t very good, is now in the league as well as a fifth-round selection. UNC will also be missing corners Storm Duck (Louisville) and Tony Grimes (Texas A&M), who transferred out after admittedly disappointing careers, but were still pro prospects and high-end talents on the defense. Finally, defensive tackle Raymond Vohasek, a seventh-round pick, is gone from a defensive line that already struggled to find success (I’m being very nice) last year.
Noteworthy Players: The absolute key name here is all-world quarterback Drake Maye, who should be a top two pick in the NFL Draft unless something shocking happens. They just do not make many who play like him and that is a special talent in Chapel Hill. Wide receiver Devontez Walker, a Kent State transfer, should be his top target; the MAC transfers have been hit-and-miss over the last few years, but the fact that he went for over a C-note against Georgia should provide some comfort. Center (or perhaps guard, with a transfer coming in) Corey Gaynor was honorable mention All-ACC and will lead the offensive line. First-team All-ACC linebacker Cedric Gray is also a dude here, he should be one of the best in the conference.
What to Know, Offense: North Carolina’s offensive line returns 88 career FBS starts between Gaynor, guards Ed Montilus and William Barnes, and tackle Spencer Rolland. Coastal Carolina center transfer Willie Limpkin, a first-team All-Sun Belt selection in 2022, brings 38 more. Former five-star Zach Rice enter his second season and should compete with Barnes at tackle if you assume that Limpkin will insert into the starting lineup on the interior. The continuity and experience of that unit should (or at least UNC fans are hoping will) provide a huge boost from last year’s sieve that allowed far too many pressures on Maye.
The good news is that 98.6-percent of last year’s rushing production is back for North Carolina and sixth-year back British Brooks is back after missing 2022 with a season-ending injury. That is a deep and experienced group that can rotate to find the hot hand. Other than the aforementioned Walker, Maye should have a bevy of targets. Georgia Tech’s top receiver Nate McCollum (655 yards in 2022) has transferred in and the trio of J.J. Jones, Kobe Paysour, and Gavin Blackwell that combined for a thousand yards are back too. Then you factor in that the team’s top three tight ends – Bryson Nesbit, Kamari Morales, and John Copenhaver – are all back too. That’s nearly 4400 career receiving yards back in the Carolina blue catching passes from perhaps the best quarterback in America.
What to Know, Defense: Carolina couldn’t generate a pass rush, couldn’t stop the run, and couldn’t play the ball when it was in the air last year. Other than that, Mr. Brown, how was the play? These guys simply fucking sucked and I don’t know that it gets that much better in 2023. I really like Gray and his partner Power Echols (top-tier LB name) at linebacker, but I don’t know about the rest of this group. Defensive back transfers Alijah Huzzie (East Tennessee), Armanti Chatman (Virginia Tech), and Antavious Lane (Georgia State) should be solid and Marcus Allen isn’t a bum at safety.
The problem is that this defensive line fucking suuuuucks. The Tar Heels have signed 13 blue-chip players on the line in the past four recruiting classes, including two five-stars and five other top 200 players, but have been absolutely putrid. If all of that talent is ever going to show up on the field, now would be a good time for that to happen. Without growth there, this is another cellar dweller unit again after finishing bottom 40 nationally in scoring defense, yards per play, turnovers forced, rushing yards per carry, and passing yards per game allowed.
The Drive-By Takes: The North Carolina offense was a top 30 unit in basically every major statistical category last year and should be even better at every position group on that side of the football. They do avoid the second-year Phil Longo curse, but Chip Lindsey is a bit of a moron, so it may be a wash on playcalling. The improvements will come from offensive line continuity providing stability and protection and Maye doing more of the same. They are going to score buckets of points, but there’s little reason to believe they won’t allow nearly as many once again. The Tar Heels played in nine one-score games last season and went 6-3 in those contests. They’re just rolling the dice on high variability games again and again.
Projected Record: 7-5. I think North Carolina has four clear wins against App State, Syracuse, Virginia, and Campbell. I think they have one clear loss at Clemson. The other seven games – neutral site against South Carolina, vs Minnesota, at Pitt, vs Miami, at Georgia Tech, vs Duke, at N.C. State – could very easily go either way. I’ll take them to beat Miami and Georgia Tech and one of their three rivalry games, losing to the other two, Minnesota, and Pitt. This is my luck regression bet of the season.
Pitt
Coaching Changes: None.
Player Departures: Pitt put an impressive 12 players onto the all-conference teams last season from its 8-4 squad in 2022, but it will have some work to do replacing them. First-round pick Calijah Kancey and star running back Izzy Abanikanda are the biggest losses here, but top receiver Jared Wayne, offensive linemen Macus Minor and Carter Warren, linebacker SirVocea Dennis, and safeties Brandon Hill and Erick Hallett are gone too. Each of those players were either first or second-team All-ACC, NFL Draft selections, or both. Don’t discount the defensive end exodus either: Deslin Alexandre and Habakkuk Baldonado graduated and John Morgan transferred to Arkansas.. Pitt also lost starting quarterback Kedon Slovis, but he sucks and was a pretty poor locker room presence by all accounts too. Regardless, ESPN ranks this program 119th in returning production, which is brutal to overcome.
Noteworthy Players: Pitt lost two of its full-time offensive line starters, but still returns five players on the line with starting experience, led by third-team All-ACC standouts Jake Kradel, who split time between guard and center, and tackle Matt Goncalves. Running back Rodney Hammond made two starts in 2022 when Abanikanda was banged up and combined for 217 yards and three touchdowns on 53 carries in those games. Former five-star Phil Jurkovec is back home to start at quarterback and I do think his mobility will be a significant improvement over Slovis, though I’ll discuss that more below. The Panthers will rely on defensive end Dayon Hayes and defensive tackle Devin Danielson, the former an emerging young player and the latter a veteran hand, to be the foundation of their defensive front.
What to Know, Offense: Pitt’s offensive line should be among the best in the country under coach Dave Borbely, with 84 returning starts and versatility across the group. Hammond is back and former top 100 recruit Derrick Davis Jr. transferred home from LSU, who should also provide a presence. I will note that Hammond needs to cut down on those fumbles – three in 109 carries is sky high – if he wants to keep this job, though he was fortunate not to lose any last season. Jurkovec is also a threat with his legs, though taking 217 hits throughout the last four years (carries and sacks combined) is waaaay too many and he needs to be protected better than Boston College did for him. The good news for Pitt fans is, as Pete Fiutak pointed out, they are 26-1 since 2019 when rushing for at least 140 yards in a game and should be able to hit that mark with some frequency in 2023.
The receiving game is more complicated, though. Pitt sucked through the air last year with Slovis and I’m not convinced that Jurkovec is any better. With Wayne gone, returning contributors Konata Mumpfield and Bub Means (combined for 952 receiving yards in 2022) and Florida transfer Daejon Reynolds (averaged 22.2 yards per reception in Florida’s all-or-nothing passing attack) will need to step up. So will veteran tight end Gavin Bartholomew, one of the better returns in the country.
What to Know, Defense: The Pitt defense always find a way to create a pass rush with defensive line coach Charlie Partridge – they’ve ranked third or better in sacks in each of the last four seasons – and that will be essential again, even after losing those four major defensive linemen that I mentioned above. Tackle Devin Danielson and end Dayon Hayes need to become NFL players for that kind of result, but I do believe that they can. Linebacker should be in good hands with Shayne Simon and Bangally Kamara back again. The corner duo of M.J. Devonshire and Marquis Williams is one of the better starting pairings in the country. Donovan McMillan, another former blue-chip recruit who transferred home after starting his career at Florida, and Javon McIntyre will need to step up at safety to protect the back end of this defense. If that pair is solid, you have to trust Partridge and defensive coordinator Randy Bates to create pressure in the way that they always do.
Redshirt seniors David Green, Tyler Bentley, Deandre Jules, and Bam Brima will be asked to step up; so will former blue-chip local recruits Elliot Donald (Aaron’s nephew) and Nakhi Johnson as they enter their third seasons. This defensive line being able to go eight-deep with either blue-chips or veterans and a very experienced and competent linebacker corps offers some relief from the huge question marks at safety.
The Drive-By Takes: Frank Cignetti is one of the most boring and predictable playcallers in all of college football and he’s back once again to lead this offense. While Jurkovec should be a slight upgrade over Slovis and the offensive line will be very good, I think he sets a low ceiling for what this group can be. That means Pitt’s defense needs to carry the banner as always under Pat Narduzzi (the most Youngstown man alive) and Bates. The rate at which Pitt develops defensive players – 14 draftees from that side of the ball in the past six seasons – should provide some comfort. The gameplan for the Panthers looks like old-school Steelers football – run the rock, stop the run, and get home on third-down pressures while leaving your corners on islands. It’s worked lately, maybe it will again.
Projected Record: 8-4. The over/under here is at 7.5 and it’s a very good one. Pitt should beat Wofford, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Virginia Tech (those two are on the road), Syracuse, and Boston College to get to six wins. They just need to take out one of North Carolina or Louisville at home or Wake or Duke on the road. Hell, even Notre Dame on the road looks a bit vulnerable. This team lacks experience, but they should be able to fulfill the Narduzzi playbook well as long as those safeties aren’t a disaster.