Weasel Weekly is Meet at Midfield’s weekly look at Big Ten men’s basketball presented by guest contributors Drew Hamm and Stefan Zonia.
You can find Drew on Twitter at his personal account, @drewhamm5, where he talks Philly sports, Wisconsin sports, and other nonsense. You can also subscribe to his Wisconsin basketball/football/volleyball newsletter @BadgersBallKnow where it’s all UW, all the time.
Stefan can be found on Twitter @iamstefanzonia where he discusses Michigan sports (college and pro), sports betting and entertains any and all internet absurdities.
We split up the conference in a fantasy draft format. Here’s a quick recap of who is covering who:
Stefan – Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Nebraska, Ohio State, Purdue and Rutgers
Drew – Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Minnesota, Penn State and Wisconsin
Two things are true about this year’s Big Ten:
- It’s the least talented the league has been in recent memory
- The race for the conference title will be really fun
Any team can beat any team (except Minnesota, which will certainly go 0-20 in the conference). It’s a conference full of average teams that will play coin-flip games against each other all season. No team made it to 4-0, and only the Gophers have failed to win a game in their first four. Barttorvik currently projects NINE teams to finish with between 9 and 11 wins. Only three teams are currently projected to finish below .500: Minnesota, Nebraska and Indiana. That means a 10-10 team would be playing on day one of the conference tournament while an 11-9 team gets a double bye. Let’s get weird.
Illinois
KenPom rank: AdjEM 32, AdjO 52, AdjD 36
Results: (L) at Northwestern, 73-60; (W) vs. Wisconsin, 79-69
The Week That Was: The Illini continued their incredibly inconsistent season with a loss at in-state rival Northwestern followed by a fairly convincing home win against a top-15 Wisconsin team. Illinois has now alternated wins and losses for their past nine games. Coleman Hawkins made 6-of-9 threes against UW after entering the game shooting, like, negative-8 percent from deep. An extremely normal team.
Oh yeah, and five-star freshman PG Skyy Clark announced that he was taking a leave of absence from the team for personal reasons. While the official stance of this column is to make fun of Illinois always it is ALSO the official stance of this column to support athletes’ mental health. We hope that Clark takes all of the time off he needs and deals with his personal matter successfully.
The Week Upcoming: Given their recent track record, you can probably Sharpie in a loss to Nebraska on the road and then a win at home against MSU on Friday. While the team has surely been inconsistent, their consistency in taking every other game off is admirable, and hopefully, someone has been making a lot of money gambling on them this past month. Maybe even Brad Underwood!
Indiana
KenPom rank: AdjEM 22, AdjO 22, AdjD 47
Results: (L) at Iowa, 91-89; (L) vs. Northwestern, 84-83
The Week That Was: The Hoosiers lost a barn-burner to Iowa last week in a game that was HEAVILY influenced by the aggressive virus known as Big Ten Officiating. We’ll discuss the refs – who should all be in prison no matter what sport they officiate – later in the column but you should know that they were especially egregious in this game.
IU also lost to Northwestern… hold on. Did Northwestern win two games last week? Against Illinois and Indiana? What the hell is going on? Are the Wildcats the best team in the Big Ten besides Purdue? I need to go lay down.
The Week Upcoming: The Hoosiers, who are missing 40 percent of their starting lineup, haven’t beaten a team with a pulse since Nebraska (and the pulse was weak) on Dec. 7. They get PSU on the road and Wisconsin at home this week. A pretty big “prove it” seven days for the Hoosiers.
Iowa
KenPom rank: AdjEM 40, AdjO 12, AdjD 117
Results: (W) vs. Indiana, 91-89; (W) at Rutgers, 76-65
The Week That Was: The Fraudeyes are back! Or, maybe not? Iowa might be good again. The Hawkeyes outlasted IU in a Ref Show on Thursday and then went into the RAC and took it to Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights rarely lose at home, and that’s a win I’m extremely impressed by.
The Week Upcoming: Iowa has a three-game homestand coming up. The first two matchups feature Michigan and Maryland coming to Iowa City. I have literally no idea what will happen in either of those games.
Maryland
KenPom rank: AdjEM 34, AdjO 54, AdjD 32
Results: (L) at Rutgers, 64-50; (W) vs. Ohio State, 80-73
The Week That Was: There’s no shame in getting blown out at the RAC, Maryland. It would never happen to Iowa, but Iowa has always been a better basketball region than the DMV, so it’s understandable.
Similar to several in the B1G, the Terps hadn’t won a game against a Power 6 opponent since the beginning of December (Illinois, Dec. 2), but on Sunday they took down Ohio State in a must-win situation for Kevin Willard’s Terps. Jahmir Young scored 30 points and had 11 rebounds to lead Maryland in the upset.
The Week Upcoming: Maryland gets a week off between games and doesn’t play again until Sunday when it hits the road to play Iowa. Will the time off stunt their newfound momentum or will they use the extra practice to unleash holy hell on the Hawkeyes? Who cares!
Michigan
KenPom rank: AdjEM 50, AdjO 41, AdjD 63
Results: (W) vs. Penn State 79-69; (L) @ Michigan State 59-53
The Week That Was: Michigan started the week with a really nice win over a good Penn State team. The Wolverines led through most of the game and weathered a couple of strong PSU runs only to push the lead back out to double digits. Michigan put a blueprint on tape of how to defend Penn State, playing off Jalen Pickett and forcing him to play hero ball. Pickett obliged and had an impressive 26-point night, but the complementary pieces were widely held in check. I would imagine that many teams take this approach moving forward.
The second game of the week was the annual trip to Breslin. I wrote before the game that my expectation was that the moment was probably still too big for the freshmen. Discounting the trip to Minnesota for obvious reasons, this was Michigan’s first true road test.
Sure enough. Dug McDaniel and Jett Howard combined for five turnovers and 3-of-12 shooting (10 points). Hunter Dickinson and Kobe Bufkin did what they could to keep Michigan hanging around late, but it wasn’t enough to get it done.
The Week Upcoming: Michigan faces two polar opposite teams this week with Iowa – an elite scoring offense that doesn’t even pretend to play defense – followed by Northwestern – which plays defense with about 10 players at once and absolutely refuses to score. Smart money is on a split.
Michigan State
KenPom rank: AdjEM 43, AdjO 62, AdjD 39
Results: (W) vs. Nebraska 74-56; (W) vs. Michigan 59-53
The Week That Was: It was a strong week for Sparty as they dispatched an occasionally feisty Nebraska team and won the home leg of their in-state rivalry. The Spartans did not shoot well in either game, but they played exceptional defense all week – Nebraska and Michigan shot a COMBINED 5 of 31 from three (16%)!
Some of that is small sample size variance, I can assure you that a majority of the looks that they were giving up were well contested. When you play with that level of defensive pressure, even the open shots feel difficult to make.
The return of Malik Hall has been a big lift, too. He was certainly MSU’s best player again Michigan, providing 15 points off the bench in a low-scoring affair.
After the victory against U-M, Tom Izzo made a moving tribute, dedicating this six-point win to the hilariously overpaid Mel Tucker – who notably lost by 22 points to Michigan in football. Really heroic stuff from Tom.
The Week Upcoming: MSU hit the road this week, traveling to the Kohl Center and Assembly Hall (Champagne version). Like with Michigan, the smart money is on a split here.
Minnesota
KenPom rank: AdjEM 191, AdjO 204, AdjD 175
Results: (L) at Wisconsin, 63-60; (L) vs. Nebraska, 81-79 (OT)
The Week That Was: This team is so bad, but they gave both the Badgers and Huskers scares this week. As someone who has watched more Wisconsin basketball (and Minnesota basketball) than is recommended by health officials, those results speak more to UW and Nebraska being bad than they do Minnesota being any good.
The Week Upcoming: The Gophers go for their first conference win against Ohio State on Thursday. They won’t get it, but they sure will go for it!
Nebraska
KenPom rank: AdjEM 85, AdjO 150, AdjD 44
Results: (L) vs Michigan State 74-56; (W) @ Minnesota 81-79
The Week That Was: Nebraska was suffocated by MSU. It shot a brutal 2 of 16 from three and had no answer for Tyson Walker, who rattled off 21 points. This was an unremarkable game, and not competitive for any stretch.
Nebraska followed it up on the road at Minnesota and played a back-and-forth affair that rightfully went into overtime. Forcing people to watch EXTRA Minnesota/Nebraska basketball is a violation of the Geneva Conventions. The Cornhuskers were able to hang on and pull out the road win, which makes me genuinely question whether Minnesota will tally a single win. By all measures, Nebraska is the second-worst team in the conference and Minnesota lost to it at home.
The Corn Barons now sit at 2-3 in the league, but there don’t appear to be a ton of wins left on the schedule. Barttorvik has them favored in just two more games at this point (and in one of those two, they’re favored by just 0.2). It could get ugly (uglier?) quickly.
The Week Upcoming: Nebraska hosts Illinois and then travels to Purdue. Illinois has been an absolute mess, but surely it can’t have fallen so badly that Nebraska would clip it, right? RIGHT?
Northwestern
KenPom rank: AdjEM 52, AdjO 162, AdjD 8
Results: (W) vs. Illinois 73-60; (W) @ Indiana 84-83
The Week That Was: My beloved Cats came up with two huge wins, defenestrating the Illini for Illinois supremacy and then knocking off Indiana.
Against Illinois, they claimed victory with their familiar approach of taking the air out of the ball and slowly choking their foe to death with outstanding defense and an offense so boring it lulls you into REM sleep and creates seven or eight unguarded layups, of which they might make one or two.
The Cats flipped the entire goddamn script against the Hoosiers. Barttorvik pegged the Cats’ offensive outburst at 128.4 AdjO – they came into the game under 100 AdjO score on the season, and this explosion still only moved them to 101.1 (208th in the country). Big props to Chase Audige, who dished out eight dimes, despite his normal inefficient shooting. Boo Buie absolutely torched IU’s defense on his way to a 26-point day.
The Wildcats sealed the high-scoring fiasco with a reminder that their defense is legit, not even allowing Indiana to get a shot off on their final possession of a one-point game. Northwestern is not good, but in this year’s edition of the conference, they can (and should) absolutely finish in the top half, despite losing their two best players from last year’s team.
Chris Collins is going to get a cartoonish, Kirk Ferentz-esque contract extension.
The Week Upcoming: Northwestern hosts Rutgers in a game that will be played in the 40s, both in the final score and the time period. Then it travels to Ann Arbor – two stiff tests for the biggest surprise team among the five one-loss squads in the standings.
Ohio State
KenPom rank: AdjEM 12, AdjO 1, AdjD 90
Results: (L) vs. Purdue 71-69; (L) @ Maryland 80-73
The Week That Was: It was a bad week for the Buckeyes. They played a hell of a game against Purdue and I hope you got to watch, because it was genuinely beautiful basketball. The teams exchanged haymakers and ran some really fun offense.
Ultimately, Purdue was balanced offensively while OSU relied on Brice Sensabaugh for almost every possession down the stretch. The freshman played valiantly and notched an impressive 21-point performance, but he couldn’t do it alone. Still, he’s looking like a lock to be a first-round pick in the summer.
The second game of the week was a massive letdown. OSU broke out to a five-point halftime lead but completely ran out of gas down the stretch. OSU ceded 46 points in the second half and took a loss that will hurt well beyond this week. Without Zed Key, it was again the Sensabaugh show – and that’s just not going to get the job done in this league. The Buckeyes really need to rediscover some of the balance they had early on, and it starts with Sean McNeil and Bruce Thornton getting back on track. This feels like a ridiculous thing to say about the presently ranked No. 1 KenPom offense, but here we are.
The Week Upcoming: OSU starts with a get-right game at home against the Gophers and then heads to Jersey Mike’s Arena to face a Rutgers team that will come out mad as hell after the controversial way it lost in Columbus earlier this year. I would wager quite a bit that OSU gets buried in this spot.
Penn State
KenPom rank: AdjEM 54, AdjO 36, AdjD 85
Results: (L) at Michigan, 79-69; (L) vs. Purdue, 76-63 (in Philadelphia)
The Week That Was: It was a brutal week for my beautiful Nittany Lions. A 10-point loss at a reeling Michigan, followed by a loss to No. 1 Purdue at the Palestra when they were leading at halftime was extremely disappointing for PSU. Pickett is balling out of control this season and that continued, but his teammates couldn’t pick up the slack.
Okay, I also have a quick screed against Big Ten refs: They stink! Everything Micah Shrewsberry says here is correct!
There is no consistency in how these refs call a game. Sometimes it’s a rock fight where literally anything short of bashing a player over the head with a steel chair is allowed, and other times they call fouls away from the ball when a defender accidentally breathes on their opponent. I’ll never defend a head coach like McCaffery, Izzo or Underwood who gets red and nude on the sidelines… but I understand where their rage comes from.
The Week Upcoming: Alright, Patrick was giving me the “wrap it up” signal, which is just him brandishing a Crocodile Dundee knife in my direction. PSU plays Indiana at home this week, and both teams desperately need a win. It should be a good one.
Purdue
KenPom rank: AdjEM 6, AdjO 2, AdjD 30
Results: (L) vs. Rutgers 65-64; (W) @ Ohio State 71-69; (W) @ Penn State 76-63
The Week That Was: I said in this space last week that Rutgers was going to topple Purdue, and topple it they did. This contest was tight throughout, but the Rutgers defense really derailed Purdue – the Boilermakers shot just 39 percent from the field, their worst output of the year by a good margin. Playing Rutgers remains miserable.
To Purdue’s credit, it bounced back with an outstanding win in Columbus, withstanding several big-time plays from OSU and responding with plenty of their own; Fletcher Loyer hit the go-ahead three while time was running down.
Painter’s crew then had to turn around and play their third game in a week, traveling to Philly to take on Penn State at one of the great college basketball cathedrals (The Palestra). A misstep here would have been understandable given the travel, the tough games they already played and a fired-up crowd gone off that Schuylkill water, but Purdue came out and handled business easily.
Penn State just does not have the interior defense to stop a player like Zach Edey. He went for 30 points and 13 board, which was more than enough to erase Pickett’s heroics. Purdue remains the class of the league.
The Week Upcoming: Purdue gets what I imagine is a welcomed quiet week. Its only game is a home tilt with Nebraska, which shouldn’t amount to much more than an open gym session.
Rutgers
KenPom rank: AdjEM 16, AdjO 131, AdjD 3
Results: (W) vs. Purdue 65-64; (W) vs. Maryland 64-50; (L) vs. Iowa 76-65
The Week That Was: I was ready, Reader. I was THIS close to declaring Rutgers as the favorites in the conference. I told Drew to prepare, because it was coming. The Knights had toppled Purdue in West Lafayette and turned around to thump Maryland. I had it all planned out.
And then Iowa walked into Jersey Mike’s and spit on the Gabagool. Nothing went right for Rutgers in this game. It shot 38 percent from the floor against one of the worst defensive teams you’ll find in any power conference. The Scarlet Knights didn’t defend with their normal vigor either, allowing the Hawkeyes to routinely get open looks. This was a massive letdown for Rutgers, its fans, me (but I repeat myself) and hoagie enjoyers everywhere.
The Week Upcoming: Rutgers travels to Evanston to film a shot-for-shot remake of Bloodsport. Next up is a chance to exact revenge against OSU for the miscarriage of justice that was their loss in Columbus.
Wisconsin
KenPom rank: AdjEM 51, AdjO 99, AdjD 22
Results: (W) vs. Minnesota, 63-60; (L) at Illinois, 79-69
The Week That Was: Star forward Tyler Wahl got hurt in the first half against Minnesota, and Wisconsin’s offense AND defense struggled for the rest of that game – and for the entire Illinois game – with Wahl on the bench. The Badgers aren’t as good as their No. 18 ranking in the AP Poll suggests, but they also aren’t as bad as their advanced stats suggest. With Wahl, they probably beat Illinois – but, that didn’t happen. C’est la vie!
The Week Upcoming: UW hosts MSU on Tuesday and then heads to Bloomington on Saturday. Those should be two close games that leave the losing fanbases totally satisfied with the outcome and the knowledge that their team played hard.