Weasel Weekly is Meet at Midfield’s weekly look at Big Ten men’s basketball presented by guest contributors Drew Hamm and Stefan Zonia.
You can find Drew on Twitter at his personal account, @drewhamm5, where he talks Philly sports, Wisconsin sports, and other nonsense. You can also subscribe to his Wisconsin basketball/football/volleyball newsletter @BadgersBallKnow where it’s all UW, all the time.
Stefan can be found on Twitter @iamstefanzonia where he discusses Michigan sports (college and pro), sports betting and entertains any and all internet absurdities.
We split up the conference in a fantasy draft format. Here’s a quick recap of who is covering who:
Stefan – Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Nebraska, Ohio State, Purdue and Rutgers
Drew – Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Minnesota, Penn State and Wisconsin
The regular season is finally over! This is merciful for most of the teams in this wretched conference. It had SEVEN teams tied for second place entering the final day of the regular season, and most of them lost. The league’s runaway winner continues to look bad in basically every game. Nebraska might be the team nobody wants to play right now and it finished at No. 12. That’s the kind of year it’s been. Let’s dive into our weekly dose of morbidity!
Illinois
KenPom rank: AdjEm 32, AdjO 65, AdjD 28
Results: (W) vs. Michigan, 91-87, 2OT; (L) at Purdue, 76-71
The Week That Was: It has taken all season, but I think I now understand the Illini. They’re bad! But also, sometimes, they’re good! Never TOO good, though.
They beat a desperate Michigan team in double overtime to reach 20 wins on the year and then lost a tough one to Big Ten Champion Purdue on the road. If you think you know what this team is going to do now that the postseason is upon us you are lying or from the future. Either way, I don’t want to hear from you.
The Week Upcoming: The Illini get Penn State on Thursday in the Big Ten Tournament. Projected currently as a No. 8 seed, they would love to move up a spot to avoid a second-round matchup with a No. 1 seed.
Indiana
KenPom rank: AdjEm 30, AdjO 30, AdjD 46
Results: (L) vs. Iowa, 90-68; (W) vs. Michigan, 75-73, OT
The Week That Was: After their big road win over archrival Purdue, the Hoosiers had a classic letdown game and got waxed by Iowa at Assembly Hall. Judging by the box score, only Trayce Jackson-Davis got the notification about the game even happening.
IU pulled its head out of its ass long enough to deny an even more desperate (since we know they already lost to Illinois) Michigan team an important win. The Hoosiers were getting stomped by Hunter Dickinson and company, and then just decided to fuck around and force overtime, where they ended up winning. TJD had another nice game and Critical Race Thompson had 16 points, 10 boards and four steals.
The Week Upcoming: The Hoosiers have a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament. They’re looking to secure a top-four seed.
Iowa
KenPom rank: AdjEm 35, AdjO 3, AdjD 169
Results: (W) at Indiana, 90-68; (L) vs. Nebraska, 81-77
The Week That Was: In Iowa’s dominant win over Indiana, Connor McCaffery played 31 minutes and scored zero points on one field goal attempt. That’s strange. Josh Dix played four minutes and scored three points on one field goal attempt. Is this another prime example of a nepo-baby getting repeated shots at a prized gig (Iowa starting lineup) at the expense of a more qualified candidate? I’m sure Gary Barta will get to the bottom of this.
Iowa also, hilariously, blew a big late lead to Nebraska to end the season. The Huskers swept the Hawkeyes this year in men’s basketball. Good.
The Week Upcoming: The Hawkeyes play the winner of Wisconsin/Ohio State on Thursday in the Big Ten Tournament. Their place in the NCAA tournament is secure, but they are fighting for better seeding, projected currently as a No. 7 seed.
Maryland
KenPom rank: AdjEm 20, AdjO 31, AdjD 31
Results: (L) at Ohio State, 73-62; (L) at Penn State, 65-64
The Week That Was: Really stumbling to the finish line, huh Maryland? Here’s a fun fact: The only away games that the Terps have won this year are against Minnesota (No. 222 in KenPom) and Louisville (No. 284). They are 2-1 in neutral site games, but I’m a little worried about Kevin Willard’s squad now that they won’t play at Xfinity Center for the rest of the year. Loss to Nebraska in Chicago soon come? Inshallah.
The Week Upcoming: The Terps play the winner of Nebraska/Minnesota on Thursday in the Big Ten Tournament. They’re in regardless of their result, but, like Illinois, would love to move off the eight-seed line.
Michigan
KenPom rank: AdjEM 38, AdjO 43, AdjD 52
Results: (L; 2OT) @ Illinois 91-87; (L; OT) @ Indiana 75-73
The Week That Was: This week was a perfect microcosm of Michigan’s season: Stretches of play where it looks supremely talented, but marred by longer stretches of total ineptitude.
At Illinois, U-M was trailing big early on before roaring back and forcing overtime. It got out to a seven-point lead in OT before totally folding. Against Indiana, the Wolverines looked dead on arrival and then went on a massive run to take a commanding lead before slowly pissing it away, looking completely lost on offense.
The team lacks depth, often looks unprepared, and – Hunter Dickinson’s prayer shot against Wisconsin notwithstanding – has been as bad at end-game execution as any team I have ever watched in my lifetime. This is not hyperbole. They’re 1 for 23(!!!) on field goal attempts in final possessions of regulation/overtime periods that see U-M tied or within three points (they went 0-5 in such situations this week alone). The percentage is not actually surprising if you consider the shots, because they have had virtually zero good looks and almost always settle for heavily contested heaves even when they have plenty of time to run a play.
Despite all of that, a win at Indiana would have landed them in the No. 2 seed for this league. It’s been that kind of year in the conference. Now, a truly frustrating year comes down to Michigan needing to win the Big Ten Tournament to make the postseason (they won’t).
The Week Upcoming: Michigan is the 8-seed and will play 9-seed Rutgers, which it just beat on the road a week ago. If the Wolverines get past the Knights they’ll face the rapidly fading Boilermakers on Friday.
Michigan State
KenPom rank: AdjEM 28, AdjO 36, AdjD 37
Results: (W) @ Nebraska 80-67; (W) vs Ohio State 84-78
The Week That Was: Michigan State avoided any slipups in their final two games against bottom 4 opponents and were rewarded by nearly every team in front of them face-planting. On Sunday, despite being idle, they passed 4 teams to jump into 4th and secure the double bye. This team remains deeply unthreatening, but have avoided any serious self-inflicted injuries, which puts them in the upper tier of competence here.
The Week Upcoming: MSU finishes with the No. 4 seed and will face the winner of Iowa and OSU/Wisconsin. Sitting currently as a No. 6 seed in the Big Dance (per ESPN), the Spartans may not want to do too much damage this week – the bubble teams fighting for 11 seeds could very well be easier opponents than strong one-bid league champions like Oral Roberts, VCU, Drake or Charleston.
Minnesota
KenPom rank: AdjEm 222, AdjO 241, AdjD 189
Results: (W) vs. Rutgers, 75-74; (L) vs. Wisconsin, 71-67
The Week That Was: After losing 12 straight Big Ten games, your Minnesota Golden Gophers finally got back in the win column this past week! Somehow, someway, Minnesota beat Rutgers at The Barn, thanks in large part to Dawson Garcia’s heroics.
With 1:15 left in the game, Rutgers was up 10 points and had a 99.7 percent chance of winning. With 0:00 left in the game, Minnesota took its first lead, 75-74, and Rutgers had a 0 percent chance of winning. Cool.
The Gophers gave the Badgers everything they could handle to end the season, but couldn’t beat UW for the first time in, like, 1,200 days.
The Week Upcoming: The Gophers play Nebraska on Wednesday in the Big Ten Tournament.
Nebraska
KenPom rank: AdjEM 94, AdjO 146, AdjD 60
Results: (L) vs Michigan State 80-67; (W) @ Iowa 81-77
The Week That Was: The Huskers closed the regular season having won five of six. I am not exaggerating when I say they are probably the only team playing to their maximum potential at this point (I guess Minnesota might be too since that bar is incredibly low). I would not want to play the Huskers in the tournament.
Their offensive growth this season has really been remarkable. Early on, they were scuffling through games and having to win rock fights. Now, they have found something in a number of their players.
Against Iowa on Sunday, it was CJ Wilcher who was cooking with gas. He made a number of big-time shots (as did Fred Hoiberg’s son, who will remain nameless because Patrick doesn’t want to Google his name) and they completed the sweep of the Hawkeyes despite a relatively quiet game from Keisei Tominaga and Sam Griesel. I am deeply serious when I say I am openly cheering for them to run through the Big Ten Tournament and make the field.
The Week Upcoming: Nebraska gets a first-round bye against Minnesota and then draws a fading Maryland team they just beat last week.
Northwestern
KenPom rank: AdjEM 43, AdjO 103, AdjD 18
Results: (L; OT) vs. Penn State 68-65; (W) @ Rutgers 65-53
The Week That Was: Northwestern’s slide reached three games after squandering a big lead against Penn State before giving up a buzzer-beater. The Cats were able to get things back on track at Rutgers, but they do not enter the tournament playing their best ball.
Still, no team exceeded pre-season expectations more than the Wildcats. Picked near the bottom of the league by most outlets, the Cats finished as the 2-seed in the tournament. It was an incredible season that will culminate in their second-ever NCAA appearance. It’s a feel-good story in a conference that has very little to feel good about.
The Week Upcoming: The 2-seeded Purple Cats will face the winner of the Penn State/Illinois game. They’re looking to either stay on the No. 7 line nationally or bump up into a bout with one of those bubble teams as a No. 6 seed. Either is fine.
Ohio State
KenPom rank: AdjEM 57, AdjO 22, AdjD 122
Results: (W) vs Maryland 73-62; (L) @ Michigan State 84-78
The Week That Was: Ohio State won a game for the second week in a row. This is notable. The Buckeyes took advantage of the fact that Maryland is absolutely useless away from College Park and comprehensively thumped the Terps, and went on the road to Breslin for a pretty competitive showing before fading late.
The Week Upcoming: OSU finished the season as the 13-seed and will play 12-seed Wisconsin on Wednesday in the league’s first four games. If there is any mercy in the world, this season will end there. If there’s even more mercy, Ohio State will knock Wisconsin out of the goddamn bubble conversation.
Penn State
KenPom rank: AdjEm 50, AdjO 17, AdjD 119
Results: (W) at Northwestern, 68-65, OT; (W) vs. Maryland, 65-64
The Week That Was: PSU had lost four in a row heading into a Valentine’s Day date with Illinois. The Nittany Lions’ postseason hopes were almost completely gone.
Now, they’ve rattled off five wins in their last six games, including an overtime thriller at Northwestern and a buzzer-beater to end the season at home against Maryland. It’s difficult to say if these three-point shooting, no offensive rebound-grabbing beauties are on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble right now, but if they beat the Illini this week, that makes 20 wins. I think that would get it done.
The Week Upcoming: The Nittany Lions play Illinois on Thursday in the Big Ten Tournament. They’re currently Joe Lunardi’s last team to get a bye because Joe Lunardi hasn’t watched a Big Ten game since 2011. And who can blame him?
Purdue
KenPom Rank: AdjEM 6, AdjO 11, AdjD 23
Results: (W) @ Wisconsin 63-61; (W) vs Illinois 76-71
The Week That Was: The guys didn’t send me a Purdue section, instead including two separate Penn State notes. Who am I to disagree with their judgment? Purdue has been removed from the Big Ten and will be brought on “Just Big” charges.
The Week Upcoming: Purdue awaits the winner of the 8-9 game between Michigan and Rutgers, with its eyes set on a truly despicable loss to finally fall out of the one-seed conversation.
Rutgers
KenPom rank: AdjEM 42, AdjO 174, AdjD 4
Results: (L) @ Minnesota 75-74; (L) vs Northwestern 65-53
The Week That Was: I know I just said that Purdue could lose to Rutgers in the tournament, but I don’t honestly believe that. In a conference full of bad vibes, the Knights have the worst. They’ve now lost six of eight since Mawot Mag went out, including this week’s stunner at Minnesota. A game-one exit from the conference tournament could put the Knights’ tournament status in serious peril.
The Week Upcoming: Rutgers finishes with the 9-seed and faces Michigan at noon on Thursday. They’d play Purdue if they win that game.
Wisconsin
KenPom rank: AdjEm 72, AdjO 141, AdjD 26
Results: (L) vs. Purdue, 63-61; (W) at Minnesota, 71-67
The Week That Was: Wisconsin played two more extremely close games this week, and nobody enjoyed watching either of them.
First, they blew their chance at a signature win at home by losing to Purdue by two points. Zach Edey recorded 19 rebounds in 34 minutes and also wasn’t called for a single foul. AMAZING!
Then, the stupid-ass Badgers finished their season with a win at Minnesota despite trailing by seven at halftime. The Gophers are just godawful. I hope like hell that Wisconsin makes the NCAA tournament, but I’m also ecstatic for this season to be over. Sports!
The Week Upcoming: The Badgers play Ohio State on Wednesday in the Big Ten Tournament.