It’s time to preview yet another Michigan appearance on Big Noon Saturday, this time at Indiana. Like most of U-M’s season thus far, this should be a minimally stressful endeavor.
While the Hoosiers are 3-2, they’ve needed a lot of good fortune — and a win over FCS Idaho — to get there. Only two Power Five teams with winning records rank lower on ESPN’s SP+ than No. 83 IU: Arizona (96) and Vanderbilt (98). They’re only five spots above hapless, 1-4 Northwestern.
To beat future Big Ten West champion Illinois by a field goal, the Hoosiers needed a legitimate Illini touchdown to be waved off by the refs and a 4-2 edge in turnovers. To beat No. 75 Western Kentucky by a field goal in overtime, they required a 2-1 turnover advantage, a 17-point fourth quarter, a goal-line stand, a missed WKU field goal to end regulation and a blocked WKU field goal in overtime. Indiana was outgained in those two games 993-846, combined.
Sandwich those around falling behind 10-0 at halftime against Idaho before storming back to win 35-22 and you had arguably the worst undefeated team in the country through three weeks. The last two games have brought the Hoosiers back to earth with exceptional force. A merely decent Cincinnati squad thumped them by three touchdowns, then the hollowed husk of Nebraska beat them 35-21.
Last week’s loss would have a lot of coaches on the hot seat, especially in the wake of a mightily disappointing 2021 season. As I covered earlier this week, however, Indiana is over-invested in Tom Allen:
Unless there are unreported changes to Allen’s contract, IU would be stuck with a huge bill if they fired him before — oh, man — 2025. There are football programs that would eat it if the situation got dire enough. While the Hoosiers might get there on the field, I’m not sure they’re dedicated enough to football to jettison a well-liked coach with that kind of price tag.
While the IU men’s basketball team attempts to return to tradition, the football program is well on its way.
Worth Watching: Offense
Allen’s offensive coordinator hires have played a huge role in IU’s decline. Any Michigan fan correctly questioned his choice of Mike DeBord for the first two years of his tenure, but he followed up that disaster with up-and-comer Kalen DeBoer, who parlayed his one-year turnaround of the Hoosier offense into head coaching stints with Fresno State and now Washington.
Then Allen somehow reached another branch of the extended Lloyd Carr coaching tree — pictured here — and grabbed Nick Sheridan, who eventually undid all of DeBoer’s work before getting fired last offseason. His replacement, Walt Bell, coordinated mediocre offenses in short stints at Maryland and Florida State before a horrible 2-23 tenure as UMass head coach.
Surprise, the offense hasn’t turned around.
Indiana has struggled on the ground and played from behind in every game, which has led to some absurd attempt numbers for quarterback Connor Bazelak, who was mediocre in his time at Mizzou and hasn’t fared better in Bloomington:
In his last two games, Bazelak hasn’t been able to crack a 50% completion rate or five yards per attempt while throwing as many picks (3) as touchdowns. While Cincinnati boasts a good defense, Nebraska allowed at least 31 points to their four prior opponents — including NORTHWESTERN — before holding IU to 21 on Saturday. Michigan is the best group they’ve faced.
While Bazelak hasn’t played well, he also hasn’t received much help. Seven different players have dropped at least one pass. None of his main receivers have created much of anything after the catch. The offensive line has allowed 10 sacks in the last three games. Right tackle Parker Hanna, on his own, has given up 32 pressures — 23 hurries, five QB hits, and four sacks — in 237 pass block snaps.
Auburn transfer Shaun Shivers is 5-7, 188 pounds, and unable to overcome IU’s blocking. If you remove his 20-carry, 155-yard performance against Idaho, he’s mustered only 190 yards on 58 rushes (3.3 YPC). Backup Josh Henderson has fared about the same.
Much like Iowa, Indiana hasn’t displayed much creativity or big-play potential. Jesse Minter can keep call a straightforward game, let U-M’s talent prove superior and wait for Bazelak to make a big mistake.
Worth Watching: Defense
While defense is Allen’s speciality, the 2022 unit ranks 73rd in SP+, one spot ahead of Nebraska and well behind every other B1G program (Northwestern is next-worst at No. 60). Giving up 45 points to a Luke Fickell joint and 35 to a Nebraska team that just fired their offensive-minded head coach will do that.
The rushing defense has, at least, shown signs of life. In retrospect, holding Illinois to 4.7 YPC is a respectable effort, though that average occurring over the course of 51 non-sack carries adds some tough context. Nebraska managed only 163 yards on 47 rushes. Cinci got stonewalled, eking out 55 yards on 28 carries.
That all said, WKU moved the ball in chunks on the ground, averaging 6.8 YPC. While Michigan runs different schemes than both Illinois and WKU, they’ve got an objectively better rushing offense (sorry, coworker Chase Brown heads).
Meanwhile, the return of 2020 All-American cornerback Tiawan Mullen from an injury that cost him most of 2021 hasn’t reinforced the secondary as hoped. That’s Mullen, above, getting burned by former Michigan and Iowa receiver Oliver Martin.
Against a schedule not exactly bursting with explosive passing offenses, IU has let opponents throw for 8.1 yards per attempts with 13 touchdowns and only four interceptions. Mullen has been targeted 25 times, resulting in 17 completions for 217 yards and five TDs, while recording one interception and two pass breakups.
Inside linebacker Cam Jones is a one-man wrecking crew against the run. He plays at hellacious speed without making many mistakes. The rare four-star Indiana freshman, EDGE Dasan McCullough, leads the team with four sacks.
As standouts go, that’s about it. The only other defender with multiple sacks is slot corner Noah Pierre, who’s been toasted in coverage. Jones pops off the screen not only because he’s good but because he’s an obviously superior athlete to their other players.
Worth Watching: Special Teams
Ope:
Kicker Charles Campbell is 8-for-9 on field goals, including a 3-for-3 mark from 40+, and he came up huge in the late moments of the WKU game.
Prediction I Hopefully Won’t Regret
Charles Campbell will not be in a position to be the hero of this game.
The spread for this game moved in a hurry from Michigan -21.5 to -22.5 or -23, depending on where you look right now, with the vast majority of bets still being placed on the Wolverines. I recommended betting U-M at -21.5 in this week’s Free Money Store and I’d feel comfortable taking that line up to -23.5.