There aren’t many people giving Ohio State a chance in this game. But if you’re trying to talk yourself into believing the Buckeyes are going to bounce the Bulldogs in the Peach Bowl, here are your talking points.

Georgia’s Weakness is Ohio State’s Strength

Georgia has the best run defense in the country, but its secondary has been a little bit shaky this year, especially late in the season. The Bulldogs have allowed 275 yards per game in the back half of the season, including 502 yards through the air in their most recent game against LSU – most of which were to a backup quarterback.

This team has talented players in the secondary, but it has been prone to busted coverages, missed tackles, and home run plays. Against an Ohio State offense that really makes its living on chunk plays through the air,

At its best, Ohio State is probably the top passing attack in the country with arguably the top quarterback and wide receiver in the country. Georiga has shown itself to be vulnerable here, and if the offensive line gives C.J. Stroud time, this will be how Ohio State moves the ball.

This Ain’t Last Year

There’s a narrative going around that Ohio State is doomed against Georgia because the Bulldogs are just a better version of Michigan, who obviously blew out the Buckeyes in their last game. That’s an oversimplification that probably would have worked last year, but it doesn’t work as perfectly here.

Last year, Ohio State got dominated in the trenches by Michigan on almost every play on both sides of the ball, especially in the second half. No sane person would have wanted to run that back, especially against a team that was even better in the trenches.

But that’s not really how Michigan beat Ohio State this year. On the average play, the Buckeyes were actually fine. It was a break but don’t bend defensive effort where the Wolverines got 66 percent of their yardage on five plays. It was not the sustained ass-kicking that last year’s game was.

Yes, Georgia is great in the trenches. That’s going to be a challenge for Ohio State in this game. But assuming that Ohio State can’t possibly handle Georgia because of the way they played Michigan sounds like a take from someone who didn’t actually watch Ohio State play Michigan.

Ohio State’s Defense Is Built For this

Georiga’s entire offense revolves around its multi-faceted rushing attack, a pass-catching running back, and its two prolific tight ends. In an era of college football where most teams are built to defend speedy athletes in space, that presents a matchup disaster for a lot of teams. But I think Ohio State’s defense is better equipped for this than most.

Ohio State runs three safeties in its base defense, all of whom are more than capable against the run and the pass, as well as two very athletic linebackers. It also has multiple hybrid stand-up type EDGE players who can defend in space if necessary. It’s full of guys you want on the field against an offense that’s trying to attack you with tight ends and running backs in the passing game.

There’s a reason why Michael Mayer, who leads all tight ends in receiving yards this season, had just five catches for 32 yards earlier in the season.

Ryan Day Has Technically Done It Before

For all the very valid criticism of Ryan Day in big games, he has won in this situation before. And when he’s had a month to cook up an offensive game plan for a semifinal matchup like this one, he’s actually done pretty well.

I’d argue that Day’s game planning and preparation in both previous semifinal games were actually pretty solid and gave Ohio State a chance to win – and they did win one of those games in an absolute blowout.

It’s totally true that Ryan Day is just 2-4 in the games that matter – playoff games and games against Michigan – but he’s 1-1 in semifinal games, and one of those games could have and should have been a win if not for things beyond Ohio State’s control.

Vegas Knows

Currently, a whopping 75 percent of the bets placed on this game have been on Georgia to cover the spread. And yet, the line has actually moved in Ohio State’s favor from -6.5 to -6 in most markets and even -5.5 in some books.

This, folks, is what we like to call reverse line movement. And that Georgia -5.5? That would be a trap line.

What’s happening is likely a combination of two things.

First, even though 75 percent of the *bets* are placed on Georgia, that doesn’t necessarily mean 75 percent of the *money* is on Georgia. The reverse line movement indicates that even though there are a lot of bets on Georgia, those bets are probably small, casual bets from average fans compared to much larger bets on the Ohio State side that typically come from professional, sharp gamblers.

Second, the Vegas bookmakers probably knew this line was wrong all along. It’s likely that they always projected and modeled this game as closer than 6.5 points but knew that’s what the market would dictate. And now that we’re getting closer to game time, they’re trying to bait people to bet on Georgia with a lower price (that’s probably closer to what the honest line would have been in this game anyway).

TL;DR, the public, normies, and casual sports fans and sports gamblers think that Georiga is going to win in a blowout. But the sportsbooks and the people who do this for a living seem to think that this will be a closer game.

Vegas is basically begging people to bet on Georgia right now. And doing what Vegas wants you to do does not typically work out well for gamblers, historically.