This article is free for all to read. Please consider subscribing to Meet at Midfield to access more content like this every week, as well as premium podcasts and the best message board in college football.
The QB110 has arrived at its conclusion. We’re finally discussing the very top tier of quarterbacks, the Big Three that I’m sure you already have burned into your brain. Though the focus on just those three in national narratives may be somewhat annoying, I can’t disagree that they belong in their own tier.
To review how we got here, things kicked off last week by discussing 24 potential new starters in college football. Then we broke down the bottom three tiers of the returning starters, got into the good stuff in tier three with players ranked no. 32-13, and continued yesterday with the second tier as we found our way to the top dozen quarterbacks nationally.
Below, I’m going to share the process of how these rankings work. If you’ve been reading along with us the entire time, you can skip this part and head straight to the rankings and breakdowns below.
How the rankings work
We divide quarterbacks into six tiers. The sixth, and worst, is players we can say with a high degree of confidence are simply bad college starters who do not improve your ability to win and often hinder it. The fifth tier is a replacement-level college starter; nothing special going on, will basically play at the level of the offense they’re in and do nothing to elevate it. The fourth are somewhere between average and above-average starters, competent players who will steer the ship and have the potential to go off in a couple games per year.
The top three tiers are reserved for more quality players. As you may expect, they’re much smaller. The third tier guys are plus college starters who have the ability to become all-conference players or fringe draft prospects and are generally one of the best players on the offense they’re in. The second is clear studs at the college level and some of the best in the country, players capable of elevating their team to contending for conference titles or playoff spots on the right roster. The first tier is clear draft picks, Heisman contenders, etc. – players who will be mentioned all season long by college pundits and draftniks alike.
Of all the quarterbacks at the 134 FBS programs competing in 2024, I built out statistical profiles and ranked 110 quarterbacks at 86 different schools, including every single P4 program (and Wazzu, Oregon State, and Notre Dame).
This is not a perfect science. The statistical profiles are used to find disqualifiers for each quarterback, more than it is used to promote certain players. Looking at total yardage or touchdown production to predict future success is functionally useless. Given how many highly productive air raid quarterbacks or otherwise productive players at big-time programs we’ve seen whose film tells a different story, I looked for these thresholds or disqualifiers on some quarterbacks and then combined it by watching as much film as I could get my hands on to tinker from there.
The statistical disqualifiers are built on production from future draft picks in their penultimate college season. Essentially, what kind of numbers in rate-based categories like interception rate, negative play percentage, yards per attempt, average depth of target, etc. did quarterbacks who went on to be selected in the NFL Draft hit in the year before their final college season? If a quarterback failed to hit a minimum threshold or would be in a very small minority (less than 10 or 20-percent of drafted quarterbacks) in a given statistical category, it is a mark against them. Players who met most or all of the thresholds and performed excellent on film end up in the higher tiers. Players who missed several thresholds or whose film didn’t align with their production (call them a system quarterback if you’d like) are ranked in lower tiers.
Those thresholds are as follows:
- Completion percentage: 89% of drafted quarterbacks completed 60% or more of their passes, none were worse than 57.8%
- Yards per attempt: 90% were at 7.4 YPA or better, none were worse than 6.6
- Average depth of target: 90% were 8.5 ADOT or better, none were below 7.4
- Interception rate: 90% were at 3.0% or better, no one was higher than 9.1%
- Turnover-worthy play percentage (per PFF): 85% were at or under 4.0%, all but one were better than 5.6%, none were worse than 6.5%
- Pressure-to-sack rate: 88% were better than 25%, no one was worse than 32.8%
- Negative play percentage (sacks + INTs + fumbles / total snaps): 90% were 6.0% or better, all but one better than 6.59%, none worse than 7.53%
- Grade under pressure (per PFF): 82.6% better than 40, no one worse than 28.5
- Yards per carry (non-sack): 90% are at 4.2 YPC or better, none worse than -0.4
- Rush yards per game: 90% are at 6.0 yards per game or better, no one worse than -0.5
- Total yards per game: 90% are at 200 yards per game or better, no one worse than 51.8
- When it came to the new starters, many of whom are black boxes with very few snaps, I also included their 247Sports composite rankings if they’re close enough to high school for it to be a meaningful data point.
I’m sure there will be players we overlook who end up taking a leap as college players. Not all of these players being ranked are even draft eligible. There’s a lot of projection involved when we’re talking about players who are mostly 21 years old or younger. This is tricky, but the resulting tiers are our best stab at projecting quality in quarterback play across the country this season.
Today’s article will break down the second-best tier of returning quarterbacks with starting experience. They’re ranked in the top 12 nationally among returners on my board but just outside of the top three. These are, essentially, the best quarterbacks in the country other than the three that every NFL Draft-obsessed dickhead will talk about all season. Let’s get into these rankings without any more preamble.
Tier One
3. Shedeur Sanders, Colorado (via Jackson State)
Shedeur Sanders isn’t quite as high as his father on the talent or shit-talking metrics, but he’s not all that far off in either. Colorado might have had a brutal finish to the season last year, but the quarterback absolutely shined when he was able to stay upright.
Sanders flashed arm talent and command as a passer that you very rarely see in the college football ranks. His ability to hit tight windows with anticipation and excellent velocity might be the best in the college game and puts him on par with many first-round draft picks in recent years. He has excellent upper body mechanics (there’s room for improvement in the footwork) that lead to a natural, consistent over-the-top motion with a high release point, elite ball placement, and sideline-to-sideline arm strength. He’s also already making pre-snap reads and manipulating secondary players with his eyes at a very high level. There is a ton to love about Sanders’ game as a passer.
Of course, that part about being kept upright is a huge issue. The Buffaloes’ star was pressured on nearly 37-percent of his dropbacks and was sacked a stunning 49 times. Sanders could stand to improve substantially on his ability to avoid pressure; he’s not a plus athlete and the challenge is compounded by the fact that he’s flat-footed in the backfield. That often leads to him backpedaling in the face of pressure instead of staying in position to be able to step up in the pocket or outside of it. But Colorado’s offensive line was also a disaster and only three P5 quarterbacks were pressured at a higher rate. The damage added up and Sanders finished the season with a back injury; that’s a concern if it happens again, he’s slight of frame and those issues can compound.
The ball is almost never put in harm’s way when Sanders is passing the ball, but the same is not true when he’s got it in his hands. His ball security is poor and between his fumbles and the multitude of sacks, he finished with a downright bad 7.27-percent negative play percentage. For as much as he puts Colorado in excellent positions because of his arm talent and command as a passer, he gets them off schedule too often with correctable mistakes when pressured. If he can take strides on that front over the offseason, the sky’s the limit for Sanders.
When it comes to pure ability as a passer, the only player in the conversation with Sanders nationally is Carson Beck. Beck is of course working with a better supporting cast, but the mental side of his game is more advanced right now. Still, I love watching Shedeur play and I am very bullish on his upside long-term if he can avoid some of these hits and stay healthy.
2. Quinn Ewers, Texas (via Ohio State)
Last season, we talked a lot about how much Quinn Ewers could limit the instances of Bad Quinn manifesting inside of his body. It happened four-ish times in the 2022 season, far too often for a kid who only played 10 games that year. In 2023, it was more like two-ish times (Wyoming and Texas Tech and the first quarter of the Oklahoma game) while playing 12 of Texas’ 14 games. The mistakes and braindead decisions are becoming more infrequent and he’s exposing himself to injury risks less often.
When Good Quinn shows up, he looks like the second coming of young Dan Marino (without the curls and cocaine, and with about 85-percent of the arm strength). When he had a stretch throwing completing 14 of his 20 passing attempts for 216 yards in the fourth quarter against Washington in an attempted playoff comeback or posted 130 yards on seven touches in the fourth quarter against Alabama as the Longhorns posted 21 quick points and pulled away late in Tuscaloosa, you can see the shine radiating off of him. There’s almost nothing in the sport like watching Ewers get hot in a big game.
However, even as he’s raised his floor, the former No. 1 overall recruit remains streaky. There are times where he unleashes a ridiculous ball at an arm angle that a handful of guys in the world have the arm elasticity to get to and your jaw drops. There are also times where his mechanics look completely stiff and you wonder what the hell he’s looking at while he sails a ball eight yards past his receiver. He might be the most baffling quarterback in college football.
Ewers isn’t great under pressure. He was pressured on 107 of his 452 dropbacks and it led to 26 sacks, 14 throwaways, and just 35 completions on 67 pass attempts. Bafflingly though, none of his six interceptions on the season came when he was facing pressure. He just gets the itch to activate that bozo gene when he has time but doesn’t see anything open quickly.
The best of Quinn is when you see him on the move or navigating in the pocket and watch him find a way to position himself to get torque on the ball and either fire a ball off-platform with that incredible arm or get his feet under him and really step into a throw at a time when most quarterbacks couldn’t. His ability to find his mechanics when it breaks down for most others and to get creative with his launch points is what makes him special.
The good for Ewers clearly outweighs the bad, but it doesn’t mean that the bad isn’t incredibly frustrating. He can look like a completely different quarterback from drive to drive and seems totally disengaged on the field at times, but then he just catches fire and unleashes one of the best passing attacks in college football.
If the trendline of Ewers learning to hide the Bad Quinn more often continues into his third year as a starter, then we’re looking at a first-round draft pick with an All-American season and 4,000-plus yards of offense. If he’s already maxed out going into his age-21 season or the injuries pile up more, then it’s hard to know what to expect. I just have the sense that we haven’t seen Ewers’ best yet and that best could be exhilarating.
(Also, as an aside, Sanders has the better arm between these two and the narrative on this should be flipped)
1. Carson Beck, Georgia
As much as any quarterback for the national title favorite Georgia Bulldogs possibly can be, Carson Beck was pretty damn anonymous coming into the 2023 season. Beck signed with Georgia as the no. 19 quarterback in his class, the 16th-best recruit in Georgia’s 2020 class, and ranked outside of the top 250 overall. From 2020-22, he had attempted just 58 passes with pedestrian results and looked totally unremarkable while riding the bench behind Stetson Bennett and sharing the roster with hyped five-stars J.T. Daniels and Brock Vandagriff.
After that? Well, he went fucking supernova and threw for damn year 4,000 yards while Georgia went 13-1 and posted its seventh consecutive top seven finish in the AP poll under Kirby Smart. At 6-foot-4 and 220 pounds, Beck looked like a prototype pocket passer during his breakout season. He ranked in the top ten on my statistical profiles in completion percentage, yards per attempt, interception rate, negative play percentage, and grade under pressure and was just outside in turnover-worthy play rate and total yards per game. When it came to standing in the pocket and slinging the football, Beck was nearly perfect.
Beck’s velocity and arm strength aren’t elite, but they are more than good enough to hit any throw that Georgia asked him to make and just about any throw in the NFL. The ball placement and layered throws you’ll see from him in the intermediate and deep thirds are excellent, as is his timing on hitting a back-shoulder throw. When he correctly diagnoses a defense pre-snap, his timing and internal clock are truly excellent. Likewise, when he feels comfortable and in rhythm and he trusts his read, he has a really smooth and quick delivery and an ultra-efficient motion overall, with his feet staying tied to his eyes.
If you want to poke holes in Beck as a passer, there are times where you can clearly see the wheels in his head turning. There are just a few too many reps where he’s patting the ball or double-clutching and because of Georgia’s excellent offensive line, he was often allowed to wait until a receiver actually came open instead of anticipating that happening. Beck comfortably handled edge pressure by stepping up in the pocket, but on the rarer occasions where that stout interior group on the line got pushed back into his feet, his timing was noticeably off and he panicked a little bit. Truthfully, those are nitpicks and not larger concerns, it’s extremely fixable for a player with just 14 games of starting experience.
The problem for Beck that’s less fixable is his comparative lack of athleticism as a runner. The Bulldogs ran exactly three designed runs for him on 869 offensive snaps. He averaged just over six yards per carry on his scrambles, which is fine, but you can tell he’s really not comfortable doing it. He’s not Mac Jones, but he’s definitely not a plus rushing threat.
I do think Beck is head and shoulders the best draft prospect and college quarterback in the game today, but there is one more question in the back of my head: what does Georgia’s passing game look like without Ladd McConkey and Brock Bowers? Those two veterans and top 40 draft picks are gone. Beck completed 79.6-percent of his passes targeting the pair for exactly 1200 yards (11.1 yards per attempt) and eight touchdowns.
It’s hard to say if it will ultimately matter. Georgia has 22 former blue-chips or highly-regarded transfers in its skill positions alone, 8 of whom are former top 100 recruits; they won’t be hurting for talent. And Beck was still fantastic when going to his other targets – he completed 69.7-percent of his passes to everyone else for 8.9 yards per attempt. Those are great numbers for any quarterback on a season overall, but the interceptions crept up and the timing with everyone else was clearly a bit different than with those two pros. Nothing disastrous, obviously, but not in the heady territory he was in with Bowers and McConkey on the other end of his targets. Maybe that will matter and maybe it won’t, Beck might just be a machine.
Final Thoughts
Going into the 2024 season, I don’t know how I could possibly call anyone other than Carson Beck the best quarterback in the college game and the most likely to be the first off of the board in the 2025 NFL Draft. Beck had Georgia’s offense on a string and he looked unbelievably poised from jump street for a quarterback with so little experience before the season.
I think that Beck has some excellent tools as a passer, but I don’t think he’s physically dominant or experienced enough to rule out the idea that he could be overtaken by another quarterback. He’s not an unimpeachable shoe-in for a Heisman Trophy or the no. 1 overall slot in the draft. Both Ewers and Sanders are arguably more toolsy than Beck. There are other quarterbacks I wouldn’t bet on to achieve their potential this year, but who have massive upside; Dart, Daniels, Weigman, Ward, Leonard, and Milroe, among others, have shown flashes of something that could be tremendous with more refinement.
The rankings I’ve published over the last two weeks have been primarily college-focused with some eye towards future pro potential. However, I’ll take a stab at looking purely at draftability. Below are my rankings of the quarterbacks I view as most likely to be drafted this year in the 2025 draft class. These are not ordered in the order I would draft them in were they all available right now, but rather the likelihood that they are drafted in any round in 2025.
Other than the obvious question of ability and desirable traits that translate to the league, I’m pricing in experience, remaining eligibility, age, and injury history
- Carson Beck, Georgia
- Quinn Ewers, Texas
- Shedeur Sanders, Colorado – His negative play percentage is below the previously drafted threshold, but he’s going pro and he’ll obviously be taken
- Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss
- Brady Cook, Missouri
- Conner Weigman, Texas A&M
- Riley Leonard, Notre Dame – The accuracy numbers and injuries are both big concerns, but hard to drop him much further than this based on what we know about the NFL’s interest
- Jalon Daniels, Kansas – Injuries are a major concern, but everything else looks great
- Will Howard, Ohio State
- Preston Stone, SMU
- Kaidon Salter, Liberty
- Cam Ward, Miami (Fla.)
- Jalen Milroe, Alabama – I think he’ll need the third starting year
- Seth Henigan, Memphis
- Noah Fifita, Arizona – It’s just size holding him back here
- Grayson McCall, NC State – Age is the biggest issue, he’s simply old as hell
- Drew Allar, Penn State
- Miller Moss, USC
- Garrett Nussmeier, LSU
- Joey Aguilar, App State
HM: Donovan Smith (Houston), Dillon Gabriel (Oregon), Cam Rising (Utah), DJ Uiagalelei (Florida State), Graham Mertz (Florida), Kyron Drones (Virginia Tech), Byrum Brown (USF)
Final QB110
- Carson Beck, Georgia
- Quinn Ewers, Texas
- Shedeur Sanders, Colorado
- Dillon Gabriel, Oregon
- Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss
- Jalon Daniels, Kansas
- Kaidon Salter, Liberty
- Conner Weigman, Texas A&M
- Preston Stone, SMU
- Cam Rising, Utah
- Brady Cook, Missouri
- Noah Fifita, Arizona
- Cam Ward, Miami
- Will Howard, Ohio State
- Riley Leonard, Notre Dame
- Seth Henigan, Memphis
- DJ Uigalelei, Florida State
- Grayson McCall, NC State
- Jalen Milroe, Alabama
- Miller Moss, USC
- Garrett Greene, West Virginia
- Graham Mertz, Florida
- Garrett Nussmeier, LSU
- DeQuan Finn, Baylor
- Rocco Becht, Iowa State
- Nico Iamaleava, Tennessee
- Drew Allar, Penn State
- Joey Aguilar, App State
- Byrum Brown, USF
- Donovan Smith, Houston
- Kyron Drones, Virginia Tech
- Jordan McCloud, Texas State
- Jacob Zeno, UAB
- Matthew Sluka, UNLV
- Blake Shapen, Mississippi State
- Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt
- TJ Finley, Western Kentucky
- Aidan Chiles, Michigan State
- Kurtis Rourke, Indiana
- Brock Vandagriff, Kentucky
- Hank Bachmeier, Wake Forest
- Jaylen Raynor, Arkansas State
- Chandler Rogers, Cal
- Brayden Schager, Hawaii
- Will Rogers, Washington
- Avery Johnson, Kansas State
- Tyler Van Dyke, Wisconsin
- Jackson Arnold, Oklahoma
- Josh Hoover, TCU
- KJ Jefferson, UCF
- Gevani McCoy, Oregon State
- Tyler Shough, Louisville
- Haynes King, Georgia Tech
- Max Johnson, North Carolina
- Anthony Colandrea, Virginia
- Ethan Garbers, UCLA
- Mikey Keene, Fresno State
- Jayden Maiava, USC
- Cade Klubnik, Clemson
- Kyle McCord, Syracuse
- Hudson Card, Purdue
- Zevi Eckhaus, Wazzu
- Max Brosmer, Minnesota
- Alan Bowman, OK State
- Brett Gabbert, Miami (OH)
- Ben Gulbranson, Oregon State
- Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi, Colorado State
- LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina
- Thomas Castellanos, Boston College
- Alex Orji, Michigan
- Luke Altmyer, Illinois
- Nicholas Vattiato, Middle Tennessee State
- Brendan Sorsby, Cincinnati
- Maalik Murphy, Duke
- Malachi Nelson, Boise State
- Fernando Mendoza, Cal
- Cam Fancher, FAU
- Payton Thorne, Auburn
- Ty Thompson, Tulane
- Nate Yarnell, Pitt
- Ashton Daniels, Stanford
- Bryson Barnes, Utah State
- Taylen Green, Arkansas
- AJ Swann, LSU
- Keyone Jenkins, FIU
- Tony Muskett, Virginia
- Jeff Sims, Arizona State
- Jase Bauer, Sam Houston State
- Taisun Phommachanh, UMass
- Gerry Bohannon, BYU
- Hayden Wolff, Western Michigan
- Grant Wilson, Old Dominion
- MJ Morris, Maryland
- Robby Ashford, South Carolina
- Mike Wright, Northwestern
- Connor Bazelak, Bowling Green
- Jake Retzlaff, BYU
- Gavin Wimsatt, Kentucky
- Cade McNamara, Iowa
- Brendan Sullivan, Iowa
- Trenton Bourguet, Arizona State
- Behren Morton, Texas Tech
- Ken Seals, TCU
- Devin Brown, Ohio State
- Billy Edwards, Maryland
- Sam Leavitt, Arizona State
- Cole Snyder, Eastern Michigan
- Kiael Kelly, Ball State
- Athan Kaliakmanis, Rutgers
- Heinrich Haarberg, Nebraska
This article is free for all to read. Please consider subscribing to Meet at Midfield to access more content like this every week, as well as premium podcasts and the best message board in college football.